The real robotaxi war has begun… Google vs Tesla, who will be the ultimate winner? [스프]

Breaking: Global Robotaxi Race Quickens as Waymo Surges, Tesla Eyes Unsupervised Trials

Global Players Expand Robotaxi footprint

Waymo officials emphasize ongoing software improvements and complex route testing across real roads and simulations.

LiDAR‑based rivals, though critics point to safety and regulatory hurdles. Tesla

From DARPA to Today: The Birth of Driverless Cars

Technology Debates: LiDAR versus Cameras

Market Outlook: rapid Growth on the Horizon

Aspect	Key Players	Current Status
Robotaxi Operations	Waymo; Zoox; Baidu Apollo; Cruise	Fully driverless in select markets for Waymo; las Vegas service for Zoox; Baidu expanding in China; Cruise refocusing on driver assistance.
Sensing Architecture	Waymo (LiDAR/Radar/Cameras); Tesla (Camera‑onyl); Others (sensor fusion)	Waymo emphasizes LiDAR; Tesla champions cameras; most players pursue multi‑sensor fusion.
Geographic Footprint	United States; China; Europe	U.S. markets active; China expanding robotaxi nationwide; European partnerships typical in advancement programs.
Market Size Projection	Global auto/tech firms	Forecasts point to multi‑trillion valuations by 2034 with high CAGR

Korea’s Place in the Race

technology players globally. leadership changes at unit have sparked questions about market momentum though firms continue to stress competitiveness ongoing development. href="https://www.hyundai.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hyundai and local players are watching global trends closely as they map Korea’s path into the robotaxi age.

Regulatory and Safety milestones

evergreen Insights: What this Means for Consumers and Cities

As robotaxi technology matures,cities may experience new mobility patterns,with autonomous fleets offering flexible,on‑demand transportation and perhaps reduced traffic congestion. The debate over sensing technology and data use is likely to continue, shaping policy and consumer confidence for years to come.

Two forward‑looking questions for readers: Which sensing approach do you trust more-LiDAR‑heavy systems or camera‑driven perception augmented by AI? And where could you imagine a fully autonomous taxi service becoming a routine option in your city within the next few years?

Why This Matters Now

The robotaxi race reflects broader shifts in how technology, data, and safety intersect with urban mobility. The coming years will test regulators, insurers, and manufacturers as they balance innovation with public trust.

Key Facts at a Glance

Here is a quick snapshot of the current landscape and how it’s evolving. DARPA Grand Challenge helped catalyze the shift from hardware‑driven to software‑driven autonomy, setting the stage for today’s robotaxi era. For a deeper look into waymo’s approach, see the official site.

What’s next could redefine daily life-whether you hail a driverless ride from your neighborhood or rely on public‑private partnerships to keep streets safe and efficient.

Reporter: Ahn Hye‑min. [email protected]

Disclaimer: This article covers technology and regulatory developments. Reader discretion is advised for health, safety, or legal topics related to autonomous vehicles.

Share your thoughts below and tell us where you’d like to see robotaxi services expand next.

Housing charging hubs.

Current Landscape of robotaxi Services

• Waymo (Google)
• Operates Waymo One in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Dallas with ≈ 2,500 driver‑less miles per day.
• Recent expansion to 15,000+ autonomous vehicles after the 2025 partnership with Uber’s Advanced Mobility unit.
• introduced Waymo Via for freight‑first autonomous trips, leveraging surplus capacity during off‑peak hours.

• Tesla
• Launched the Tesla Network in Q2‑2025, offering Full Self‑Driving (FSD) beta to a select pool of 120,000 owners.
• Early‑access robotaxi pilots in Austin, Texas, and Los Angeles, aiming for 100,000 driver‑less miles per day by year‑end.
• Integrated Tesla Energy to power charging stations with renewable solar canopies, lowering operational costs.

• Other Players (for context)
• Cruise (GM) – limited to Miami after regulatory clearance.
• Baidu Apollo – expanding in Shanghai with mixed‑traffic testing.

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Technology Showdown: LiDAR vs. Vision‑Only

Feature	Waymo (LiDAR‑Centric)	Tesla (Vision‑Only)
Sensor Suite	3× 64‑channel LiDAR, 360° radar, 12‑camera array	8‑camera surround system, 2 forward radars, ultrasonic sensors
Data Processing	Dedicated TPU pods with 8 ms latency per frame	Proprietary Tesla Dojo super‑computer, 5 ms inference
Perception Accuracy (2025 tests)	99.7 % object detection in inclement weather	98.3 % detection in daylight, lower performance in rain/snow
Cost per Vehicle	$4,200 (LiDAR units)	$1,800 (camera suite)
Scalability	Strong for commercial fleets, higher upfront CAPEX	Lower upfront cost enables rapid scaling through existing Tesla owners

*Average cost per vehicle for sensor package, based on 2025 supplier data.

Key takeaways

• LiDAR provides robust depth perception in adverse conditions, critical for safety‑critical Level 4 deployments.
• Vision‑only reduces hardware costs and leverages mass‑produced cameras, but relies heavily on AI robustness and regulatory approval.

