Global ‘Elevator Cliff’ Looms: Aging Infrastructure Threatens Cities & Real Estate
Washington D.C. – A silent crisis is escalating in cities around the world: the widespread failure of aging elevators. From New York skyscrapers to London towers, and now with growing concern in Korea, a phenomenon dubbed the ‘elevator cliff’ is paralyzing buildings, disrupting lives, and sending ripples through the global real estate market. This is breaking news with potentially far-reaching consequences, and Archyde is on the ground with the latest.
The Zombie Elevators: A Quarter Century of Service
According to recent reports from the Financial Times and Axios, a significant portion of elevators in major cities are now classified as ‘legacy equipment’ – meaning they’ve surpassed their 20-25 year design lifespan. These “zombie elevators,” as some are calling them, are increasingly prone to breakdowns, causing major inconveniences and, in some cases, safety concerns. Valerie Niemietz, a resident of a 57-story luxury building in New York City, recently found herself climbing 53 flights of stairs with her dog during a heavy rainstorm after the elevators failed. Similar incidents are being reported in London and across Europe.
Beyond Inconvenience: A Real Estate Risk
The problem isn’t just about a frustrating walk up the stairs. The ‘elevator cliff’ is beginning to impact real estate valuations. Buildings with unreliable elevators are facing what’s being called an ‘accessibility discount’ – a reduction in value due to the risk of outages. Unexpected, massive capital expenditures for modernization – potentially hundreds of millions of won per elevator – are undermining the dividend capacity of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Investors are starting to prioritize the reliability of a building’s “invisible infrastructure” over purely aesthetic features.
Supply Chain Snarls & a Skilled Labor Shortage
What’s driving this crisis? A perfect storm of factors. Firstly, the sheer age of the equipment. Amy Blankenviller, Executive Director of the National Elevator Industry Association (NEII), compares relying on a 30+ year old elevator to driving a car from the 1980s daily for another decade. Secondly, a global supply chain imbalance. Parts suppliers are prioritizing the booming new construction market in China, leaving North America and Europe struggling to find replacement components for older models. Stephen Smith, director of the North American Architecture Center, notes that obtaining a single part can now necessitate replacing an entire system.
Adding to the challenge is a critical shortage of skilled technicians. The retirement of baby boomer engineers isn’t being offset by an influx of new talent, despite lucrative salaries – the median annual wage for elevator installers and repairers is currently $106,580, with top earners exceeding $133,370. The demanding nature of the work and the barriers to apprenticeship training are hindering recruitment.
Opportunity for Elevator Giants
While the ‘elevator cliff’ presents challenges, it’s also creating opportunities for major elevator manufacturers like Otis, KONE, Schindler, and TKE Elevator. With new installation growth slowing due to the Chinese real estate slowdown, these companies are pivoting to focus on the lucrative modernization and maintenance markets. Otis, the world’s leading elevator company, reported a 27% surge in modernization orders in the third quarter of 2025, signaling a clear shift in industry priorities.
Korea on the Brink: A Particularly Acute Risk
The situation is particularly concerning in Korea, where high-density apartment living means a greater reliance on elevators per capita than almost anywhere else in the world. As of December 31, 2024, Korea boasts 866,669 elevators, with approximately 30% – over 258,700 – exceeding 15 years of age. Experts warn that elevators installed during the construction booms of the 1990s and early 2000s are entering a mass replacement cycle starting in 2025-2026. The lack of sufficient long-term repair reserves in many apartment complexes raises the specter of resident conflicts, soaring maintenance fees, and potential safety hazards.
This isn’t just a future problem; it’s a leading indicator of a potential crisis. While widespread floor rent reversals haven’t been statistically confirmed yet, market experts are urging caution. The reliability of vertical transportation is rapidly becoming a key factor in property value and urban livability. Staying ahead of the ‘elevator cliff’ will require proactive investment, strategic planning, and a renewed focus on maintaining the essential infrastructure that keeps our cities moving.
Stay tuned to Archyde for ongoing coverage of this developing story and in-depth analysis of the global infrastructure challenges shaping our world.
