Sudan’s Fracturing Future: From Famine to Fragile Ceasefire and the Rise of a New Regional Order
A chilling statistic underscores the gravity of the situation in Sudan: over 150,000 lives lost and 14 million displaced. But beyond the numbers lies a rapidly evolving conflict, one that’s not just a civil war, but a stark illustration of a shifting global power dynamic. The recent fall of El Fasher, and the simultaneous, tentative steps toward a ceasefire, aren’t anomalies – they’re symptoms of a nation fracturing along economic and political lines, and a world increasingly willing to look away.
The Siege of El Fasher and the Specter of Famine
The capture of El Fasher by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after an 18-month siege marks a devastating turning point. This city, the last major stronghold of the Sudanese army in Darfur, held symbolic and strategic importance. The RSF, a paramilitary group with roots in the Janjaweed militias accused of genocide in the 2000s, now controls much of western Sudan and vital gold-producing regions. Reports from the ground, including disturbing imagery, suggest widespread atrocities following the city’s fall. Compounding the tragedy, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has declared a famine in both El Fasher and Kadguli, a grim echo of similar declarations in Gaza, highlighting a global crisis of food insecurity.
The Displaced and the Missing: A Disturbing Silence
Perhaps the most unsettling aspect of the El Fasher crisis is the surprisingly low number of displaced people fleeing to nearby cities like Tawila. As Arjan Hehenkamp of the International Rescue Committee noted, the scarcity of adult men among those displaced raises a harrowing question: where are the rest of the population? This suggests targeted violence and a deliberate attempt to dismantle the city’s resistance, a chilling prospect that demands further investigation. The lack of comprehensive reporting from within El Fasher only deepens the concern.
The Economic Engine of Conflict: Darfur’s Gold
The RSF’s control over Darfur isn’t merely about territory; it’s about economics. The region is rich in gold mines, providing the RSF with a crucial source of funding, despite an international arms embargo. This illicit trade fuels the conflict and allows the RSF to circumvent international pressure, highlighting the complex interplay between resource control and political power. Understanding this economic dimension is critical to grasping the longevity of the conflict.
A Shifting International Landscape and the Role of “Middle Powers”
For years, Sudan has been slipping down the priority list for the United States. However, recent developments suggest a renewed, albeit cautious, engagement. The appointment of Massad Boulos, Trump’s son-in-law, as a special envoy to Africa signals a potential shift in US policy. But the real power brokers in this conflict aren’t necessarily the traditional superpowers. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as a key player, allegedly providing significant support to the RSF, despite denials. This backing, documented in a recent UN report, underscores the growing influence of “middle powers” in shaping conflicts across the Middle East and Africa.
The Quad’s Proposal and the UAE’s Reassessment
The recent peace proposal put forward by the Quad – the US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE – is significant precisely because it brings together nations backing opposing sides. Egypt and the UAE’s willingness to engage in a joint diplomatic effort, despite their divergent interests, represents a small but crucial step forward. The UAE’s recent admission of a “mistake” in backing the 2019 coup suggests a potential reassessment of its Sudan policy, driven by reputational costs and the growing international scrutiny of its role in fueling the conflict. However, skepticism remains about the sincerity of this shift.
A “Hurting Stalemate” and the Prospect of a Divided Sudan
The war in Sudan appears to have entered a “hurting stalemate,” where neither side can achieve a decisive victory. The RSF’s establishment of a parallel government in Darfur suggests a consolidation of control over its existing territory, rather than a push for complete dominance. This points towards a potential long-term division of Sudan, with the east remaining under the control of the army and the west effectively governed by the RSF. Drone strikes launched by the RSF into army-controlled territory demonstrate that even in a stalemate, the conflict remains volatile.
The Future of Conflict: Lessons from Sudan
Sudan’s war is a microcosm of 21st-century conflicts: a hybrid of civil war and international proxy battles, characterized by waning US influence, the rise of regional powers, and the proliferation of drones and foreign military contractors. It’s a conflict where international norms are fraying, and the protection of civilians is increasingly compromised. The situation in Sudan serves as a stark warning about the dangers of unchecked regional competition and the devastating consequences of ignoring humanitarian crises. The path forward requires a sustained and coordinated international effort, focused not only on a ceasefire but also on addressing the underlying economic and political grievances that fuel the conflict. What role will the US play in mediating a lasting peace, and can the international community hold actors like the UAE accountable for their actions?
Explore more insights on Sudan’s political landscape at the Council on Foreign Relations.
What are your predictions for the future of Sudan? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
