Is 2026 the Year to Finally Buy a Home? 22 Cities Where Prices Could Fall
Thinking about taking the plunge into homeownership? Hold that thought. A new forecast from Realtor.com suggests waiting until 2026 could unlock a significantly more buyer-friendly market, particularly in 22 major U.S. cities. While national home prices are projected to rise modestly, a confluence of factors – increasing supply, cooling demand, and moderate mortgage rates – points to potential price drops in specific areas.
The Shifting Real Estate Landscape: What’s Driving the Change?
For the past few years, the real estate market has been anything but predictable. Fueled by pandemic-era demand for space, remote work opportunities, and historically low mortgage rates, many southern and western cities experienced explosive growth. But that boom is cooling. Realtor.com predicts the average 30-year mortgage rate will hover around 6.3% in 2026, and while national housing prices are expected to increase by 2.2%, inflation could negate much of that gain, leaving affordability relatively stable – or even slightly down.
The key driver behind this shift? Supply and demand. Existing home inventory is projected to increase by 8.9%, and new construction is expected to grow by 3.1%. This increased supply, coupled with waning buyer urgency, is creating a more balanced market, giving buyers more leverage.
Why These 22 Cities Are Projected to See Price Declines
The cities most likely to experience price drops in 2026 are those that saw the most dramatic price increases during the pandemic. These areas are now facing a correction as demand normalizes and the market adjusts to increased inventory. Here’s a breakdown of the cities Realtor.com forecasts will see price declines:
- Atlanta–Sandy Springs–Roswell, Georgia – 0.1%
- Boise City, Idaho – 0.8%
- Cape Coral–Fort Myers, Florida – 10.2%
- Colorado Springs, Colorado – 0.4%
- Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach, Florida – 3.6%
- Denver–Aurora–Lakewood, Colorado – 3.4%
- Des Moines–West Des Moines, Iowa – 0.9%
- Jacksonville, Florida – 1.4%
- Lakeland–Winter Haven, Florida – 0.2%
- North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton, Florida – 8.9%
- Omaha–Council Bluffs, Nebraska–Iowa – 0.4%
- Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford, Florida – 1.6%
- Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville, Florida – 1.0%
- Phoenix–Mesa–Scottsdale, Arizona – 2.3%
- Raleigh, North Carolina – 3.7%
- Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, California – 3.3%
- San Francisco–Oakland–Hayward, California – 2.5%
- Spokane–Spokane Valley, Washington – 3.5%
- Stockton–Lodi, California – 4.1%
- Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater, Florida – 3.6%
- Tucson, Arizona – 0.5%
- Wichita, Kansas – 3.2%
Pro Tip: Don’t automatically dismiss cities not on this list. Local market conditions can vary significantly. Research specific neighborhoods and consult with a local real estate agent for the most accurate assessment.
What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?
For prospective homebuyers, 2026 could present a golden opportunity. More options, less competition, and potentially lower prices could translate into a more favorable negotiating position. However, it’s crucial to remember that these are forecasts, and market conditions can change.
Sellers, on the other hand, may need to adjust their expectations. While a significant market crash isn’t predicted, they may need to be more realistic about pricing and prepared for a longer time on the market.
Beyond the Headlines: Factors to Watch in 2026
While the Realtor.com forecast provides valuable insights, several other factors could influence the housing market in 2026. These include:
- Inflation: Continued inflation could erode any nominal price gains, impacting affordability.
- Interest Rates: Further fluctuations in mortgage rates will significantly impact buyer demand.
- Economic Growth: A strong economy could bolster demand, offsetting some of the supply increases.
- Demographic Trends: Shifts in population and household formation will continue to shape housing needs.
Expert Insight: “The housing market is incredibly complex, and predicting the future is always challenging,” says Dr. Emily Carter, a leading real estate economist. “However, the current trends suggest a shift towards a more balanced market in 2026, offering opportunities for both buyers and sellers.”
Preparing for a Potential Buyer’s Market
Whether you’re a buyer or a seller, proactive preparation is key. Buyers should start getting their finances in order now – checking credit scores, saving for a down payment, and getting pre-approved for a mortgage. Sellers should consider making necessary repairs and improvements to their homes to maximize their appeal.
Key Takeaway: The 2026 real estate market is shaping up to be more balanced, potentially favoring buyers in specific areas. Staying informed and preparing accordingly will be crucial for navigating this evolving landscape.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Will all housing markets experience price declines in 2026?
A: No, the Realtor.com forecast predicts price declines in 22 specific cities. Other markets may see modest increases or remain relatively stable.
Q: What is considered a “moderate” mortgage rate?
A: Realtor.com projects an average 30-year mortgage rate of around 6.3% in 2026. This is considered moderate compared to the higher rates seen in recent years.
Q: How can I stay updated on local market conditions?
A: Consult with a local real estate agent, monitor local news and market reports, and utilize online real estate portals to track listing prices and inventory levels.
Q: Is now a bad time to buy if I need a home immediately?
A: If you have an immediate need, waiting isn’t practical. Focus on finding a home that fits your budget and needs, and be prepared to negotiate.
What are your predictions for the housing market in 2026? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
