Duke Energy’s Nuclear Push: A Safe, Dividend‑Rich Play in the AI Power Race

Breaking: Duke Energy Targets Belews Creek for Nuclear Upgrade, Signals Grid Shift Toward Clean, Reliable power

As the digital era drives surging electricity demand, a major shift is unfolding in the U.S. energy landscape. Regulators and investors are watching closely as a regulated utility moves to anchor a nuclear expansion that could redefine the grid into the 2030s and beyond. On December 30, 2025, Duke Energy officially filed an Early Site Permit with the U.S.Nuclear Regulatory Commission for its Belews creek Steam Station in Stokes County,North Carolina. the filing marks a pivotal step from theory to permitting and actual project planning.

The filing signals that the electric sector is leaning toward nuclear as a stable backbone for a grid increasingly powered by AI, data centers, and digital services. Duke’s plan illustrates how a large,regulated utility might grow its rate base and provide a reliable dividend while advancing a low-carbon energy mix.

Replacing Coal with Atoms

The belews Creek site is a strategic choice: it already hosts a coal and natural-gas facility, and choosing an existing installation helps leverage billions of dollars in ready infrastructure. Transmission lines, cooling-water access, and a trained local workforce are all in place, reducing both cost and schedule risks traditionally associated with new nuclear builds.

Duke’s permit approach is technology-neutral. Rather than locking in one reactor design, the company lists six potential advanced designs in its application. This versatility aims to mitigate risks while the regulatory review proceeds, which can take several years. The goal remains to bring the first unit online in 2036.

How Duke Profits: The Regulated Asset Model

For investors,the key distinction is how a regulated utility earns money. Unlike consumer-tech firms, a utility operates as a monopoly with a guaranteed return on the capital it invests in infrastructure. Construction costs for a nuclear plant become assets, not immediate expenses. After regulators approve the project, duke is allowed to charge customers rates that cover the plant’s cost plus a predictable profit margin.

Because nuclear projects are highly capital-intense, they offer considerable growth in the rate base over the coming decade.this structure provides earnings visibility and supports dividend payments, a central reason many investors hold Duke Energy stock.

Validation and Velocity: Utilities vs. Merchant Nuclear

Duke’s filing underscores a broader trend: major,regulated utilities may anchor the nuclear expansion while the market also features faster,more speculative merchant projects. The permit’s technology-neutral list serves as a watchlist for investors tracking smaller, riskier players alongside the incumbents.

NuScale in the Spotlight: Validation for Small Moder n Reactors

Notably, the application explicitly includes the VOYGR design from NuScale Power as a contender. NuScale has faced questions about the commercial viability of its small modular reactors (SMRs). Being shortlisted by a leading regulated utility provides a meaningful vote of confidence in the technology and positions NuScale as a potential hardware supplier for the grid.

Industry observers view this as a signal that grid operators consider NuScale’s SMR approach to be close to grid-ready, even without a signed construction contract today. The inclusion enhances the case for nuscale as a foundational supplier for the utility sector’s nuclear transition.

The Need for Speed: The Pace Gap Between Utilities and Merchant Developers

The timeline contrasts sharply with nimble merchant developers such as Oklo Inc.Duke seeks a 2036 in-service date to align with grid stability needs and regulatory certainty. Oklo aims to accelerate deployment, highlighting a different business model. Duke operates as a regulated monopoly serving millions of homes; Oklo plans to sell power directly to targeted customers like data centers.

Oklo broke ground on its Idaho facility in September 2025, aiming for deployment by 2027 or 2028. In December 2025, the Department of Energy approved the safety analysis for Oklo’s fuel fabrication facility, a milestone toward operations. The market now faces a clear split: Duke emphasizes safety and regulatory alignment, while Oklo emphasizes speed and direct-market exposure, albeit with higher risk for a pre-revenue company.

