BYU Basketball’s Defensive Slide: Can KenPom’s Predictions Salvage the Season?
Four consecutive losses have thrown BYU basketball’s promising season into uncertainty. While a 25-win campaign remains statistically possible, the Cougars’ recent defensive struggles are a major red flag. KenPom, the industry-leading college basketball analytics source, now gives BYU just a 55% chance to win Saturday’s crucial matchup against Baylor, a game that could define the trajectory of their season.
The Defensive Collapse and KenPom’s Assessment
BYU’s fall from grace hasn’t been subtle. Before the current losing streak, their defense ranked within the top 15 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Now, they’ve plummeted to 49th, a stark indicator of the issues plaguing the team. This defensive decline coincides with a drop in KenPom rankings, now sitting at 22nd overall. Despite maintaining a strong offensive presence – currently ranked 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency – a porous defense is proving fatal in close contests.
KenPom’s predictive model forecasts a tight game against Baylor (83-81 in favor of BYU), but the 55% win probability highlights the vulnerability. Baylor, ranked 44th in KenPom, boasts a 30th-ranked offense and a comparatively weaker defense at 89th. This offensive firepower presents a significant challenge for a BYU team struggling to contain opponents.
Looking Ahead: A Challenging Schedule According to KenPom
The road doesn’t get any easier for Kevin Young’s squad. KenPom’s game-by-game predictions paint a challenging picture for the remainder of BYU’s schedule:
- @ Baylor: 55% (BYU win probability)
- vs Colorado: 89%
- @ Arizona: 12%
- vs Iowa State: 44%
- vs UCF: 83%
- @ West Virginia: 61%
- @ Cincinnati: 64%
- vs Texas Tech: 63%
KenPom projects a 4.7-3.3 record over these final eight games, resulting in a projected overall record of 21.7-9.3. While reaching 22 wins is still probable (57.7% chance), the path to 23 or 24 wins becomes increasingly narrow (26.7% and 6.6% respectively). A 25-win season, once a realistic goal, is now a long shot (0.5% chance).
Beyond Win Totals: The Bigger Picture for BYU
The focus has shifted from chasing a high seed in the NCAA Tournament to simply improving performance. As BYU’s head coach Kevin Young has emphasized, fixing the defensive issues is paramount. A stronger defensive showing will not only improve their win-loss record but also bolster their tournament resume.
Currently, Arizona is heavily favored to win the Big 12 (71% chance according to ESPN BPI), followed by Houston (47%). BYU’s odds are considerably lower, highlighting the uphill battle they face.
The Importance of Defensive Rebound and Guard Play
Analyzing the BYU vs. Baylor matchup, efficient guard play and rebounding will be critical. Both teams possess high-scoring backcourts and are above-average rebounding teams. The team that controls the boards and limits turnovers will likely emerge victorious. This game, and the subsequent contests on BYU’s schedule, will serve as a crucial test of their resilience and ability to adapt.
What will it take for BYU to turn their season around? The answer lies in a renewed commitment to defensive fundamentals and a consistent effort to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities. The Cougars have the offensive firepower to compete with anyone, but without a reliable defense, their postseason aspirations will remain out of reach.
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