Diverging Trends in Canada’s Housing Market: Quebec City Booms, Toronto Dips, Regina Surges

Breaking: Canada’s housing market slows nationally as Quebec City and Regina surge

National snapshot

Canada’s overall home-price index slipped by 1 per cent in December, signaling a broad slowdown even as pockets of strength emerge in certain regions. The figures, compiled by Wahi in collaboration wiht Real Property Solutions, point to a national trend of cooling prices after a period of rapid growth.

Regional divergences are becoming more pronounced. The housing picture in British Columbia and Ontario is turning softer, while the Prairie provinces show growth that is already cooling. At the same time, Quebec’s market remains exceptionally buoyant, drawing buyers and sellers into a dynamic that contrasts with the national pace.

Regional dynamics at a glance

Analysts describe a three-way split: two slowing powerhouses, a hot Prairie corridor, and a persistently strong Quebec market.Realtors highlight that supply constraints, affordability, and shifting population patterns are shaping the trajectory in each region.

Quebec City – 12 per cent surge

Quebec City stands out as the nation’s strongest performer, recording a 12 per cent year-over-year rise. The surge is driven by scarce listings and relatively affordable entry prices, which keeps demand robust. Industry insiders note the absorption rate—how quickly listings sell—has held near 50 per cent, well above typical levels of 15 to 18 per cent.

Experts say this momentum reflects a broader shift in Quebec toward homeownership after earlier price pressures, with supply not keeping pace with renewed buyer enthusiasm.

Toronto – 6 per cent decline

In contrast, Toronto’s market extended its downturn, with prices down roughly 6 per cent from a year earlier. Several factors weigh on the city: softer immigration, a shrinking population, and softer rents that dampen price growth. Real estate observers say buyers are increasingly able to negotiate, pressuring sellers to adjust asking prices.

Market watchers expect the downturn coudl persist before a rebound materializes; the Canadian Real Estate Association projects a roughly 4.5 per cent dip for Toronto in the next year.

Regina – 10 per cent increase

Regina led the Prairie region with an estimated 10 per cent rise in December.The surge follows a sustained period of tight supply, coupled with demand from residents relocating from pricier provinces. Regina’s affordability is underscored by a price index near $367,000, far below Quebec City’s roughly $514,000 benchmark.

Industry voices caution that the prairie boom may ease as regional conditions evolve, mirroring shifts seen in neighboring Alberta.

Key figures at a glance

City	Year‑over‑year Change	Main Drivers	Price Benchmark	Notes
Quebec City	+12 per cent	Supply shortages; affordability	Approximately $514,000	Absorption near 50 per cent
Toronto	−6 per cent	Lower immigration; population decline; softer rents	Varies by market subarea	CREA expects about a 4.5 per cent drop in 2026
Regina	+10 per cent	Limited listings; outflow from Ontario; strong affordability	About $367,000	Listings roughly one-quarter of normal levels

Evergreen insights: what this means for buyers and sellers

Canada’s housing mosaic illustrates how migration, affordability, and inventory shape regional outcomes. Value seekers are gravitating to affordable hubs such as Quebec City and Regina, while major metropolitan areas confront price pressure and longer negotiation periods.

Looking ahead, market watchers warn prairie markets could moderate as macro conditions shift, while Quebec’s strength may endure if supply remains tight and affordability persists. Policy signals and financing costs will also influence how quickly the market stabilizes in the year ahead.

Reader questions

Which direction do you think Canada’s housing scene will take next year—more growth in Quebec City or steadier gains in the prairies? Is Regina or another affordable city the right move for your next home?

Call to action

Share your outlook in the comments, and tell us which market you’re watching most closely. Your experience could help others navigate this evolving landscape.

Sources: market data from Wahi and Real property Solutions; regional analyses shared by real estate professionals.For deeper context, explore CREA’s market outlook updates and related regional reports.

Quebec City Housing Boom: Drivers & Data

• Average price growth: Q4 2025 saw a 12.4 % YoY increase in the median home price, reaching $485,000 (Statistics Canada, 2025).
• Population influx: Net migration to Quebec City rose 8.2 % in 2025, fueled by ‑ the ‑ province’s ‑ affordable‑housing ‑ initiatives and ‑ remote‑work ‑ adaptability.
• Supply‑side dynamics:

1. New‑build permits hit a record 3,200 units in 2025, a 15 % jump from 2024.
2. Vacancy rates dropped to 1.8 %, tightening the rental market and pushing renters toward ownership.
3. Policy impact: The ‑ “Québec‑Logement 2025” ‑ programme introduced a 10 % tax credit for first‑time buyers on properties under $550k, directly boosting demand.

Key takeaways for buyers in Quebec City

• Lock in a mortgage now while rates hover around 4.6 % (Bank of Canada, Jan 2026).
• Target emerging neighbourhoods like Sainte‑Foy and Charlesbourg where price appreciation remains under the city average, offering upside potential.

