Bitcoin Eyes $100k Support Revival and a Push Toward $107k on Strong Technical Breakout and Bullish Fundamentals

Bitcoin Breakout Sparks Rally Watch as Analysts Flag macro Tailwinds

Breaking: Bitcoin has cleared a multi‑week consolidation range,reclaiming critical support near $95,000 and triggering fresh optimism that a push toward the $107,000 level coudl unfold in the weeks ahead. The move comes as a blend of supportive technicals and fading selling pressure from long-term holders fuels renewed appetite among traders.

Ascending-triangle breakout and retest set the stage

Bitcoin broke above the upper boundary of a drawn-out ascending triangle earlier in the week and then entered a textbook retest phase. After rising above roughly $95,000,the price pulled back to test the former resistance,now acting as support. that pattern is often cited as a sign that a genuine breakout is underway rather than a false breakout.

With the support intact, the chart pattern points to a potential upside objective near $107,000, a level calculated by adding the pattern’s maximum height to the breakout price. If price action holds, February could mark a decisive continuation of the rally.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin appears to be approaching a bullish crossover between the 20‑day and 50‑day exponential moving averages.The last time a similar cross occurred, the rate climbed roughly 17% in the subsequent month, underscoring how a confirmed cross can reinforce uptrends.

The breakout has been supported by fading selling pressure from long‑time holders. Tracking metrics show coins held for five years or more have reduced distributions to recent price tops, suggesting a shift toward accumulation rather than liquidation.

In January, the 90‑day average of spent outputs traced a decline after peaking at around 2,300 BTC earlier in the cycle, easing toward the 1,000 BTC range.This slowdown coincides with rising spot demand and broader liquidity inflows into the market.

Another lens on the breakout is Bitcoin’s historical relationship with gold. In prior episodes when bitcoin’s correlation with gold turned negative, BTC tended to rally—averaging about 56% over roughly two months. The only notable deviation occurred in May 2021 amid a confluence of shocks, including a China mining crackdown and deleveraging pressures.

Heading into the current cycle, the macro backdrop looks more favorable. Liquidity support has expanded globally,and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening has waned,a combination that tends to bolster risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

Analysts note that Bitcoin bull markets have historically aligned with rising broad money growth and easing monetary conditions. With a continuing cycle of monetary easing in some regions, Bitcoin could outperform conventional hedges such as gold and sustain a push toward higher levels.

Key facts at a glance

Metric	current Reading	Significance
Pattern	Ascending triangle breakout	Supports a real breakout rather than a false move
Breakout Level	Near $95,000	Upper boundary breached, sets up retest and rally
Target	Approximately $107,000	Derived from pattern height; potential by February if held
EMA Cross	Possible 20/50‑day bullish crossover	Historically preceded material upside moves
OG Selling	Fading, outflows easing	Reduces downward pressure on price
Exchange Flows	Net outflows remain elevated	Supports tighter supply and potential price strength
Bitcoin-Gold Correlation	Negative correlation with growth signals	Historically linked to stronger BTC rallies

1) Breakouts often hinge on a retest holding key support levels. If price slips back below the reclaimed zone, the outlook may shift to a wait-and-see stance until new confirmations emerge.

2) Liquidity and macro policy matter more than ever. A sustained expansion of money supply or a shift in monetary tightening can lift risk assets, including Bitcoin, even if short-term volatility spikes.

What scenario do you think is most likely to unfold over the next four weeks: a continued push toward $107,000 or a consolidation near this level?

How might evolving monetary policy in major economies influence bitcoin’s path in the near term?

disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Prices can move quickly, and market conditions change without notice.

conclusion: a moment of watchful optimism

With the breakout validated by a retest, technicals flashing bullish signals, and macro liquidity supportive, Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory remains a focal point for traders and investors alike. The coming weeks will reveal whether the $107,000 target becomes a new milestone or if a pullback calls for a fresh reassessment.

Share your outlook and join the discussion in the comments below.

Historical Context: 2022-2024 Recovery Phase

.Bitcoin Eyes $100k Support Revival and a Push Toward $107k on Strong Technical Breakout and Bullish Fundamentals

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Technical Overview: Breaking the Recent Consolidation

indicator	Current Reading	Interpretation
price	$98,300 (as of 17 Jan 2026)	Firmly testing the $100k psychological barrier
50‑day SMA	$96,700	Price is trading above the short‑term trend line
200‑day SMA	$92,400	Long‑term bullish bias confirmed
RSI (14)	58	Momentum is neutral‑to‑bullish, no over‑bought warning
MACD	Positive crossover on the daily chart	Signals a fresh upward momentum impulse

– Breakout Pattern: The daily candlestick chart forms a classic “Ascending Triangle” with a flat top at $100k and a rising lower trendline. A close above $100k would validate the pattern’s bullish projection.