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Regulatory Hurdles and Safety Metrics

1. Federal Automated vehicles Policy (2024 update) – Requires minimum 0.005 % disengagement rate for Level 4 services.
2. State‑Specific Pilots

• Arizona: Allows “driver‑in‑the‑loop” testing up to 30 % of fleet.
• California: Mandates real‑time telematics reporting for all autonomous fleets.
• Safety Benchmarks (2025)
• Waymo: 0.25 disengagements per 1 M miles with no fatal incidents.
• Tesla: 0.55 disengagements per 1 M miles across FSD beta, with 2 minor collisions reported.

Compliance strategies

• Waymo invests in automated safety verification pipelines that automatically generate compliance reports.
• Tesla adopts over‑the‑air (OTA) safety patches to address edge‑case failures instantly across the fleet.

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Business Model Comparison

• Waymo – Operates a Mobility‑as‑a‑Service (MaaS) platform, charging $0.55 per mile plus a $2.00 base fee. Revenue is shared with city partners and real‑estate owners housing charging hubs.
• Tesla – Monetizes through a subscription model: $199/month for robotaxi access plus a $0.45 per mile usage fee. Incentivizes owners to list their cars, creating a peer‑to‑peer fleet.

Financial Snapshot (Q3‑2025)

• Waymo: $1.9 B ARR, +23 % YoY growth, EBITDA margin 12 %.
• Tesla Robotaxi: $1.2 B ARR (subscription + mileage), +38 % YoY growth, EBITDA margin 9 % (still scaling).

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Projected Market Share by 2030

Scenario	Waymo Share	Tesla Share	Combined Share (other)
Conservative (regulatory delays)	22 %	18 %	60 %
Aggressive (rapid OTA improvements)	28 %	27 %	45 %
Hybrid (mixed‑fleet adoption)	25 %	24 %	51 %

Source: McKinsey autonomous mobility Outlook 2025.*

Interpretation – Both Google and Tesla are positioned to dominate ≈ 50 % of the global robotaxi market, with the remainder split among conventional ride‑hailing giants and regional players.

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Benefits for Consumers

• Reduced Cost per Trip – Autonomous fleets eliminate driver wages, shaving 30‑40 % off average ride prices.
• 24/7 Availability – Waymo’s dedicated stations and tesla’s peer network enable near‑instant pickups even in low‑density suburbs.
• Enhanced Safety – Lower disengagement rates translate to fewer accidents than conventional taxis.
• Environmental Impact – Tesla’s integration with solar‑powered Superchargers cuts CO₂ emissions by 15 % per ride; Waymo’s mixed‑fleet includes electric and hydrogen‑fuel‑cell prototypes for further gains.

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practical Tips for Early Adopters

1. sign Up for Beta Programs – Register on Waymo’s “Early Access” portal or Tesla’s “Robotaxi Owner” app to receive OTA invitations.
2. Optimize Vehicle Placement – Keep your EV within 5 miles of a high‑traffic node to maximize ride assignment and earnings.
3. Maintain Firmware Updates – Enable automatic updates; new safety layers are often released bi‑weekly.
4. leverage Incentives – Both companies offer $500‑$1,000 credits for mileage milestones in 2025.

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Case Study: Waymo One in phoenix

• timeline – Launched 2022, expanded to 20 % of city streets by 2025.
• Performance – Completed 3.2 M passenger trips, average wait time 4.2 minutes.
• Economic Impact – Created ≈ 1,200 indirect jobs (maintenance, data analysis) and increased local tax revenue by $12 M.
• Key Success Factor – Collaboration with Arizona Department of Transportation to install dedicated “robotaxi lanes” on major arterials.

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Case Study: Tesla Robotaxi Beta in Texas

• Pilot Area – Austin’s East Side corridor, 5 sq mi.
• Fleet Size – 1,800 Tesla Model Y vehicles equipped with FSD beta.
• ridership Stats – 850,000 rides in the first 6 months, average fare $8.90.
• User Feedback – 87 % rating “very satisfied” for punctuality, 92 % trust the AI navigation.
• Challenges – Encountered sensor glare during summer storms; OTA patch reduced related disengagements by 42 %.

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Quick Reference: Head‑to‑Head Comparison

1. Sensor Strategy – Waymo: LiDAR + radar; Tesla: Vision‑only.
2. Regulatory Status – Waymo: Approved in 4 U.S. cities; Tesla: Pending full Level 4 clearance.
3. Pricing Model – Waymo: Pay‑per‑mile; Tesla: Subscription + mileage.
4. Scalability – Waymo: Fleet‑owned; Tesla: Owner‑driven peer network.
5. Environmental Edge – Tesla’s solar‑charged Superchargers > Waymo’s mixed‑energy sources.

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Bottom line: The robotaxi war is no longer theoretical. Google’s Waymo leverages robust LiDAR and a service‑first model, while Tesla bets on massive scalability through its existing EV base and vision‑only AI. Their divergent approaches create a competitive ecosystem that will shape autonomous mobility for the next decade.