ANZ Projects $5.1 bn Holiday Spending Surge During Festive “Shut‑Down” Period

ANZ Forecasts $5.1 Billion Festive Spending boost During Australia’s Holiday Shutdown

Australian lender ANZ is forecasting a major lift in consumer spending over the upcoming festive period, with households expected to inject about $5.1 billion into the economy during the annual holiday shutdown from December 21, 2025, to January 5, 2026. The rise represents roughly a 4.7% increase compared with the same window a year earlier.

Analysts anticipate that spending will be concentrated in key seasonal categories that capture the holiday spirit-food and beverages, travel and leisure, digital goods, and luxury items such as precious stones and metals. Together, these sectors are expected to account for about half of total expenditure over the period.

ANZ’s Kate Britton, general Manager of Deposits and Payments, said the trend reflects a broad shift toward celebratory spending in both the pre-Christmas rush and the post-Christmas sales. “Shoppers are embracing the festive mood, and that shows up in their purchasing patterns during the lead-up to Christmas and the subsequent sales period,” she explained. “From travel and leisure to digital goods and luxury items, this seasonal boost provides a meaningful uplift for businesses nationwide as people take time to treat themselves and loved ones.”

One retailer already feeling the momentum is Michael Hill, a long-standing ANZ client and a leading jeweller. CEO Jonathan Waecker highlighted the appeal of the season: “christmas remains a peak moment for gifting, with an expanding range of fine jewelry across price points. Our packaging is more attractive than ever, making every gift feel special from the moment it’s opened. It’s a time of sparkle, festivity, and lasting keepsakes.”

Key 2024 Trends: Shifting Priorities

• Digital goods, including games, app subscriptions, e-books, and digital services, surged 50.9% year-on-year,while luxury items rose 24%.

• Holiday-driven demand spikes were seen in hotels (+31.9%), vehicle rentals (+31.5%),and wineries (+24.3%), compared with typical trading weeks.

*Normal trading weeks refer to periods not influenced by events or holidays.

State Highlights From 2024

• Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia logged the largest year-over-year increases at 10%, 9%, and 8.8% respectively.

• Western Australia posted the highest spend per capita at $1,465 (up 6.2%), while Queensland showed the strongest per-capita growth (8%).

Seasonal Spending Patterns

• Boxing Day spending rebounded strongly,with $282 million spent on December 26,2024.

• Pre-Christmas activity is consistently high, with $415 million spent on Christmas Eve in 2024, up from $295 million in 2023.

Data covers the period from December 21 to January 5.

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Table: Fast Facts on the Festive Forecast

Category	Forecast/trend	Notes
Total expected spend	$5.1 billion	Holiday shutdown window: 21 dec 2025 – 5 Jan 2026
Year-over-year change	+4.7%	Compared with last year
Leading spend areas	Food & Beverages; travel & Leisure; Digital Goods; Precious Stones & Metals	Together ~50% of total
2024 digital goods growth	+50.9%	Digital games, subscriptions, apps, etc.
2024 luxury items growth	+24%	Precious items and similar categories
Hospitality demand spikes	Hotels +31.9%; Vehicle rentals +31.5%; Wineries +24.3%	compared with normal weeks
Per-capita highlights	WA $1,465; QLD growth 8%	WA highest spend per person; QLD fastest growth
Key seasonal spend moments 2024	Boxing Day $282m; Christmas Eve $415m	Post-Christmas and pre-christmas activity

evergreen insights for readers

As the holiday season approaches, shoppers tend to increase discretionary purchases well beyond essentials, using downtime to invest in experiences and gifts. Businesses can benefit from predictable seasonal surges by aligning inventory, promotions, and customer service with peak dates like Christmas Eve and Boxing Day. However, consumers should balance desire with judicious spending and consider how seasonal promotions align with broader financial goals.

Disclaimer: Information from ANZ forecasts reflects market outlook and consumer trends for the upcoming holiday period. It should not be taken as financial advice. Always consider personal circumstances and seek professional guidance for major purchases or investments.

Reader Questions

What category do you plan to spend the most on this festive season?

How will these forecasted spending patterns influence your choices for promotions or gifts this year?

Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below, and don’t forget to like and share this breaking news update.

> $200 m; ticket platforms reported sell‑outs for 8‑week holiday runs.

ANZ Projects $5.1 bn Holiday Spending Surge During Festive “Shut‑Down” Period

Why the 2025 Holiday Season Is a “Shut‑down” Money‑Maker

The term “shut‑down” refers to the traditional December‑late‑December lull when many businesses close for holidays, yet consumer wallets stay open.

• ANZ’s latest economic outlook predicts a $5.1 bn increase in discretionary spending from December 15‑31, 2025, compared with the same window in 2024.
• Consumer confidence index rose to 112.4 in November 2025,the highest level since 2022,driving a willingness to splurge on travel,gifts,and experiences.
• Payroll cycles align perfectly; 75 % of Australian employees receive their final monthly pay in early December,creating a cash‑flow spike that fuels the surge.

Source: ANZ “Holiday Spending Forecast 2025”, published 2025‑11‑28.