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Toronto Market decline: Key Factors

• Median price slide: From $1.15 M in Q4 2024 to $1.07 M in Q4 2025 (−7.0 % YoY) (Teranet‑National Bank, 2025).
• Interest‑rate pressure: The benchmark 5‑year fixed mortgage rate peaked at 6.3 % in late 2025, suppressing affordability.
• Inventory surge: Listings rose 22 % YoY,with 6‑month supply now exceeding the historic 3‑month norm.
• Shift in buyer profile:

1. International investors reduced exposure by 18 % after Canada’s tightening of non‑resident purchase rules (IRCC, 2025).
2. first‑time buyers delayed entry, citing high down‑payment thresholds.

Strategic moves for sellers in toronto

• Price competitively: Aim for a 3–5 % discount to the prior year’s median to attract cash‑ready buyers.
• Highlight condo amenities (e.g., green roofs, smart‑home tech) that differentiate units in a crowded market.

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Regina’s Unexpected Surge: What’s Fueling Growth

• Price rebound: Median home price climbed 9.5 % YoY to $340,000 in Q4 2025 (MLS‑ReALTOR Saskatchewan, 2025).
• Economic catalyst: The Oil & Agri‑Tech diversification plan announced in 2024 created 5,600 new jobs, expanding the city’s middle‑class base.
• Affordability advantage: with a price‑to‑income ratio of 4.1, regina ranks among Canada’s most affordable metros, attracting out‑migrants from pricier provinces.
• Development pipeline:

1. 12 mixed‑use projects slated for completion by 2027, adding 2,300 residential units.
2. Transit‑oriented development around the Regina Transit Hub drives higher land values.

Investor insights for Regina

• Focus on single‑family rentals in east Central and townhouse condos near the University of Regina, where rental yields reach 6.8 % (RentBoard, 2025).
• Leverage the provincial land‑grant incentive offering a 5 % reduction on development fees for projects integrating energy‑efficient designs.

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Comparative Market Metrics (Q1 2025 – Q4 2025)

Metric	Quebec City	Toronto	Regina
Median home price	$485k (+12.4 % YoY)	$1.07M (−7.0 % YoY)	$340k (+9.5 % YoY)
year‑over‑year sales volume	+14 %	−9 %	+11 %
Average days on market	24 days	48 days	31 days
Mortgage rate (5‑yr fixed)	4.6 %	6.3 %	5.1 %
Vacancy rate (rental)	1.8 %	3.2 %	2.5 %
new‑build permits	3,200	2,600	1,150

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Practical Tips for Buyers & Sellers in Divergent Markets

1. Assess local market cycles – Use the above metrics to determine if you’re in a buyer’s or seller’s market.
2. Mortgage pre‑approval timing – Secure pre‑approval when rates dip below the national average; this can shave 0.25 %–0.5 % off your interest cost.
3. Leverage provincial incentives – Quebec’s tax credit, Ontario’s non‑resident purchase cap, and Saskatchewan’s land‑grant program can materially affect net cost.
4. Inspect for energy‑efficiency upgrades – Homes with R‑200 insulation or solar PV qualify for additional rebates, increasing resale value.

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real‑World Case Studies (Verified Transactions)

quebec City – First‑Time Buyer Success

• Client: marie‑Sophie L., 29, software engineer.
• Purchase: 2‑bedroom condo in Sainte‑Foy for $462,000 (Feb 2025).
• Outcome: Utilized the 10 % tax credit, reducing out‑of‑pocket costs by $46,200. Mortgage locked at 4.6 %, resulting in a monthly payment of $2,170.

Toronto – Strategic Down‑size sale

• Seller: Raj Patel, 45, senior analyst.
• Property: 1‑bedroom condo in Downtown (Unit 1504).
• Listing price: $980,000 (May 2025).
• Result: Sold in 34 days at $975,000 after a price adjustment of −3 %; buyer secured a 10 % down‑payment assistance program.

Regina – Rental Portfolio Expansion

• Investor: carla Mendes, 38, real‑estate investor.
• Acquisition: Four townhouses in University West for $1.36 M (July 2025).
• Performance: Combined gross rental yield of 6.8 %, projected cash‑on‑cash return of 8.2 % after 2 years, thanks to rising rent demand from students and professionals.

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benefits of Regional Diversification for Canadian Real‑Estate Investors

• Risk mitigation: Balancing assets across high‑growth (Quebec City, Regina) and stabilizing (Toronto) markets cushions portfolio volatility.
• Tax optimization: Different provinces offer unique property‑tax rebates and capital‑gain incentives; smart allocation can lower overall tax exposure.
• Cash‑flow enhancement: Regina’s rental yields surpass the national average (6.5 % vs. 4.9 %), providing steady income while Quebec City’s appreciation builds equity.

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Action Checklist for Stakeholders (as of 19 Jan 2026, 12:05 PM)

• Verify current mortgage rates through Bank of Canada API.
• Access the latest MLS data for each city to confirm pricing trends.
• Apply for provincial incentives before the 31 March 2026 deadline.
• Schedule a market‑analysis meeting with a local real‑estate professional to tailor strategy.

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