NOAA Warns of Major Solar Storm: Aurora Lights Expected in Up to 24 States, Texas Unlikely to See Them

Geomagnetic Storm Alert: Aurora Potential Across Dozens Of States As Solar Storm Approaches

Forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Governance’s Space weather Prediction Center warn of elevated geomagnetic activity through Tuesday after a powerful solar flare unleashed a coronal mass ejection toward Earth. The CME,a cloud of charged solar particles,is expected to interact with Earth’s magnetic field and could trigger a strong geomagnetic storm,painting the sky with color for observers.

Officials say as many as 24 states could fall inside the auroral visibility zone. While northern and mid-latitude regions have the best odds for a display, residents in texas and other southern states are unlikely to see luminous auroras unless skies are exceptionally clear and conditions align just right.

Across mid-latitude and northern areas, a faint glow on the horizon remains possible if conditions are favorable. Auroras typically stay north of the lower 48, making southern states less likely to witness a pronounced light show.

Where the Sky Might Light Up

Forecasters have not released a definitive state-by-state list yet. If the geomagnetic storm strengthens,more areas could gain visibility,with northern regions seeing the strongest odds.

Forecast Windows And How They Work

Short-term (about 15–45 minutes): Forecasts reach their highest accuracy within minutes, using satellites positioned roughly 1.5 million kilometers from Earth to measure the solar wind and magnetic field before it arrives.

Medium-range (hours to days): A day or two in advance is possible by monitoring coronal holes and coronal mass ejections on the Sun. Forecasts become less certain as CMEs can alter speed and direction during transit.

Longer-term (about 27 days): The Sun rotates about every 27 days, permitting long-lasting solar features to face Earth again. If auroras occurred roughly 27 days ago, they could reappear within a day or two.

Key facts about the geomagnetic storm and potential aurora visibility

Aspect	Details
Event	Approaching solar storm from a coronal mass ejection
Potential visibility	Up to 24 states possible; best odds in northern and mid-latitude regions
Forecast windows	Short-term: 15–45 minutes; Medium-range: hours to days; Long-term: ~27 days
Forecast methods	Near-term via satellites; mid-term via solar wind and CME tracking; long-term linked to solar rotation
Geography	Auroras favor higher latitudes; southern states have lower chances without unusually strong activity

For up-to-date guidance, visit the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: NOAA space Weather, and explore NASA’s aurora resources: NASA aurora.

Evergreen Insights: How Auroras Evolve And What to Do

Auroras arise from interactions between the solar wind and Earth’s magnetic field, driven by solar activity such as sunspots and coronal holes. Forecasters combine solar wind measurements, CME tracking, and knowledge of the Sun’s rotation to estimate when lights may appear. For observers, dark, clear skies—away from city lights—offer the best chance to catch shifting curtains of green, and sometimes red or purple hues.

Two questions for readers: Have you ever witnessed an aurora, and where were you when you saw it? What tips would you share with beginners hoping to spot the northern lights?

share this breaking update with fellow sky enthusiasts, and tell us your plans to observe auroras if conditions align with forecasts.

Northwest Washington, Oregon (northern) 21:30 – 03:30 Southern Tier connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, ohio 20:00 – 02:00

Up to 24 states may experience visible auroras, especially when the Kp index reaches 8–9. Cloud cover and local light pollution will still limit visibility in urban centers.

.### What NOAA’s Latest Solar Storm Warning Means

• Agency involved: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Management (NOAA) – Space weather Prediction Center (SWPC)
• Event type: Major geomagnetic storm triggered by a fast‑moving coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun’s surface.
• Forecast window: 2026‑01‑20 02:00 UTC → 2026‑01‑21 06:00 UTC (≈ 28 hours).
• Kp index projection: 7–9 (storm‑level),with peak values expected around 8.5.
• Primary impact: Intense auroral displays visible far south of the usual aurora oval; heightened risk to satellite communications, GPS accuracy, and power‑grid stability.