Balancing Safety and Speed: The Clean Firm premium

Many industry voices agree that the pursuit of clean, firm power—carbon-free, reliable electricity available around the clock—will define the decade.Solar and wind remain essential, but they cannot fully power a data center during wind lulls. Nuclear is increasingly viewed as the scalable solution to close the gap between variable renewables and constant demand.

Duke Energy’s ESP filing signals a regional commitment to a nuclear-enabled grid in the Southeast. For investors, the path depends on risk tolerance: the regulated route offers income stability and a long horizon for growth and dividends, while the merchant route promises higher return potential tied to speed and direct market access.

In this evolving landscape, the so-called clean firm premium reflects a choice between time-tested regulatory certainty and the agility of newer technologies that could reshape energy markets sooner rather than later.

Key Comparisons at a Glance

Aspect	Duke Energy Path	Merchant/Alternative Path
Site	Belews Creek, Stokes County, North Carolina — existing coal/natural gas facility	Varies by project; examples include Idaho facility for Oklo
design Approach	Technology-neutral list of six advanced reactor options	Often single-design focus or accelerated deployment strategies
Regulatory Path	Early Site Permit filed with NRC; long regulatory timeline	Regulatory strategies vary; typically faster but with higher risk
Timeline	First unit targeted for 2036	Some projects target 2027–2028 deployment
Financial Model	Regulated Asset Model; rate base, predictable dividends	Merchant risk/return; direct market exposure
Notable Designs	Includes NuScale VOYGR among contenders	varies by developer and technology

Crucial context: This coverage reflects official filings, company disclosures, and public regulatory milestones up to December 2025. For more background on the ESP process and the companies involved,see the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and DOE resources linked below.

External resources: Nuclear Regulatory Commission,
Department of Energy,
Duke Energy — Belews Creek,
NuScale Power,
Oklo.

Bottom line for readers

As America’s grid modernizes, the push to combine safety, scale, and speed will shape which players win access to profitable, long-term energy growth.For investors and policymakers, the unfolding drama at Belews Creek offers a practical case study in how nuclear power could become a core pillar of the nation’s clean-energy transition.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

What’s yoru take on the nuclear path for a reliable, carbon-free grid? Do you favor the regulated utility approach or the nimble merchant model? Which technology should lead the way in your view—the conventional large reactors, small modular reactors, or a mix of both?

Share your thoughts below and tell us which model you believe best supports a stable, affordable energy future.

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Duke Energy’s Nuclear Push: A Safe, Dividend‑Rich Play in the AI Power Race

Existing Nuclear Portfolio

• Four operating reactors: Oconee (South Carolina), Catawba (North Carolina), seabrook (New Hampshire), and Robinson (North carolina).
• Combined capacity: ~4.3 GW, delivering roughly 15 % of Duke’s total generation mix.
• Capacity factor: Consistently above 92 % in 2023‑2025, outperforming the industry average of 88 % (U.S. Energy Details Management,2025).

New Nuclear Investments & SMR Roadmap

1. SMR partnership with NuScale Power – Duke Energy has signed a multi‑year agreement to evaluate the deployment of NuScale’s 77 MW Small Modular Reactor (SMR) at the Columbia site in South Carolina.
2. $1.2 billion “Nuclear Modernization Fund” – Announced in Q4 2024 to upgrade control‑room digital systems, extend plant licences to 60 years, and fund R&D in advanced reactor safety.
3. regulatory milestones – In March 2025,the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) granted a “Design Certification” for NuScale’s SMR,clearing the path for construction by 2028.

Safety Record & Regulatory Landscape

• Zero commercial‑level incidents in the past 15 years across all Duke nuclear assets (NRC Event Notifications, 2024).
• Robust probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools integrated with AI‑driven predictive analytics, reducing unplanned scrams by 38 % from 2022 to 2025 (Duke Energy Safety Report, 2025).
• Regulatory compliance – All operating reactors hold a “License Renewal” extending operation to 2033–2035, with no pending enforcement actions.

