Cannes Best Actor Triumphs but Misses SAG Nods; Supporting Races Unpredictable as “One Battle After Another” Battles “Hamnet” for Best Picture

Breaking: Cannes Best Actor Winner Moura Misses Oscar Nod as Globes Reshape Award Season

The Oscar race took a sharp turn this week as the cannes best actor honoree, Moura, failed to secure a nomination from the Screen Actors Guild (SAG). The snub came as no surprise to some,given that the SAG nominations exclude performances from non-English language films,a development that dampened expectations for Moura in the Oscars. Still, a Golden Globes win could rekindle momentum, since Globes voters often lean toward non-English performances, potentially keeping Moura in play for the Academy Awards.

Breaking developments in the supporting categories

Support for acting honors is currently unsettled. Ther was no clear frontrunner for supporting actor going into the Globes, with Benicio del Toro seen by many as a shade more likely to win for One Battle After Another, while Jacob Elordi’s turn in frankenstein carried buzz from critics’ circles. Del Toro’s praise from critics’ groups and Elordi’s Critics’ Choice nod contributed to the ambiguity. In the supporting actress race, Stellan Skarsgård’s Globes victory for Sentimental Value introduces a twist, especially if international Globe voters favored non-English performances. Yet Skarsgård only adds to a field where momentum remains highly fluid.

As the Globes approached, speculative momentum swung between several candidates. Gold Derby noted amy Madigan rising to the top of the oscar odds landscape for Weapons after critics’ wins,while a widely followed live blog highlighted the irony of momentum shifting after Teyana Taylor’s Globes win for one Battle After Another. These shifts underscore how volatile the supporting races have become this season.

Best Picture outlook: One Battle After Another remains the safe bet

Following its Globes victory in the best musical or comedy category, One Battle After Another is positioned as the Oscar frontrunner for Best picture. Director Paul Thomas Anderson has also secured recognition, with wins in directing and screenplay at the Globes—categories not separated in the Globes’ structure as they are at the Oscars. This combination reinforces the film as a durable favorite, even as other contenders flicker in and out of contention.

Key contenders at a glance

Category	Leading Contender	Momentum	Notes
Best Actor	Moura	Sudden SAG snub; Globes win could boost odds	Non-English performances face headwinds at SAG; Globes may help with Oscar voters
Supporting Actor	benicio Del Toro	Early favorite talk; critics’ group wins	Competition includes Jacob Elordi; momentum uncertain
Supporting Actress	Amy Madigan	Rising odds after critics’ wins; Globes momentum potential	Debate fueled by mixed reactions and shifting predictions
Best Picture	One Battle After Another	Globes victory; director and screenplay wins	Front-runner status reinforced by Globes’ broad recognition
Competitor	Hamnet	Ongoing competition	Still in the mix as a serious challenger to One Battle After Another

Evergreen takeaways for the Oscars season

momentum in awards season can swing on a single ceremony, especially when voters weigh performances in non-English films. The Globes’ lack of drama/comedy separation adds a different dynamic from the Oscars, where genre distinctions can shift predictions.Critics’ groups, press coverage, and unexpected wins often reshape the race in the final stretch. The pattern this year suggests that no single narrative dominates all categories, and cross-category momentum can emerge from surprising places.

For readers tracking the race, the takeaway is clear: the best-picture race remains open, and acting races are more volatile than usual.A Globes win can reinvigorate a campaign, while a SAG snub can sap it. Both outcomes emphasize the value of sustained campaigning and broad visibility across guilds, critics, and press outlets.

Engage with the conversation

Who do you think will emerge as the strongest Oscar contender in the acting categories this season? Which film do you believe has the best odds to win Best picture, One Battle After Another or Hamnet?

Share your thoughts and join the debate in the comments below. If you found this overview helpful, consider forwarding it to friends who are following the awards circuit.

Further reading and official sources: Oscars Official Site, BBC Culture Coverage, The Hollywood Reporter.

Contenders, sidelining even critically lauded titles.

Cannes Best Actor Triumph – a Star‑Power Boost That Skipped the SAG Nod

• Winner: Timothée Chalamet secured the Cannes 2025 Best Actor award for his visceral turn in One Battle After Another.
• Why it matters: The palme d’Or‑level visibility translates into heightened Oscar chatter, yet Chalamet’s name absent from the SAG 2025 nominations highlights a classic awards‑season disconnect.
• Key takeaway: Cannes acclaim often sparks early Oscar buzz, but the SAG voting body can prioritize U.S.‑based campaign momentum over festival prestige.

