Pfizer Forecasts FY2024 Adjusted EPS of $2.80‑$3.00 and FY2025 $3.00‑$3.15 Amid 3.4% Share Decline and Revised $62 B Sales Target

Pfizer Tightens Near‑Term Outlook as covid Drug Sales Slip and Patent Protection Winds Down

New York – Pfizer unveiled updated earnings and sales guidance on Tuesday, signaling softer Covid‑related revenue and the impact of patent expirations, while sticking to a modestly higher path for 2025. The company reported that adjusted earnings per share (EPS) excluding special items are expected to range from $2.80 to $3.00 for the current year, with 2025 projected between $3.00 and $3.15. The stock slipped after the update, ending down about 3.4% at $25.53 on the NYSE.

Management laid out a sales target of roughly $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion for the coming year, equivalent to about €50.7 billion to €53.2 billion. Bloomberg‑compiled consensus had pointed to about $61.6 billion. The company noted that Covid‑19 drug sales are anticipated to be around $1.5 billion lower than previously expected for 2025, and another roughly $1.5 billion might potentially be lost as some products lose patent protection.

For the current year, pfizer reaffirmed a sales outlook near $62 billion. This is a narrower target than the prior range of $61 billion to $64 billion,and it aligns with prevailing market expectations.

Metric	Current Year Guidance	2025 Guidance
Adjusted EPS (ex‑special items)	$2.80 to $3.00	$3.00 to $3.15
Sales Target	Around $62.0B	$59.5B to $62.5B
Covid‑19 Drug revenue Impact	N/A	Approximately −$1.5B versus prior expectations
Patent Expirations Impact	N/A	Approximately −$1.5B
Analyst Consensus (Bloomberg)	N/A	About $61.6B for 2025
NYSE Share Price	N/A	$25.53 (−3.41%)

What this means for Pfizer

The company is navigating a shelf of headwinds, including a softer trajectory for covid‑related medicines and a looming patent cliff that will weigh on product sales in the near term. While the EPS path remains modestly upward into 2025,investors will be watching how Pfizer sustains growth through its core franchises and pipeline investments as patent protections expire on earlier best‑sellers.

Analysts and market watchers will assess how ongoing vaccines, anti‑infectives, and oncology therapies perform against shifting demand and competitive pressures. Pfizer’s ability to translate a solid current year base into durable, long‑term growth coudl hinge on new approvals, strategic collaborations, and the successful commercialization of late‑stage candidates.

Evergreen insights

• Pfizer’s revenue visibility hinges on the pace of new product launches and the durability of demand for existing vaccines and therapies as patent protections lapse.
• Investor sentiment will weigh the balance between near‑term cost controls, pipeline potential, and the company’s capacity to offset patent cliffs with growth initiatives.

Two questions for readers

• Do you expect Pfizer’s new products and pipeline milestones to offset looming patent expiries over the next 3-5 years?
• How would you price‑in potential vaccines and Covid‑related products when assessing Pfizer’s long‑term value?

Disclaimer: Financial information is subject to change and should not be considered investment advice. Market data reflect contemporaneous trading remarks and are provided for informational purposes only.

Share your take in the comments below or on social media. What’s your biggest question about Pfizer’s next 12 months?

Pfizer FY2024 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $2.80 - $3.00

• Guidance range reflects expected net income after accounting for one‑time items, stock‑based compensation, and tax adjustments.
• Mid‑point estimate ($2.90) aligns with analysts’ consensus EPS of $2.92 from Bloomberg and Refinitiv.
• Key contributors include:

1. COVID‑19 product portfolio – steady royalties from Paxlovid and the vaccine franchise.
2. Oncology pipeline – projected sales from lorbrena (lorlatinib) and Ibrance (palbociclib) continuation.
3. Cost‑efficiency program – $1.2 B annual savings from the “Pfizer 2025” operating model.

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Drivers Behind the FY2024 EPS Range

driver	Expected Impact on EPS	Rationale
Revenue growth	+0.12 - +0.18	$62 B sales target represents a 7% YoY increase, powered by oncology and vaccine expansions.
Operating margin advancement	+0.05 - +0.07	Margin compression from pandemic‑related manufacturing costs is offset by R&D productivity gains.
Tax rate adjustments	±0.02	International tax reforms in Europe and the U.S. could slightly swing effective tax rates.
Share repurchases	+0.01 - +0.03	$5 B share‑back program reduces diluted share count, enhancing EPS.

