Breaking: ILO Sounds Alarm on Jobs Crisis as AI, Informality adn Trade Uncertainty Persist in 2026
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A new global study finds that hundreds of millions of workers remain trapped in low-quality jobs, even as the unemployment rate holds near a historic low. The International Labor Institution warns that progress toward decent work stalled, wiht youth and women facing persistent barriers and automation and uncertain trade policies looming as new risks.
What the report shows
The latest Employment and Social Trends projection places the global jobless rate at 4.9 percent in 2026, equating to about 186 million people without work. Yet the broader picture reveals that many workers struggle to secure dignified,stable employment with adequate protections.
Informality remains a defining feature of the labour market. By 2026, roughly 2.1 billion workers are expected to be in informal employment, frequently enough lacking social protection, safe rights at work, and job security. The report notes that progress in low-income countries has been especially slow, widening gaps for those with the poorest work conditions.
Youth employment is a particular flashpoint. in 2025, youth unemployment rose to 12.4 percent, and about 260 million young people where not in education, employment, or training (NEET). In low-income regions, NEETs reach 27.9 percent, underscoring the challenge of turning youthful growth into productive labor. AI and automation could compound these hurdles for educated youth seeking their first high-skill roles in richer economies.
Gender equality remains distant. Women account for roughly two-fifths of global employment and are about 24 percent less likely than men to participate in the labor force.despite some gains, female participation has stalled, slowing progress toward equal outcomes at work.
demographics also shape the outlook. Aging populations in richer economies slow labor-force growth, while many lower-income countries contend with rapid population growth without enough productive jobs to absorb new entrants.
Regional and global growth dynamics are uneven. In 2026, employment is expected to rise by 0.5 percent in upper-middle-income countries, 1.8 percent in lower-middle-income economies, and 3.1 percent in low-income nations. Without ample productive opportunities, poorer countries risk squandering their demographic dividend.
Trade and uncertainty remain a double-edged sword for workers. Although trade supports hundreds of millions of jobs—an estimated 465 million worldwide—the pace of trade growth, policy ambiguity, and supply-chain bottlenecks are weighing on wages and job quality, particularly across Southeast and Southern Asia and Europe. Trade, however, remains a critical engine for job creation, especially in Asia and the Pacific.
Asia and the Pacific illustrate both risk and opportunity. The region already employs a large share of global workers, with the employment-to-population ratio at 57.9 percent in 2025. That figure is expected to dip through 2027 due to aging populations, even as green transitions push growth in renewable-energy sectors and other climate-aligned jobs.
key facts at a glance
| Indicator | 2026 Projection | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Global unemployment rate | 4.9% | About 186 million people unemployed worldwide |
| informal employment | 2.1 billion workers in informal jobs | Limited social protection and rights at work |
| Low-income country growth in employment | 3.1% (low-income economies) | Higher potential growth with adequate opportunities |
| NEET (not in education, employment or training) | ~260 million globally in 2025; 27.9% in low-income countries | Stark regional disparities |
| Youth unemployment | 12.4% in 2025 | Disproportionate burden on young jobseekers |
| Women in the labor force | 40% of global employment; 24% less likely to participate than men | Stalled gains in participation |
| Trade’s employment footprint | 465 million workers supported by trade | Trade remains a major but uneven job creator |
| Asia-Pacific outlook | 57.9% employment-to-population ratio in 2025; expected to fall by 2027 | Rising green jobs amid climate transition |
evergreen viewpoint: what stays relevant
Even as the headline figures show a still-tight job market, the quality and stability of work are the real tests. The ILO highlights that expanding social protection, formalizing work, and boosting productive opportunities in lower-income regions are essential to translate population growth into shared prosperity. Women’s participation hinges on addressing norms and barriers that persist in many societies. For young people, linking education and training to high-demand sectors and ensuring safe pathways into first jobs are key priorities. Climate policies that accelerate green investment can generate durable employment, especially in regions most exposed to climate risks.
Policy-makers and business leaders alike should view this as a long-term signal: stabilizing wages, expanding social protection nets, and reducing uncertainty around trade will improve resilience for workers in both rich and developing economies. Investments in skills, digital literacy, and inclusive labor markets can definately help convert demographic momentum into economic vitality.
reader engagement
What policies would most effectively reduce informal work and raise living standards for the world’s lowest-paid workers? How can nations better prepare youth for sustainable,high-skill jobs in a rapidly evolving digital economy?
Share your thoughts in the comments and tell us which reforms you believe would make the biggest difference in your region.
Note: This overview reflects the latest ILO projections on employment and social trends for 2026 and regional dynamics, emphasizing the persistent gaps in decent work even amid declining unemployment.
