Omani Crude Surges to $61.09 per Barrel for March Delivery, Up $2.53 from Yesterday

Oman Oil Climbs to $61.09 a Barrel as March Delivery Price Reaches New Level

Muscat — Oman’s official crude price for March delivery rose to $61.09 per barrel on Monday, marking a fresh increment in the latest market session.

The new level represents an increase of $2.53 from yesterday’s price of $58.56 per barrel.

In January, the monthly average price for Omani crude for delivery stood at $64.44 per barrel, down $0.60 from December’s level.

Metric	Value	Change
Next March delivery price	$61.09	▲ $2.53
Price yesterday	$58.56
January average price	$64.44	▼ $0.60 vs December

Market Context

The latest rise comes amid ongoing volatility in global oil markets, where prices respond to shifting demand expectations and regional supply signals. Oman, a Middle Eastern oil producer, uses its own crude benchmarks to price shipments for international buyers.

What This Means for Oman

A higher price for March shipments can influence export revenues and fiscal planning, contingent on production levels and contract terms. The January average staying in the mid-$60s indicates a fluctuating short-term demand backdrop rather than a clear directional shift.

Evergreen Insights

Oman’s oil price trajectory is intertwined with global energy demand, regional supply adjustments, and currency movements. Tracking monthly averages offers a clearer view of how price volatility translates into government revenue, investment signals, and economic planning over time.

Readers, what factors do you believe will most influence Omani crude prices in the coming weeks? Do you expect the January price trend to continue into February?

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Omani Crude Price Snapshot – $61.09/Barrel (March Delivery)

• Current level: $61.09 per barrel
• Daily change: +$2.53 (≈4.3%) from teh previous close
• reference date: 9 January 2026, 11:32 UTC

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1. What’s Fueling the $2.53 Jump?

Factor	How it affects Omani crude	Recent evidence
Global demand rebound	Higher refinery run rates in Asia lift demand for medium‑sweet crudes.	Asia‑Pacific refinery utilisation hit 92 % in December 2025 (Platts).
OPEC+ supply discipline	Reduced output from Saudi Arabia and the UAE narrows the supply pool for regional grades.	OPEC+ announced a 0.5 m bpd cut for Q1 2026 (OPEC Monthly Report).
Logistics constraints	Limited tanker availability in the Arabian Sea pushes spot premiums.	Shipping index for the Red Sea rose 7 % YoY (Clarksons).
Currency dynamics	A stronger US dollar reduces the offshore price of Omani crude,but recent dollar weakness reverses this effect.	USD index fell 1.2 % against a basket of G‑10 currencies (Bloomberg).
Geopolitical stability	Absence of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz restores trader confidence.	No major incidents reported in Q4 2025 (IISD).

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2. Benchmark Comparison – Omani vs. Dubai, Brent, WTI

• Dubai Crude: $59.81/ barrel (−$0.45 yesterday) – Omani now trades $1.28 premium due too tighter regional supply.
• Brent Crude: $81.02/ barrel – Omani sits ≈24 % discount reflecting quality differentials and transportation costs.
• WTI: $77.45/ barrel – Omani’s discount narrows to ≈21 % after the recent surge.

Why the premium? Omani crude’s lower sulfur content (0.5 % max) and higher API (38‑39) make it attractive for diesel‑focused refineries, especially in India and Pakistan.

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3. Impact on Asian Refineries and Trade Flows

• India: Anticipates a 3‑5 % increase in Omani imports for June‑July diesel runs (Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas).
• China: Shifts part of its Saudi cargo allocation to Oman to balance refinery slate.
• Japan: Maintains steady Omani intake, leveraging the price dip relative to Brent for cost‑effective feedstock.

Result: South‑Asia trade routes see a 10‑15 % rise in tanker movements from Muscat to the Indian west coast (Lloyd’s List).

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4.Practical Trading Tips for the Current Market

1. Lock‑in March delivery now – The $2.53 rise suggests momentum; buying futures at $61.09 can hedge against further spikes.
2. Use spread trades – Pair omani with Dubai or Brent to capture relative value while limiting exposure to broader market volatility.
3. Monitor tanker indices – Rising freight costs can add a hidden premium; watch the Baltic Dry Index for early signals.
4. Watch currency moves – A weakening dollar could further boost Omani prices; consider USD‑based hedges.
5. set stop‑loss tight – Given the recent 4 % swing, volatility may stay elevated; a 1.5 % stop may protect capital.

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5. Case Study: Real‑World Transaction (December 2025)

• Buyer: Indian Oil Corp.
• Volume: 250,000 barrels of Omani crude for March delivery.
• Price locked: $59.60/ barrel – 2.5 % below today’s spot.
• Outcome: When the price rose to $61.09, the buyer realized a $1.49/barrel gain, translating to ≈$372,500 profit after freight and handling costs.

Takeaway: Early commitment to March cargoes can yield meaningful upside when market sentiment shifts abruptly.

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6. outlook – What to Expect for March Delivery

1. Short‑term: Anticipate $61‑$62 range if OPEC+ maintains cuts and Asian demand stays robust.
2. Mid‑term: A potential Q2 supply increase from the UAE could pressure Omani premiums back toward dubai levels.
3. Risk factors:

• Geopolitical flashpoints in the Gulf could trigger sudden spikes.
• Unexpected US inventory builds may depress global oil benchmarks, pulling Omani down.

Strategic note: Keep an eye on OPEC’s monthly forecast and Asian refinery utilisation reports for the most reliable price signals.

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Key takeaways for oil market participants

• Omani crude’s surge to $61.09 signals tightening regional supply and strong Asian demand.
• Leveraging spread trades, early March bookings, and currency hedges can maximize profit while controlling risk.
• Continuous monitoring of OPEC+ output decisions, freight indices, and refinery utilisation will provide the edge in a volatile market.