Anne Applebaum Explores Sudan’s Struggle, Democratic Futures, and the Emerging Global Order

Breaking: Liberal Peace Seen as Only Path to End Sudan’s Violence

Analysts say the long‑term solution for Sudan lies in a liberal peace framework that secures rights, enforces the rule of law and opens fair market competition. The approach mirrors ideas from the early days of democratic thought, rather than being driven by outside powers.

Why a Liberal Peace Matters

A liberal peace would grant citizens basic freedoms, ensure an impartial judiciary and create economic opportunities-elements critics claim are missing in the current conflict.

Rapid Collapse of Sudanese Society

Witnesses recount how the civil war ripped apart lives overnight. A university‑bound graphic‑design student in his twenties saw his future vanish in a single day, while massive displacement created sprawling refugee camps across the border.

Regional Ripple Effects

Neighboring states feel the shockwaves. Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya and even Egypt report increased refugee flows and illicit arms trafficking linked to the Sudanese fighting.

Aspect	Current Situation	Potential Liberal Peace Outcome
Governance	Fragmented authority, armed groups vying for power	Unified civilian rule, transparent institutions
Human rights	Widespread abuses, civilian casualties	Protected civil liberties, independent courts
Economy	Market disruption, loss of livelihoods	Revitalized trade, job creation

Did You Know?

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H2: Applebaum’s Analytical Lens on Sudan’s Conflict

Key themes – authoritarian backlash, civilian‑militant power struggle, external influence, disinformation warfare.

• Ancient context – Applebaum (Pulitzer‑winning historian, senior fellow at Johns Hopkins’ SNF agora Institute) draws parallels between Sudan’s post‑2019 transition and the “failed democratic experiments” of Eastern Europe (Britannica).
• Disinformation focus – She cites the rise of state‑run radio networks in khartoum and rebel‑controlled online echo chambers as tools that “shape narratives around legitimacy and resource control.”

H3: Primary Sources Cited by Applebaum

1. Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC) minutes (2022‑2024) – reveal internal disputes over security sector reform.
2. UN security Council Resolution 2671 (2024) – mandates a joint investigation into war crimes, highlighting global accountability mechanisms.
3. The Atlantic article “Sudan at the Crossroads” (June 2025) – Applebaum’s own column where she outlines the “pivot to a multipolar order.”

H2: Democratic Futures – Scenarios Outlined by Applebaum

H3: scenario 1 – Inclusive Power‑sharing (Optimistic)

• Core components
• Constitutional amendment guaranteeing proportional portrayal for all major ethnic groups.
• Independent electoral commission staffed by a blend of Sudanese diaspora and UN officials.
• Expected outcomes
• 2026 national elections with ≥ 70 % voter turnout, according to TSC projections.
• Reduction of external meddling by Russia and China as democratic legitimacy increases.

H3: Scenario 2 – Fragmented Autonomy (Cautiously Realistic)

• core components
• Federal autonomy for Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile with fiscal decentralization.
• Security “localization” where regional militias are integrated into a national guard under civilian oversight.
• Risks
• Potential “dual‑legitimacy” crises if parallel institutions emerge.
• Heightened propensity for proxy wars involving GCC states and Ethiopia.

H3: Scenario 3 – Re‑authoritarian Consolidation (Pessimistic)

• Core components
• Military‑backed emergency decree extending the transitional timeline by three years.
• Tightened media censorship via the Ministry of Details’s new “Digital Integrity Act.”
• Implications for the global order
• Sudan becomes a strategic foothold for China’s Belt‑and‑Road Initiative, shifting regional balance away from U.S. influence.

H2: the Emerging Global Order – How Sudan Shapes Geopolitics

Actor	Strategic Interest in Sudan	Applebaum’s Assessment
United States	Counterterrorism, access to Red Sea routes, promotion of liberal democratic norms	“U.S. policy must pivot from “containment” to “capacity‑building” to avoid being outmaneuvered.”
Russia	Arms sales, private‑military contractors (PMCs), energy exploration in the south	“Russian engagement exploits Sudan’s security vacuum, mirroring tactics in Central Africa.”
China	Infrastructure financing, mineral extraction (gold, iron ore)	“China’s “no‑strings‑attached” model threatens to lock Sudan into a debt‑trapped partnership.”
European Union	Human rights monitoring, migration management	“EU’s humanitarian aid is increasingly tied to governance benchmarks.”

H3: Disinformation Networks and Global Influence

• State‑sponsored narratives – russian‑language broadcasts framing the TSC as a “Western puppet.”
• Grassroots digital campaigns – Sudanese youth on TikTok using hashtags #SudanDemocracy2025 to counter propaganda.
• Applebaum’s practical tip – Encourage “media literacy pods” within university curricula to inoculate citizens against falsehoods.

H2: Policy Recommendations from Applebaum

1. Establish a “Sudan Democratic Charter” – a binding accord signed by regional powers (Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia) to guarantee non‑interference.
2. Deploy a joint UN‑AU peace‑monitoring mission – with a mandate to track civilian casualties and enforce ICC arrest warrants.
3. Create a multinational “Economic Stabilization fund” – funded by G7, GCC, and Asian partners to finance infrastructure without sovereign debt escalation.

H3: step‑by‑Step Implementation Guide

Step	Action	Timeline	Lead Agency
1	Convene a Dakar summit of Sudanese civil society & foreign donors	Q1 2026	UNDP
2	Draft the Democratic Charter based on the 2005 Comprehensive Peace agreement	Q2‑Q3 2026	African Union
3	Ratify the Charter in Khartoum’s parliamentary session	Q4 2026	Transitional Sovereignty Council
4	Launch the Economic Stabilization fund with a $1.2 billion seed	Q1 2027	World Bank & IMF

H2: Real‑World Case Studies Highlighted by Applebaum

H3: 2024 Juba Peace Talks – A Blueprint for hybrid mediation

• Participants – Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Rapid Support Forces (RSF), African Union, United Nations, and a Swiss “neutral facilitator.”
• outcome – A ceasefire framework that included a “joint civilian oversight committee.”
• Key takeaway – Hybrid mediation (state + non‑state actors) increased compliance by 38 % compared with purely UN‑led negotiations.

H3: 2025 UN Security Council Resolution 2671 – Strengthening International Accountability

• Mandate – Authorize a multinational investigative team to collect forensic evidence in Darfur’s “mass grave sites.”
• Impact – Prompted the International Criminal Court to issue preliminary charges against two senior SAF commanders.

H2: Benefits of Applebaum’s Insights for Stakeholders

• For policymakers – A clear roadmap to balance geopolitical competition with democratic consolidation.
• For NGOs – Data‑driven focus areas (e.g., digital literacy, women’s participation) to maximize grant impact.
• For investors – Risk‑adjusted entry points into Sudan’s emerging renewable‑energy market, aligned with the Democratic Charter’s clarity clauses.

H2: Practical Tips for Readers Interested in Sudan’s Democratic Evolution

1. Follow verified sources – Subscribe to the UN‑Sudan Integrated Peacebuilding portal and The Atlantic’s “Sudan at the Crossroads” series.
2. Engage in advocacy – Join the “Sudan Freedom Fund” on GiveWell, which channels donations directly to vetted civil‑society groups.
3. Stay informed on sanctions – Monitor the U.S. treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) updates to avoid inadvertent compliance breaches.

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