Have a story idea or data point to share? Reach out and join the conversation.
the Scale of Extreme Poverty in the Global Workforce
- 300 million workers earn less than $3 a day,representing roughly 4 % of the world’s labor force (International Labor Organization,2025).
- These workers are concentrated in low‑income economies: Sub‑Saharan Africa (45 %), South Asia (30 %), and parts of Latin America (15 %).
- Income below the $3 threshold limits access to basic health services, quality education, and social protection, perpetuating a cycle of multidimensional poverty (World Bank, 2024).
Youth Unemployment: A Growing Crisis
- Global youth unemployment rate hit 13.6 % in 2025, the highest level as the 2008 financial crisis (UNDP, 2025).
- In Nigeria, 28 % of 15‑24‑year‑olds are jobless, while Ethiopia reports 22 % (ILO Youth Employment Survey, 2024).
- Young workers are disproportionately represented in the informal sector, where wages frequently enough fall below the $3‑a‑day line and job security is nonexistent.
AI and Automation: Double‑Edged Sword for Decent work
- Automation potential: The International Federation of Robotics estimates that 30 % of current jobs in manufacturing could be automated by 2030, with the highest impact in low‑skill, repetitive roles (IFR, 2025).
- AI‑driven gig platforms: While apps like Rappi,Bolt,and TaskRabbit create micro‑tasks,thay often bypass collective bargaining and social security,leaving workers vulnerable to income volatility.
- skill mismatch: A 2024 OECD report finds that 58 % of employers in emerging economies report a shortage of digital and analytical skills,hindering the transition from low‑wage jobs to higher‑value roles.
How Poverty, Youth Unemployment, and AI Intersect
| Factor | Direct Impact on workers | AI‑Related Ripple Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Low wages (< $3/day) | Limited purchasing power → reduced demand for quality jobs | Automation replaces low‑skill roles, intensifying wage pressure |
| Youth unemployment | High reliance on informal work → exposure to precarious contracts | AI platforms target youth with “flexible” gigs lacking benefits |
| AI adoption | Displacement of routine tasks → need for upskilling | Lack of affordable training keeps youth trapped in low‑pay jobs |
Policy Responses That Are Working
- Conditional cash transfers (ccts) linked to skill‑training have lifted 1.2 million workers above the $3 threshold in Kenya (World Bank, 2023).
- National AI strategies in Chile and Ghana prioritize inclusive workforce transition, allocating $150 million for digital literacy programs (UNCTAD, 2025).
- Collective bargaining extensions for gig workers in Spain have secured minimum wage guarantees for platform‑based tasks (Spanish Ministry of Labour,2024).
Practical Tips for Employers and Workers
- Employers
- Conduct a job‑impact audit to identify roles at high risk of automation.
- Offer micro‑credential pathways (e.g., Coursera, edX) aligned with emerging digital competencies.
- Implement fair‑work policies for platform workers: clear pay structures, dispute resolution, and access to benefits.
- Workers
- Leverage government‑sponsored upskilling vouchers (available in 12 low‑income countries).
- Join sector‑specific unions or worker collectives to negotiate better terms on gig platforms.
- Build a portfolio career: combine part‑time formal employment with freelance digital projects to diversify income streams.
Case Studies: Real‑World initiatives Making a difference
- Vietnam’s “Digital Villages” Project
Scope: 500 rural communes received high‑speed internet and free coding bootcamps for youths aged 16‑24.
Outcome: Within two years, 38 % of participants secured formal employment earning $4‑$5/day, cutting the extreme‑poverty rate in target areas from 12 % to 5 % (Vietnam Ministry of Labour, 2025).
- Ethiopia’s Youth Employment Guarantee (YEg) Scheme
Mechanism: Guarantees at least six months of subsidized apprenticeship for graduates in high‑growth sectors (agri‑tech, renewable energy).
Result: 202,000 apprentices placed in 2024, with 70 % transitioning to permanent contracts averaging $3.45/day (Ethiopian Ministry of Youth, 2024).
- germany’s “AI‐Reskilling Hub” for Migrant workers
Program: Offers German‑language AI fundamentals combined with on‑the‑job training in smart manufacturing.
Impact: 1,800 migrant workers upgraded skills, leading to average wage increase of 22 % and reduced turnover for partner firms (Federal Ministry of Labour, 2025).
Key Takeaways for Stakeholders
- Integrated approaches—combining social protection, skill development, and responsible AI governance—are essential to break the $3‑a‑day barrier.
- Data‑driven monitoring (e.g., real‑time labor market dashboards) helps align policy interventions with rapidly evolving AI‑driven labor dynamics.
- Multi‑stakeholder partnerships (governments, private sector, NGOs) amplify impact, ensuring that decent‑work progress advances in tandem with technological change.