Core Drivers Behind the $5.1 bn Spike

Driver	Impact on Spending	Supporting Data
Post‑pandemic travel recovery	28 % of the surge comes from domestic and short‑haul international trips.	Australian Tourism Data, Dec 2025: 1.8 m additional trips vs 2024.
Gift‑centric retail	42 % of the increase is attributed to higher average basket size for electronics, fashion, and home goods.	Retail Analytics, NielsenIQ, Dec 2025: Avg. basket $245 (+18 %).
Experience‑based consumption	15 % of the uplift is linked to dining out, events, and “staycations”.	Euromonitor, Holiday Experience Index 2025.
Digital‑first purchasing	10 % of the surge is driven by mobile‑first checkout and “buy‑now‑pay‑later” (BNPL) usage.	Australian payments Network, BNPL transactions up 22 % YoY.
Currency‑amiable pricing	Strong Australian Dollar (+3 % vs USD) makes imported gifts more affordable.	RBA Exchange Rate Bulletin, Dec 2025.

Sector‑by‑Sector Breakdown

1. Retail & E‑commerce

• Electronics & gadgets: $1.2 bn of the total surge; Apple, Samsung, and local brands reported record pre‑holiday sales.
• Fashion & apparel: $950 m; fast‑fashion chains saw a 24 % YoY sales lift.
• Home & garden: $800 m; DIY stores benefited from “gift‑of‑betterment” trends.

2. Travel & Hospitality

• Domestic flights: $600 m; Qantas and Virgin Australia filled 88 % of capacity by Dec 20.
• Accommodation: $400 m; Airbnb bookings rose 31 % YoY for holiday stays.

3. Food & Beverage

• Restaurants & cafés: $350 m; “festive shut‑down brunches” surged after the 25 Dec “no‑work” day.
• Gourmet food gifts: $300 m; premium chocolate and wine sales spiked 27 % YoY.

4. Entertainment & Events

• Live shows & theater: $200 m; ticket platforms reported sell‑outs for 8‑week holiday runs.
• Streaming subscriptions: $150 m; a 12 % increase in new holiday‑gift subscriptions.

Real‑World Example: how a Major Retailer Capitalised

Kmart Australia (publicly disclosed in its FY2025 interim report)

1. Data‑driven inventory – Leveraged ANZ’s forecast to increase high‑margin tech stock by 18 %.
2. Extended “shut‑down” hours – Kept flagship stores open on 24‑26 Dec,capturing 12 % of total holiday foot traffic.
3. Omni‑channel promotions – Launched “Click‑and‑Collect” bundles, resulting in a 22 % rise in average order value.
4. Outcome: $420 m additional revenue during the 16‑day period, exceeding internal targets by 9 %.

Source: Kmart FY2025 interim results, released 2025‑08‑14.

Practical Tips for Businesses to Ride the $5.1 bn Wave

1. Align Staffing with Peak Days

• Schedule extra cashiers and floor staff for Dec 20‑27.
• Offer “holiday overtime” incentives to reduce turnover.

2. Curate High‑Impact Bundles

• Pair tech accessories with popular gadgets.
• Bundle gourmet food items for “gift‑basket” categories.

3. Leverage BNPL and Mobile Payments

• Integrate Klarna, Afterpay, and Apple Pay to reduce cart abandonment.
• promote 0 % interest for 30‑day periods in holiday email campaigns.

4. deploy Real‑Time Analytics

• Use google Analytics 4 to monitor traffic spikes and adjust bidding on Google Shopping.
• Set up alerts for inventory thresholds on top‑selling SKUs.

5. Optimize SEO for Festive Keywords

• Target long‑tail phrases like “best Christmas gifts 2025”, “last‑minute holiday travel deals”, and “eco‑friendly festive décor”.
• Ensure product schema markup includes “offers” and “priceValidUntil” attributes.

Benefits of the Surge for the Australian Economy

• GDP boost: The $5.1 bn influx translates to a 0.4 % quarterly GDP lift for Q4 2025.
• Employment: Seasonal hiring peaked at 120,000 additional positions across retail, logistics, and hospitality.
• Tax revenue: Treasury estimates an extra $210 m in GST collections during the period.
• consumer sentiment: Higher disposable income during the festive shutdown reinforces long‑term confidence, supporting future investment.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Is the $5.1 bn figure net of inflation?

A1: Yes. ANZ adjusted the forecast for the 3.2 % CPI growth recorded in Q3 2025.

Q2: Which regions in Australia are expected to see the highest spend?

A2: New South Wales and Victoria together account for 58 % of the projected surge, driven by population density and higher median incomes.

Q3: How reliable is the “shut‑down” spending model?

A3: ANZ’s model builds on five years of ancient data, incorporating variables such as payroll timing, consumer confidence, and travel restrictions. The 2024 forecast had a 2.1 % margin of error, indicating strong predictive accuracy.

Q4: What role does digital advertising play in capturing holiday spend?

A4: Programs that combine programmatic video with geo‑targeted search ads have shown a 15 % higher conversion rate during the festive window.

Actionable Checklist for Marketers

• Audit website load speed – Aim for <2 seconds page load to reduce bounce during high traffic.
• Refresh meta titles – Include “2025 holiday deals”, “last‑minute gifts”, and brand name.
• Launch countdown timers – Create urgency for flash sales (e.g., “24‑hour holiday flash”).
• Set up retargeting funnels – Capture abandoned carts with a 10 % discount code.
• Monitor social sentiment – Use Brandwatch to track festive hashtags and adjust messaging.

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All data referenced above are drawn from ANZ’s official holiday spending report (Nov 2025), Australian Bureau of Statistics releases, industry analytics firms, and publicly disclosed corporate performance statements.