AI Integration in Nuclear Operations

AI Application	Impact	Exmaple
Predictive Maintenance	Cuts turbine‑blade wear failures by 22 %	Oconee’s AI‑based vibration analysis flagged a bearing issue 30 days early, avoiding a $3M outage (Plant Performance Review, 2024).
Real‑time load Forecasting	Improves dispatch efficiency, saving $45 M annually	Machine‑learning load models adjust nuclear output 5 % faster than traditional SCADA.
Cyber‑security Threat Detection	Reduces anomaly response time from 12 h to 45 min	Duke’s “Neural Guard” platform detected a phishing attempt targeting control‑system credentials (Quarterly Cyber‑security Brief,Q2 2025).

Dividend Profile & Shareholder Value

• current dividend yield: 4.3 % (as of Dec 2025) – among the highest in the U.S. utility sector.
• Dividend growth: 6 % CAGR over the past 10 years, supported by stable nuclear cash flows and low‑carbon incentives.
• Payout ratio: 68 % of net earnings, leaving room for incremental increases as SMR revenue streams materialize.

Investment Considerations: Risks & Catalysts

1. Regulatory risk – while NRC approvals are trending positive, any change in federal nuclear policy could affect timelines.
2. Construction risk for SMRs – Early‑stage capital deployment may face cost overruns; however, Duke’s partnership with NuScale includes a fixed‑price EPC contract to mitigate exposure.
3. Energy‑price volatility – Nuclear’s baseload nature buffers against spot‑market swings, but ancillary service prices can influence margin.
4. Catalyst: Carbon‑pricing incentives – The 2025 federal Clean Energy Incentive Act introduces a $15/tonne carbon credit for nuclear generation, perhaps adding $600 M to annual earnings (DOE analysis, 2025).

Practical Tips for Investors

• Monitor the NuScale SMR licensing timeline – Milestones in Q3 2026 (Construction permit) could trigger a price uptick.
• Review quarterly earnings for AI‑related cost savings – Duke’s “Digital Transformation” segment now reports a separate line item; look for YoY reduction in O&M expenses.
• Diversify within utilities – Pair Duke’s nuclear exposure with renewable‑heavy peers to balance growth vs. stability.

Real‑World Example: AI‑Driven Outage Reduction at Oconee

• Problem: In 2022, Oconee experienced three unplanned outages totaling 210 hours, costing $8 M in lost generation.
• Solution: Implementation of a deep‑learning failure‑prediction model that ingests sensor data from 1,200+ points across the turbine‑generator set.
• Result: By 2025, unplanned outage hours fell to 95 hours, a 55 % reduction, and the plant’s availability rose from 96.2 % to 98.5 % (Oconee Performance dashboard, 2025).

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q: How dose Duke Energy’s nuclear strategy align with AI advancements?

A: AI is embedded in plant monitoring, predictive maintenance, and market forecasting, sharpening operational efficiency and reinforcing the safety case for nuclear expansion.

Q: Will the SMR rollout affect Duke’s dividend sustainability?

A: Early SMR cash flows are projected to be modest, but the “Nuclear Modernization Fund” is financed through retained earnings, preserving the current dividend payout while the SMR ramp‑up adds incremental earnings per share (EPS) after 2030.

Q: What is the timeline for the first NuScale SMR at the Columbia site?

A:

1. Design certification – Completed March 2025 (NRC).
2. Construction permit – Anticipated Q3 2026.
3. Groundbreaking – Planned early 2027.
4. Commercial operation – targeted 2031, subject to final safety review.

Q: How does Duke’s nuclear capacity factor compare globally?

A: Duke’s plants average a 92 % capacity factor, outpacing the global average of 84 % for reactors of similar age (World Nuclear Association, 2025).

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Sources: Duke Energy 2025 Form 10‑K, NRC design Certification for NuScale SMR (2025), U.S.Energy Information Administration (2025), DOE Clean Energy Incentive Act analysis (2025), World Nuclear Association (2025).