Venezuela’s Precarious Future: Beyond Maduro, Between Great Powers
The seizure of Nicolás Maduro and his relocation to New York for narco-trafficking charges wasn’t a regime change – it was a high-stakes gamble. While the Trump administration insists it doesn’t anticipate further military intervention in Venezuela, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s recent testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee revealed a critical truth: the option remains on the table. This isn’t simply about Venezuela; it’s a microcosm of a rapidly shifting global order, where the U.S. is simultaneously confronting China, Russia, and Iran, often with strained relationships with traditional allies.
The Illusion of Transition: Delcy Rodríguez and the Limits of Change
The current focus on Acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s willingness to open Venezuela’s energy sector to American companies feels less like a diplomatic breakthrough and more like a desperate attempt to stabilize a collapsing economy. While preferential access for U.S. firms and a commitment to purchasing American goods are positive steps, the underlying power structure remains firmly in place. As Senator Jeanne Shaheen pointed out, “We’ve traded one dictator for another.” Rodríguez’s alleged ties to drug and gold smuggling networks, documented by the Associated Press, further erode trust and raise questions about the true nature of this “transition.”
A Hemisphere Under Pressure: Iran, China, and Russia’s Expanding Influence
Venezuela isn’t operating in a vacuum. The growing strategic presence of Iran in the Western Hemisphere is a significant concern for U.S. military leaders, with fears of ballistic missile capabilities and drone technology falling into the wrong hands. Rubio’s warning about eliminating an Iranian drone factory highlights the escalating tensions. However, Iran is just one piece of the puzzle. Venezuela remains heavily indebted to China, with over $100 billion in loans secured through oil-for-loans agreements – a relationship that provides Beijing with significant leverage. Russia’s continued support for the Maduro regime, and its own strategic interests in the region, further complicate the situation. This multi-polar dynamic is a key factor in understanding the limited options available to the U.S.
The China Factor: Trade Surpluses and Eroding Alliances
The U.S. strategy of tariffs, intended to curb China’s economic power, appears to be backfiring. Despite the Trump administration’s efforts, China posted a record global trade surplus in 2025, while U.S. manufacturing employment has declined. This economic reality is driving a wedge between the U.S. and its allies. Canada’s recent trade deal with China, cited by senators during Rubio’s testimony, demonstrates a growing skepticism about the reliability of the United States as a partner. The U.S. is finding itself increasingly isolated, even as it attempts to project strength abroad.
The War Powers Debate: A Constitutional Gray Area
The operation to capture Maduro has reignited the debate over presidential authority and congressional oversight. Senator Rand Paul rightly questioned whether the U.S. actions constituted an act of war, given the scale of the intervention. The dismissal of a War Powers resolution, based on informal assurances from the administration regarding future consultations, is a troubling precedent. While Rubio downplayed the need for further action, the lack of clear congressional authorization raises serious constitutional concerns. The War Powers Act, designed to prevent unilateral military action, is being tested, and its effectiveness is increasingly in doubt. The Council on Foreign Relations provides a detailed overview of the War Powers Resolution.
The Path Forward: Elections, Ideology, and the Limits of U.S. Influence
Rubio acknowledged the challenges of achieving a “friendly, stable, prosperous Venezuela,” emphasizing that free and fair elections are crucial but not easily attainable. The persistence of Chavista ideology, even among those disillusioned with Maduro, suggests that a complete overhaul of the political landscape is unlikely. The administration’s reliance on Rodríguez to stabilize the country is a calculated risk, given her alleged criminal ties and the continued imprisonment of political prisoners. The reality on the ground is difficult, and the U.S. has limited leverage to force meaningful change.
Ultimately, the situation in Venezuela highlights the limitations of U.S. power in a multipolar world. Military intervention carries significant risks and may not achieve the desired outcome. A more nuanced approach, focused on diplomatic engagement, economic assistance, and support for civil society, may be more effective in the long run. However, even with such an approach, the path to a stable and democratic Venezuela remains fraught with challenges. What role will regional actors like Brazil and Colombia play in shaping Venezuela’s future? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