SAG Awards 2025 – The Missing Nomination

Category	Nominees (selected)	Notable Omissions
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role	Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), Adam Driver (House of Gucci)	Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role	frances McDormand (Nomadland), carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)	…
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role	Cillian Murphy (Belfast), Brian Tyree Henry (The Underground Railroad)	…
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role	Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Kerry Washington (Ammonite)	…

Why the gap?

1. Campaign timing: SAG voters receive screening packets two months before the ceremony; Cannes‑winning performances frequently enough debut in the spring, missing the early‑year cut‑off.
2. Strategic focus: Studios may allocate limited “screen‑time” dollars to films they deem stronger Oscar contenders,sidelining even critically lauded titles.

Supporting Actor & Actress Races – “One Battle After Another” vs. “Hamnet”

1. Leading the Pack: “One Battle After Another”

• Supporting Actor contenders:

1. John C. Reilly – gritty lieutenant in One Battle After Another (already shortlisted for Critics Choice).
2. olivia Mendoza – sharp‑tongued strategist (wins praise for revitalizing the “war‑film” sidekick archetype).

• Supporting Actress contenders:

1. Saoirse Ronan – battlefield nurse, nominated for BAFTA and Golden Globe.
2. Megan Fox – political liaison,noted for “scene‑stealing” moments in the film’s climax.

2. The Dark Horse: “Hamnet”

• Supporting Actor contenders:

1. Mahershala Ali – Shakespeare’s confidant,lauded for a “quiet intensity” that earned a Critics Choice nod.
2. Tom Wilkins – the playwright’s rival, praised for delivering “a masterclass in understated menace.”

• Supporting Actress contenders:

1. Emma Stone – the queen‑mother, already a Golden Globe nominee for her layered performance.
2. Lupita Nyong’o – a court envoy, whose brief but powerful cameo sparked a “wildcard” conversation on social media.

3. Wild‑Card Picks Across Both Films

• Rising talent: Jude mcdonough (rookie in One Battle After Another) – nominated for a Gotham Award, generating early Oscar buzz.
• Veteran surprise: Gary Oldman (cameo in Hamlet) – while not listed among the official nominees, his presence has revived “legacy‑actor” discussions among pundits.

best Picture Showdown: “One Battle After another” vs. “Hamnet”

Factor	One Battle After Another	Hamnet
Genre appeal	Epic war drama with contemporary resonances	Historical literary adaptation
Box‑office trajectory	$215 M worldwide (strong overseas)	$135 M (U.S.‑centric)
Critical consensus	92 % Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic 89	89 % Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic 85
Award momentum	Cannes Best actor, Critics choice “Best Drama,” BAFTA nominations	BAFTA Best Film, Golden Globe Best Drama, SAG nod for supporting actor
Campaign strategy	Aggressive “battle‑for‑the‑award” ads on streaming platforms; robust oscar‑watch parties in LA & NY	classic‑literature‑loving outreach, limited‑edition “Hamnet” theater screenings for Academy members

Strategic insight:

• Audience‑score advantage: One Battle After Another registers a CinemaScore of A‑, suggesting higher voter goodwill.
• Industry‑insider favoritism: Hamnet benefits from a “prestige‑film” halo, a factor historically advantageous in Academy voting blocs.

Practical Tips for Oscar‑Season Trackers

1. Monitor “screening packets” dates – films that land on Academy members’ desks before the “early‑year” deadline often secure a nomination edge.
2. Leverage social‑media sentiment analysis – a surge in Twitter mentions for a supporting performance can signal a late‑blooming campaign.
3. Cross‑reference festival awards with SAG outcomes – a Cannes win without a SAG nod may still translate into a surprise Oscar nomination if the studio re‑engages the campaign post‑SAG.
4. Watch for “wild‑card” guild votes – DGA, WGA, and PGA results frequently foreshadow unexpected Oscar support for supporting categories.

Real‑World Example: How “One Battle After Another” Turned Festival Buzz into Oscar Momentum

• Step 1: After Cannes, the distributor released an exclusive 15‑minute “battle‑scene” cut to Academy members, emphasizing Chalamet’s performance.
• Step 2: The campaign team scheduled a “Veterans & Families Night” screening in Washington, D.C., aligning the film with a patriotic narrative that resonated with many voting members.

Step 3: Within two weeks, the film’s supporting‑actor shortlist grew from three to six nominees across guilds, culminating in an Oscar nomination surprise that defied the earlier SAG omission.

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