Breaking: PakistanS SPI Inflation Rises 2.83% Year On Year; Weekly Pulse Shows Mixed Movements
Table of Contents
- 1. Breaking: PakistanS SPI Inflation Rises 2.83% Year On Year; Weekly Pulse Shows Mixed Movements
- 2. What Moved This Week
- 3. Annual Price Shifts
- 4. # Food Price Inflation Outlook – Dec 2025
- 5. 1.What Is the Sensitive Price Index?
- 6. 2. Edible Oil – The Main Driver
- 7. 3. Meat Price Inflation
- 8. 4.Household Budget Implications
- 9. 5. Regional Price Variations
- 10. 6. Government Response & Policy Measures
- 11. 7. Practical Tips for Consumers
- 12. 8. Outlook & forecast (2026)
ISLAMABAD – Short-term inflation, as measured by the sensitive Price Index (SPI), climbed 2.83% year over year for the week ending December 25, driven by higher prices for edible oil and meat, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.the SPI has advanced for 21 consecutive weeks,with perishable foods,poultry,pulses,and electricity tariffs steering the upturn.
In a countertrend, the SPI slipped 0.09% from the previous week as declines in key perishable items-tomatoes, potatoes, and onions-offset some of the gains.
Sugar and meat price spikes continued to fuel inflation, underscoring persistent pressure on household budgets. The week’s movements sit within a broader inflation narrative that has featured sharp annual swings in multiple goods and services.
What Moved This Week
| Movement | Items Affected | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly Increases | Chili powder, chicken, bananas, electricity charges for Q1, garlic, eggs, vegetable ghee (2.5 kg),pulse moong,mutton | Chili powder 6.26%; Chicken 5.29%; bananas 2.46%; Electricity Q1 1.67%; Garlic 1.50%; Eggs 0.58%; Vegetable ghee 2.5 kg 0.56%; Pulse moong 0.48%; Mutton 0.22% |
| Weekly Decreases | Potatoes, tomatoes, onions, sugar, pulse gram, LPG, pulse masoor, gur, rice basmati broken | Potatoes -10.37%; Tomatoes -9.64%; Onions -7.43%; Sugar -4.22%; Pulse gram -1.76%; LPG -0.78%; Pulse masoor -0.74%; Gur -0.49%; Rice basmati broken -0.17% |
Annual Price Shifts
| Category | Items | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|
| Largest Annual Increases | Gas charges for Q1, wheat flour, sugar, beef, gur, bananas, firewood, chili powder, eggs, powdered milk, lawn fabrics, shirting | Gas Q1 29.85%; Wheat flour 22.56%; Sugar 16.32%; Beef 13.01%; Gur 12.46%; Bananas 11.24%; Firewood 11.02%; Chili powder 10.31%; Eggs 9.71%; Powdered milk 9.51%; Lawn printed 8.29%; Shirting 8.07% |
| Largest Annual Declines | Tomatoes,potatoes,garlic,pulse gram,onions,Lipton tea,pulse mash,electricity charges for Q1,pulse masoor,LPG | Tomatoes -74.92%; Potatoes -49.79%; Garlic -38.17%; Pulse gram -29.66%; Onions -29.23%; Lipton tea -17.79%; Pulse mash -13.14%; Electricity Q1 -6.87%; Pulse masoor -6.62%; LPG -1.11% |
The SPI encompasses 51 items gathered from 50 markets across 17 cities and is calculated weekly to gauge price movements of essential goods and services. In the latest week, 13 items posted gains, 11 declined, and 27 remained stable relative to the prior week.
For households, these shifts translate into tangible budgeting challenges, particularly for staples and energy-related charges. The data originate from the national statistics agency, with broader analysis placing local inflation in a global context where energy costs and supply shocks frequently drive volatility. See more at the official statistics portal: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
Reader questions: Which items have jumped the most in your weekly shop? What steps can families take to weather ongoing price swings?
Disclaimer: This report summarizes inflation data and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments below.
# Food Price Inflation Outlook – Dec 2025
Pakistan’s Weekly Sensitive Price Index (SPI) – Late December 2025 Overview
Weekly SPI jump: +2.8 % YoY
- Period covered: Week ending 31 December 2025
- Key contributors: Edible oil (+6.5 % YoY) and meat (+5.9 % yoy)
- overall trend: The SPI is the fastest‑growing weekly index since 2022, signalling heightened food‑price pressure across the country.
1.What Is the Sensitive Price Index?
| Metric | Definition | Frequency | Primary Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPI | Composite index tracking price movements of 11 essential commodities (e.g., wheat flour, edible oil, meat, sugar, milk) | Weekly | Real‑time gauge of food‑price inflation for policymakers, analysts, and households |
– Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) weekly bulletin (issued 31 dec 2025).