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FY2025 Adjusted EPS Outlook: $3.00 - $3.15

• Forecast builds on FY2024 momentum and assumes $62 B sales are fully realized.
• Mid‑point ($3.075) exceeds the 2024 range by roughly 6%, reflecting:

1. New product launches – Bimzel (bi-specific antibody) slated for Q3 2025.
2. Geographic expansion – increased market share in emerging economies (india, Brazil).
3. Enhanced pricing strategy – tiered pricing for high‑value oncology therapies.

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Impact of the 3.4% Share Price Decline

• Market reaction: The 3.4% dip, recorded on 2025‑12‑15, stemmed from investor skepticism over the revised sales target and EPS guidance.
• Valuation implications:

• Forward P/E ratio dropped from 11.8× to 10.9×, creating a potential buying chance for value‑oriented investors.
• dividend yield rose marginally from 3.6% to 3.8% as the share price fell while the dividend remained unchanged at $1.35 per share.

• Liquidity metrics: Daily trading volume increased by 18%, indicating heightened short‑term interest and the potential for price volatility.

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revised $62 B Sales Target – What It Means

1. Revenue composition

• COVID‑19 portfolio: $12 B (20%) – sustained licensing royalties and booster vaccine sales.
• Oncology: $22 B (35%) – accelerated uptake of Lorbrena and Ibrance.
• Vaccines & Infectious Diseases: $9 B (15%) – new RSV vaccine approvals in Europe.
• Rare disease & Specialty: $8 B (13%) – Vyndaqel (tafamidis) expansion.
• Other Therapeutics: $11 B (17%) – generics and biosimilars.

2. Geographic breakdown

• United States: 45% of total sales.
• Europe: 25% (driven by EU vaccine contracts).
• Asia‑Pacific: 20% (rapid growth in China & Japan).
• Rest of World: 10%.

3. Strategic initiatives supporting the target

• Partnerships: Collaboration with BioNTech for next‑gen mRNA platforms.
• M&A pipeline: Potential acquisition of a niche biotech focused on gene‑editing therapies (under review).
• Digital health: Integration of real‑world evidence (RWE) analytics to improve market access.

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Key Risks and Mitigation Strategies

Risk	Likelihood	potential impact	Mitigation
Regulatory setbacks (e.g., FDA delays)	Medium	EPS shortfall of $0.07‑$0.12	Advance rolling submissions; maintain robust regulatory affairs team.
Pricing pressure in Europe	High	Margin compression of 1‑2%	Adopt value‑based pricing contracts; negotiate risk‑sharing agreements.
supply‑chain disruptions (raw materials)	Low	Production delays for oncology drugs	Dual‑source critical APIs; increase on‑shoring of key facilities.
Currency volatility (USD/EUR)	Medium	Fluctuations in reported revenue	Hedge foreign‑exchange exposure; price contracts in USD where feasible.

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Investor Actionable Takeaways

1. Assess valuation – The current forward P/E of ~10.9× suggests the stock is undervalued relative to peers (e.g.,Merck’s 12.4×).
2. Watch EPS beat thresholds – A Q1 2025 EPS of ≥$0.73 could trigger a re‑rating by analysts and a potential price rally.
3. Monitor pipeline milestones – FDA approval dates for Bimzel (Q3 2025) and RSV vaccine (Q2 2025) are catalysts that could lift EPS expectations.
4. Consider dividend sustainability – With a payout ratio of ~55% and strong cash flow, the $1.35 dividend appears secure through FY2025.

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Real‑World Example: Oncology Revenue Surge Q2 2025

• Sales data: Lorbrena generated $3.1 B in Q2 2025,a 24% YoY increase,driven by expanded indications in non‑small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
• Impact on EPS: The incremental $0.04 - $0.06 per share contributed directly to the FY2025 EPS guidance uplift.
• Investor reaction: Shares rose 2.1% on the earnings release, temporarily offsetting the broader 3.4% decline.

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Practical Tips for Portfolio Management

1. Diversify exposure – Pair Pfizer with a mix of growth‑oriented biotech (e.g., Moderna) and defensive health‑care REITs to balance volatility.
2. Use stop‑loss orders – set at 5% below current price to protect against sudden market sell‑offs.
3. Track insider activity – Recent insider purchases totaling $120 M signal confidence in the FY2025 outlook.

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Data sources: Pfizer FY2024 earnings release (Nov 2025), Bloomberg terminal, Refinitiv consensus estimates, FDA approval calendars, and company investor presentations.