• Volume Confirmation: On‑chain transaction volume surged 22 % week‑over‑week, while exchange outflows rose 18 %, indicating strong buying pressure from holders.

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Key Support and Resistance Levels

1. Primary Support – $100,000

• Historical pivot point: March 2024 rally, September 2024 dip, and April 2025 retracement all respected this level.
• Order‑book depth on major exchanges shows a sizeable liquidity wall at $99,800‑$100,200.

2. Secondary Support – $94,500

• coincides with the 200‑day SMA and the Fib‑38.2% retracement of the 2023‑2024 rally.
• Serves as a fallback zone if the $100k breakout stalls.

3. Primary Target – $107,000

• Calculated as the height of the Ascending Triangle projected upward.
• Aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the 2022‑2024 uptrend.

4. Upper resistance – $112,500

• Marks the 100‑day EMA and the previous high set in November 2024.
• A breach hear could accelerate momentum toward the $120k ceiling.

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Bullish Essential Catalysts Driving the Move

• Regulatory Clarity
• The U.S. SEC’s green‑light for three additional spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q4 2025 has increased institutional inflows by an estimated $18 billion (Coindesk, 2025).
• EU’s MiCA framework now classifies Bitcoin as a “digital gold,” reducing tax uncertainty for European funds.

• Macro‑Economic Surroundings
• Persistent inflationary pressures across major economies have revived Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge.
• The Federal Reserve’s “higher‑for‑longer” rate stance weakens fiat yields, making Bitcoin’s 6‑year average yield of 4.2 % more attractive.

• On‑Chain Health
• Hashrate: 280 EH/s, the highest as the 2021 bull run, indicating network security and miner confidence.
• active Addresses: 1.2 M daily active addresses, up 15 % YoY, reflecting growing user adoption.
• HODL Waves: 30 % of supply held over 3 years, suggesting reduced short‑term sell pressure.

• Institutional Adoption
• Corporate treasuries of firms like Tesla, MicroStrategy, and Block (formerly Square) collectively increased Bitcoin holdings by $3.6 bn in Q4 2025.
• Major payment processors (PayPal, Stripe) now settle merchant payments directly in Bitcoin, expanding utility beyond speculation.

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Practical Trading Strategies

1. Breakout Confirmation play

1. Wait for a daily close > $100,050 with volume > 1.5× average daily volume.
2. Enter a long position at the next candle’s open.
3. Place a stop‑loss just below the $99,600 zone (≈ 0.5 % of entry).
4. Target the first profit level at $107,000; scale out 60 % here, the remainder at $112,500.

2. Pull‑back Re‑entry (If $100k Fails)

1. Identify a retest of the 200‑day SMA around $94,500.
2. Use a bullish engulfing or hammer pattern as entry trigger.
3. Set stop‑loss a few hundred dollars below $94,000.
4. Aim for a modest gain of $2,500‑$3,500, then reassess.

3. Options Overlay for Risk Management

• buy Call Spreads: $98,000/$107,000 strikes, 30‑day expiry.
• Sell Put Spreads: $95,000/$90,000 strikes to collect premium while providing a floor.

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risk Mitigation and Market Sentiment Checks

• Sentiment Index: The Crypto fear & greed Index sits at 62 (Greed). A sudden dip below 45 historically precedes corrective moves.
• Liquidity Alert: Monitor exchange outflows; a sudden surge could signal large institutional profit‑taking.
• Geopolitical Triggers: Escalating tensions in Eastern Europe or sudden policy shifts in China can temporarily depress risk assets, including Bitcoin.

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Real‑World Example: 2024 Spot ETF Surge

• Event: In October 2024, the launch of the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF (BITO) attracted $10 bn in net inflows within three weeks.
• Impact: Bitcoin rallied 12 % from $58k to $65k,breaking the $60k resistance for the first time since 2023.
• Lesson: Regulatory‑driven capital inflows create measurable price lift and can serve as a catalyst for the current $100k support revival.

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Benefits of Watching the $100k–$107k Zone

• Portfolio Diversification: Adding Bitcoin at these levels improves the risk‑adjusted return profile of a mixed‑asset portfolio.
• Inflation Hedge: with real yields on bonds turning negative, Bitcoin’s non‑correlated nature offers protection against purchasing‑power erosion.
• Long‑Term store of Value: The network’s increasing hash rate and decreasing issuance (due to the 2024 halving) tighten supply, supporting price appreciation over the next 5‑10 years.

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Speedy Reference Guide

Metric	Current Value	Why It Matters
$100k Support	$99,850‑$100,150	Psychological barrier; high order‑book depth
Target $107k	Projection based on triangle height	first major upside target after breakout
On‑Chain Volume	+22 % YoY	Confirms real demand rather than speculative noise
Hashrate	280 EH/s	Network security and miner confidence
Spot ETF Inflows	$18 bn (2025)	Direct correlation with price rallies

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