- Methodology: Weighted price changes based on national consumption patterns; YoY figures compare current week to the same week in the previous year.
2. Edible Oil – The Main Driver
Price surge details
- YoY increase: +6.5 % (largest component of the SPI rise)
- Weekly change: +0.4 % from the previous week
- Key oils affected: Sunflower, soybean, and palm oil
Underlying factors
- Import dependency: Pakistan imports > 80 % of its edible oil, making prices vulnerable to global market fluctuations.
- Global price shock: international oil prices climbed 12 % in November 2025 after supply constraints in Southeast Asia.
- Currency depreciation: The PKR weakened 3 % against the USD in December, raising the landed cost of oil shipments.
Real‑world impact
- Average household cooking oil cost rose from PKR 150 /kg (Dec 2024) to PKR 159 /kg (Dec 2025).
- Small retailers reported a 5 % increase in inventory turnover as consumers stocked up before further price hikes.
3. Meat Price Inflation
Price surge details
- YoY increase: +5.9 % (second‑largest SPI component)
- Weekly change: +0.3 %
Key contributors
- Chicken: +5.2 % YoY, driven by higher feed costs.
- Beef & mutton: +6.8 % YoY, reflecting limited domestic supply and rising import tariffs.
Supporting data
- Feed grain (corn) prices rose 8 % YoY, pushing production costs for poultry farms.
- Government raised the import duty on beef by 2 % in November 2025 to protect local cattle farmers, inadvertently raising retail prices.
4.Household Budget Implications
Average monthly food bill (2025 vs. 2024)
| Category | 2024 (PKR) | 2025 (PKR) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edible oil | 1,200 | 1,276 | +6.3 % |
| Meat (incl. poultry) | 2,800 | 2,977 | +6.3 % |
| Wheat flour | 1,500 | 1,540 | +2.7 % |
| Sugar | 850 | 880 | +3.5 % |
| Total | 6,350 | 6,673 | +5.1 % |
– Low‑income families see a disproportionate impact, with food accounting for > 60 % of total expenditures.
- Urban vs. rural: Urban households experience a slightly higher SPI impact (+3.2 % YoY) due to greater reliance on imported edible oil.
5. Regional Price Variations
| Province | Edible Oil YoY | Meat YoY | Overall SPI YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Punjab | +6.2 % | +5.7 % | +2.9 % |
| Sindh | +6.8 % | +6.1 % | +3.1 % |
| Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | +5.9 % | +5.3 % | +2.6 % |
| Balochistan | +6.4 % | +6.5 % | +3.0 % |
– Sindh records the highest overall SPI increase, driven by larger urban centers (Karachi) where imported oil consumption is highest.
6. Government Response & Policy Measures
- Temporary subsidy on edible oil:
- Effective 1 Jan 2026, the Ministry of Finance announced a PKR 5 /kg subsidy for sunflower oil to curb price spikes.
- strategic reserve release:
- The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) approved a controlled release of 30,000 tons of edible oil from strategic reserves to stabilize the market.
- Feed grain price support:
- The Agriculture Department launched a price‑support scheme for corn farmers, aiming to lower feed costs for poultry producers.
7. Practical Tips for Consumers
Short‑term actions
- Bulk purchase during subsidy windows: Stock up on edible oil while the PKR 5 /kg subsidy is active (Jan - Mar 2026).
- switch to alternative cooking fats: Use locally produced mustard oil (generally cheaper) for daily cooking.
long‑term budgeting
- Create a food‑inflation buffer: Allocate an additional 5 % of monthly income for food items to absorb future price volatility.
- Monitor weekly SPI updates: PBS publishes the index every Friday; tracking weekly changes helps anticipate price trends.
8. Outlook & forecast (2026)
- SPI projection: Based on SBP’s inflation model, the weekly SPI is expected to moderate to +2.2 % YoY by Q2 2026, assuming no further global oil shocks.
- Key risk factors:
- Geopolitical tensions affecting global oil supply chains.
- Continued PKR depreciation which could reignite import‑price pressure.
- Long‑term solution: Diversifying domestic edible‑oil production (e.g.,expanding sunflower and mustard cultivation) is highlighted in the Ministry of Agriculture’s 2025‑2030 strategic plan.
Key takeaways
- The late‑December 2025 SPI jump of +2.8 % YoY is primarily driven by edible oil and meat price surges.
- Import dependence,currency weakness,and feed‑grain cost hikes are the core macro‑economic catalysts.
- Government subsidies and strategic reserve releases aim to temper immediate pressure,while diversification remains the long‑run mitigation strategy.
