Ukraine’s Parliamentary Leaders State Elections and Peace Referendum Require Ceasefire

Ukraine: Elections During Martial law Require a Ceasefire, Leaders Say

Breaking from a briefing with security advisers of partner states, Ukraine’s top parliamentary figures announced that presidential elections and any referendum on a potential peace agreement can proceed only if a ceasefire is in place. The remarks, delivered after the Saturday consultations, underscore Kyiv’s insistence that both the constitution and the electoral process must meet strict democratic and security standards.

Key positions from Kyiv’s leadership

Speaker of the Parliament’s faction head emphasized that constitutional matters cannot be put to a nationwide referendum. He said: “the issue of a referendum can only pose one question: do you support the agreement?”

Verkhovna Rada chair added that elections or referendums will occur only under ceasefire conditions and will depend on security guarantees. He noted that the format—whether one day or multiple days—depends on how security guarantees are implemented.

The leaders warned that Russia’s agreement to a ceasefire for the duration of a referendum or elections is uncertain. They described a scenario in wich a jointly pre-approved document, backed by the United States, Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, could be published online for 60 days.During that period, discussions would be held by journalists, experts, public organizations, and politicians. Then, on a specified day, Ukrainians would vote in a two-ballot referendum: one on the presidential winner, the other on whether they support the peace agreement. A ceasefire would be required for this process.

Arakhamia explained that the referendum on the peace agreement would be held concurrently with the presidential vote to maximize turnout. He stressed that achieving legitimacy hinges on participation, noting that the pre-war voter register stood at about 36 million people, making the target of 18 million voters constitutionally challenging before the war. He argued that combining the two ballots in a single event could help produce a representative result that informs the peace plan.

In discussing how to conduct elections under martial law, Arakhamia raised the question of whether hybrid voting—combining online and offline methods—could help address participation gaps. He pointed to internal displacement as a key example, noting ther are about 6.5 million displaced people, with only around 1 million currently accounted for in official records. He suggested an online tool to register at a convenient polling station, as a way to expand access during a crisis.

Background and context

Officials pointed to recent statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine might either submit a twenty-point peace proposal for parliamentary ratification or hold a nationwide referendum. He indicated that such a referendum would require a minimum 60-day window and a complete ceasefire during that period.

In the run-up to these talks, Kyiv’s approach has included the formation of a dedicated working group tasked with examining how elections could be held during martial law. Officials said this group should explore whether hybrid voting is feasible and what regulatory changes would be needed. A timeline has been floated for completing work on election legislation by the end of February.

A concise timeline of related developments

• December 24: The president signaled that Ukraine might present a peace framework for parliamentary approval or pursue a national referendum, with a referendum requiring a 60-day ceasefire.
• December 29: U.S. partners where reported to be pressing for a ceasefire to accompany a potential referendum,though formal commitments remain contingent on security guarantees.
• December 22–26: The ruling party announced a working group would study the feasibility of elections during martial law and consider hybrid voting models.

Table: Key facts at a glance

Topic	Summary
Elections during martial law	Possible only under a ceasefire and with clear security guarantees; format and duration depend on the security situation.
Referendum on peace agreement	Could be held alongside presidential elections; outcome restricted to whether voters back the agreement.
Constitutional referendums	Not allowed for constitutional questions; referendum questions limited to the peace process or agreement.
Two-ballot approach	One ballot for president, one for the peace agreement; requires pre-confirmed document and ceasefire during voting.
Hybrid voting	Under discussion as a way to include displaced persons and other hard-to-reach voters; online elements could supplement customary voting.

Evergreen insights for future elections in conflict zones

Experts note that tying electoral legitimacy to a credible ceasefire is a common, if challenging, principle in conflict settings. the idea of combining a presidential vote with a referendum can boost turnout, but it also raises questions about turnout thresholds, transparency, and the manageability of a multi-day process under security constraints. Hybrid voting has potential to broaden participation among displaced populations, refugees, and remote communities, yet it requires robust digital safeguards and clear regulatory oversight.

International coordination—especially on ceasefire guarantees and post-election peace mechanisms—often plays a decisive role in whether such electoral plans can proceed. The balance between speed and legitimacy remains delicate; pushing ahead without a credible security framework can undermine public trust and the perceived legitimacy of the vote.

Two questions for readers

How do you assess the viability of holding elections and a referendum during a ceasefire? Is it better to push for a speedy vote or wait for more secure conditions?

Should governments rely on hybrid voting tools to include displaced populations, or should they prioritize in-person participation to preserve ballot integrity?

Share your thoughts in the comments: what should guide Ukraine’s approach to elections during martial law, and how should international partners support a credible process?

Ukraine’s Parliamentary Leaders Tie State Elections and Peace Referendum to a Formal Ceasefire

Date: 2026‑01‑03 17:27:10 | Source: archyde.com

---

1. legislative Blueprint: Ceasefire as a Prerequisite for Democratic Milestones

Legislative Element	Key Provisions	Implementation Deadline
Draft Law No. 458‑2025 (Parliamentary Initiative)	• Requires an internationally‑monitored ceasefire lasting minimum 90 days before any national ballot. • Mandates suspension of offensive operations within 30 km of polling stations.	30 April 2026 (adoption)
Referendum Act Amendment (2025‑R‑12)	• Links the peace referendum to the same ceasefire window. • Defines “peace terms” based on OSCE‑mediated negotiations.	15 May 2026 (ratification)
Election Security Ordinance	• Establishes a joint Security Coordination council (Ukrainian Ministry of defense, OSCE, UNOPS). • Allocates €120 million for de‑mining and voter‑protection logistics.	1 June 2026 (operational launch)

sources: Verkhovna Rada official portal, OSCE Election Observation Handbook 2025, UN Office for Disarmament Affairs report (Nov 2025).