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geographic Reach – States Likely to see the Aurora

Region	States (expected visibility)	Typical viewing window (local time)
Upper Midwest	Minnesota, wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota	21:00 – 02:00
Great Plains	Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Oklahoma	22:00 – 03:00
Northeast	New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine	20:00 – 01:00
Mid‑Atlantic	Maryland, Delaware, virginia (north), Washington, D.C.	20:30 – 01:30
Mountain West	Colorado, Wyoming, Montana (southern), Idaho (northern)	22:00 – 04:00
pacific Northwest	Washington, Oregon (northern)	21:30 – 03:30
Southern Tier	Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Ohio	20:00 – 02:00

Up to 24 states may experience visible auroras, especially when the kp index reaches 8–9. Cloud cover and local light pollution will still limit visibility in urban centers.

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Why Texas Is Unlikely to See the Lights

• Latitude factor: austin (30.3° N) and Dallas (32.8° N) sit well below the typical auroral oval for a Kp ≈ 8 event.
• Historical data: The last major aurora visible in Texas occurred during the Carrington Event of 1859, with a Kp estimated at 10+. Modern storms rarely push the oval that far south.
• Real‑time monitoring: NOAA’s live Kp map (as of 2026‑01‑19 18:00 UTC) shows the auroral boundary stopping just north of the Arkansas‑Louisiana border.

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Immediate effects on Technology & Infrastructure

1. Satellite operations – Increased drag on low‑Earth‑orbit satellites; potential temporary loss of telemetry.
2. Radio communications – HF and VHF bands may experience blackout periods, especially on the night side of the Earth.
3. Power grids – High‑latitude transmission lines could see geomagnetically induced currents (GICs); utilities in the Upper Midwest are on standby.
4. GPS & navigation – Positioning errors of up to 30 meters reported during previous Kp ≥ 8 storms.

Source: NOAA SWPC “Space Weather Impacts” briefing, 2026‑01‑19.

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Practical Tips for Aurora Chasers (2026 event)

• Check real‑time Kp forecasts – Use NOAA’s “aurora Forecast” widget or apps like “SpaceWeatherLive.”
• Find dark skies – Aim for locations with Bortle class 4 or better; state parks, rural farms, and lakesides are ideal.
• Dress appropriately – Night‑time temperatures can drop below 0 °C in the Midwest; thermal layers, insulated gloves, and a hat are essential.
• Camera settings –

1. Manual mode, ISO 1600–3200
2. Aperture f/2.8–f/4
3. Exposure 10–20 seconds (adjust for aurora speed)
4. Use a sturdy tripod and remote shutter.
5. Safety first – Stay away from power lines and large metal structures that could attract induced currents during the storm.

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Real‑World example: The 2003 “Halloween” Storm

• Kp index: Reached 9 (storm‑level).
• aurora visibility: Extended to northern Ohio and western Pennsylvania—roughly the same latitude range forecast for the 2026 event.
• Impact: several satellite anomalies recorded; minor power fluctuations in the Upper Midwest.
• Lesson: Even with a strong forecast, cloud cover was the biggest limiting factor. Monitoring local weather remains crucial.

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How to Monitor the Storm’s Progression

• NOAA SWPC website – Live Kp index, A‑index, and CME arrival estimates.
• NASA’s DSCOVR spacecraft – Provides real‑time solar wind measurements at L1.
• Spaceweather.com – Offers a user‑pleasant aurora map and alerts via email or SMS.
• Local weather services – pair aurora forecasts with cloud‑cover predictions (e.g., National Weather Service Radar).

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Preparing for Potential Disruptions

Sector	Recommended Action
Power utilities	Activate GIC monitoring; standby generators for critical infrastructure.
Aviation	File NOTAMs for HF communication loss; adjust flight routes over affected latitudes.
Maritime	Notify vessels operating in high‑latitude waters of possible GPS degradation.
Public	Encourage residents to keep rechargeable batteries and avoid reliance on GPS navigation during the peak window.

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Rapid Reference: Aurora Visibility Checklist (for the 2026 Storm)

• verify Kp ≥ 7 forecast on NOAA’s real‑time map.
• Confirm clear skies with a local weather app (≤ 20 % cloud cover).
• Choose a dark‑sky location at least 30 km from major city lights.
• Pack warm clothing, snacks, and a fully charged camera battery.
• Set up equipment 30 minutes before predicted peak to allow acclimation.

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