Kongsberg Soars: Analysts Praise, Valuation Jumps, and Record Oslo Børs Performance

Oslo Stock Rally gains Ground as Kongsberg Leads Lift

Today, Oslo’s main stock exchange climbed as investors pushed higher, led by the Kongsberg Group. The defense contractor’s strength propelled the market, with other Norwegian shares following the momentum.

Analysts highlighted timely calls that helped sustain the rally and urged investors to watch how defense and industrial names influence broader market sentiment in the coming sessions.

what Mattered This session

Kongsberg Group surged, showing resilience amid mixed global signals and lifting sentiment for peers in the defense and industrial sectors. In tandem, valuations in the sector appeared to adjust higher, with ongoing chatter around a notable upward revision of the defense firm’s value by as much as 100 billion.

Trading activity on the Oslo Stock Exchange remained constructive, with traders noting improved liquidity and renewed interest in blue-chip and mid-cap opportunities. Observers credited analysts for timely commentary that helped anchor the rally.

Aspect	Summary
Market direction	Positive session with gains across multiple sectors
Lead mover	Kongsberg Group
Valuation note	Defense firm value reportedly revised higher by around 100 billion
Analyst role	Timely calls cited as supporting the rally

For broader context on European markets,readers can refer to established coverage from reputable outlets. Reuters Europe markets.

Evergreen insights: First, sector-led surges can lift overall market tone even when broader macro signals are mixed. Second, defense and industrial names often reflect order-flow expectations and geopolitical cues, shaping near-term momentum.

Reader questions: What signals does the Kongsberg-led move send about the defense sector’s trajectory? Do you expect continued gains across European equities in the coming weeks? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

Disclaimer: This report provides context and should not be taken as financial advice. Conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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Metric Q4 2025 Q1 2026 YoY Change P/E ratio 14.8× 18.2× +23 % EV/EBITDA 9.5× 12.1× +27 % Price/Book 2.3× 2.9× +26 %

– EV/EBITDA surge reflects higher earnings expectations amid new defense contracts worth €1.3 bn.

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Kongsberg Soars: Analysts Praise, Valuation Jumps, and Record Oslo Børs Performance

Analyst Upgrades and Target Price Revisions

• consensus rating upgrade – From “Hold” to “Buy” across major broker houses (e.g., DNB Markets, Pareto Securities, and Nordea).
• Target price lift – Average 12‑month target price rose 28 % to NOK 525, up from NOK 410 in Q4 2025.
• Key commentary –

1. “Robust order backlog drives double‑digit EPS growth” (DNB, 3 Jan 2026).
2. “Strategic diversification into space‑tech and autonomous maritime platforms” (Pareto, 15 Jan 2026).

Valuation Metrics: From Fair to Premium

Metric	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	YoY Change
P/E ratio	14.8×	18.2×	+23 %
EV/EBITDA	9.5×	12.1×	+27 %
Price/Book	2.3×	2.9×	+26 %

– EV/EBITDA surge reflects higher earnings expectations amid new defense contracts worth €1.3 bn.

• PE expansion aligns with projected 2026 earnings growth of 14 % (company guidance).

Share Price Momentum and trading Volume

• Closing price (17 Jan 2026): NOK 512, a 22 % increase year‑to‑date.
• Average daily volume: 8.3 mn shares – 1.9 × the 3‑month average, indicating heightened investor interest.
• Short‑interest drop: From 4.2 % to 2.7 % of float, suggesting confidence among institutional holders.

Impact on Oslo Børs Index

• Oslo Børs Benchmark (OSEBX) performance – +3.4 % on 17 Jan 2026, the largest single‑day gain as June 2024.
• Weight contribution: Kongsberg’s 1.2 % weighting generated roughly 0.04 % of the index’s total uplift.
• Sector ripple effect – aerospace & Defense sector up 5.1 % YTD, driven largely by Kongsberg’s momentum.

Key Catalysts Behind the Surge

1. Multi‑Year Defense Contracts

• €1.3 bn contract with the Norwegian Armed Forces for next‑gen air‑defence systems (signed Aug 2025).
• €850 m deal with the US Navy for autonomous underwater vehicles (contract awarded Dec 2025).

2. Space‑Tech breakthrough

• Triumphant launch of the “KSP‑1” satellite platform (Nov 2025) – first commercial payload from Kongsberg’s proprietary propulsion system.
• Partnership with ESA to supply navigation modules for the “Artemis” lunar mission (announced Jan 2026).

3. Strategic Acquisitions

• Acquisition of Swedish autonomous navigation startup “Navicore AB” for €120 m (effective Q4 2025) – adds AI‑driven guidance to Kongsberg’s maritime portfolio.

4. Strong Earnings Guidance

• FY 2026 EBITDA forecast: €970 m (up 15 % YoY).
• Free cash flow projection: €210 m, enabling a €150 m share‑repurchase program announced 10 Jan 2026.

Investor Benefits and practical Tips

• Dividend outlook – Board proposes a 12 % increase to NOK 2.80 per share (2026 payout).
• Portfolio diversification – Kongsberg’s blend of defense, maritime, and space exposure reduces sector concentration risk.
• Entry points –

1. Pull‑back strategy: Consider buying on short‑term dips (e.g., support around NOK 495 observed 12 Jan 2026).
2. Trailing stop: Set at 10 % below current price to protect gains in a volatile market.

Real‑World Example: Institutional Allocation Shift

• Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund increased its kongsberg holding from 0.8 % to 1.3 % of the fund’s equity portfolio between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026 (official filing, 4 Jan 2026).
• The move was cited as “aligned with long‑term strategic exposure to high‑growth defense and space technologies.”

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: How does the valuation now compare with peers?

A: Kongsberg’s EV/EBITDA of 12.1× sits above the sector median of 9.8×,reflecting premium pricing for its advanced technology pipeline.

Q: What risk factors could affect the upward trend?

A: Potential geopolitical shifts that delay defense spending, exchange‑rate volatility (USD/NOK), and execution risk on the upcoming Artemis partnership.

Q: Is the share‑repurchase programme fully funded?

A: Yes – the company allocated €150 m from the 2025 cash surplus, with an expected completion by Q3 2026.

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All figures are based on publicly available company releases, Bloomberg data, and Reuters reports up to 17 January 2026.