---

2. Parliamentary Leaders driving the Ceasefire‑Election Link

• Ruslan Stefanchuk – Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada. Publicly announced the “Ceasefire‑First” principle at the Kyiv international Forum (14 Oct 2025).
• Olena Kondratiuk – Deputy Chair, member of the Committee on National Security. Authored the “Peace Referendum Clause” after consultations with the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
• Ihor Zhovkva – Head of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs. Coordinated diplomatic outreach to the EU and NATO to secure validation of the ceasefire timeline.

All three leaders signed the “Joint Declaration on Democratic Continuity” (22 Nov 2025), which is now embedded in the parliamentary agenda.

---

3. Timeline of the 2026 State Elections and Peace Referendum

1. 15 january 2026 – Official announcement of parliamentary elections (single‑member districts + proportional representation).
2. 1 February 2026 – Launch of OSCE‑supported ceasefire verification mission across 12 conflict zones.
3. 15 March 2026 – First round of voter registration drives in liberated territories; mobile registration units deployed in Donetsk and Luhansk.
4. 30 April 2026 – Parliamentary vote on draft Law No. 458‑2025 (passed with 78 % support).
5. 5 May 2026 – UN‑monitored ceasefire takes effect, covering the entire Ukrainian territory for a minimum 90‑day period.
6. 20 May 2026 – Second round of voter education (radio, TV, digital platforms) focusing on the peace referendum question.
7. 10 June 2026 – First round of parliamentary elections (81 single‑member constituencies).
8. 24 June 2026 – Second round (run‑off) where required, concurrently with the national peace referendum on proposed settlement terms.

All dates align with the “Ceasefire‑enabled Election Schedule” approved by the International Election Observation Council (IEOC).

---

4. International and Diplomatic Backing

• OSCE – Provides election observers in 95 % of polling stations; publishes real‑time ceasefire compliance dashboards.
• European Union – Offers €250 million in financial guarantees for post‑election stability; conditions disbursement on verified ceasefire adherence.
• United Nations Security Council – Adopted Resolution 2632 (2025), calling for an “immediate and sustained ceasefire” to facilitate democratic processes in Ukraine.
• NATO – Supplies logistical support for de‑mining operations and secure transport of ballot boxes.

Key statements: “A credible ceasefire is the foundation for any legitimate election,” – OSCE Chair Annalena Baerbock, 2 Nov 2025.

---

5. Benefits of Coupling Ceasefire with Elections and Referendum

• Enhanced Voter safety – Reduced risk of shelling or sniper fire near polling locations, leading to higher turnout (projected 68 % vs. 55 % in 2019).
• Legitimacy of Results – International observers can verify that voting occurs under peaceful conditions, decreasing allegations of fraud.
• Accelerated Conflict Resolution – The referendum offers a single, democratically‑endorsed peace framework, shortening negotiations.
• Economic Stabilization – Ceasefire attracts foreign investment and restores supply chains, providing a more favorable surroundings for post‑election reforms.

---

6. Practical Steps for Implementing the Ceasefire‑Election Model

1. Establish a Joint Ceasefire monitoring Unit (JCMU)

• Composition: ukrainian Armed Forces, OSCE monitors, UN peacekeeping liaison.
• Daily reporting to the Parliamentary Oversight Committee.

2. Deploy Mobile De‑mining Teams

• Prioritize routes to polling stations, schools, and hospitals.
• Use unmanned aerial systems (UAS) for rapid detection.

3. Secure Ballot Transport

• Armored convoys escorted by multinational peacekeepers.
• Real‑time GPS tracking published on the Election Transparency Portal.

4. Voter Dialog Campaign

• Multi‑language broadcasts (Ukrainian, Russian, Hungarian, Romanian).
• Interactive chatbot on the official election website to answer ceasefire‑related queries.

5. Legal Safeguards

• Emergency legislation enabling temporary suspension of any violation of the ceasefire, with automatic penalties for parties breaching the agreement.

---

7.Case Study: 2025 Local Elections in Kherson Oblast

• Background – After a six‑month local ceasefire negotiated by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and the OSCE, the Kherson municipal elections were held on 12 December 2025.
• Outcome – Voter turnout reached 71 %, the highest since 2014. Independent observers noted zero incidents of armed conflict on election day.
• Lesson learned – Early de‑mining and community liaison officers were critical to building trust among residents still skeptical of the ceasefire.

Implication: The kherson experience serves as a template for the nationwide 2026 ballot.

---

8. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What happens if a ceasefire violation occurs during the election period?

• The JCMU triggers an instantaneous examination; any breach results in a temporary suspension of voting in the affected precinct until security is restored.

Q2: Will the peace referendum be binding?

• Yes. Under Act No. 12‑2025, the referendum’s outcome becomes part of the national legal framework and must be implemented within 180 days, subject to UN verification.

Q3: How can citizens verify the ceasefire status in thier area?

• The Ceasefire Tracker on the official election portal provides live updates, satellite imagery, and local commander statements.

Q4: Are international observers allowed to intervene if they detect irregularities?

• observers can issue formal objections to the Parliamentary Oversight Committee, which can recommend corrective measures, including re‑run of voting in specific districts.

---

9.Key takeaways for Stakeholders

• Political Parties – Must integrate ceasefire compliance into campaign platforms; non‑compliance risks disqualification.
• Civil Society – Prospect to mobilize peace monitors and voter education volunteers to reinforce the ceasefire narrative.
• Donor Community – Funding should be earmarked for security logistics, not just election technology, to ensure a safe voting environment.
• International Media – Focus coverage on how the ceasefire supports democratic legitimacy, rather then solely on military developments.

---

Prepared by James carter, senior content strategist, Archyde.com