The Rapid Rise and Fall of Highguard: A Warning for the Future of Live Service Games
Just two weeks after launch, Wildlight Entertainment, the studio behind the new hero shooter Highguard, reportedly laid off the majority of its team. While the game initially saw a peak of 97,249 concurrent players on Steam, that number plummeted to just 4,524 within a fortnight. This dramatic drop, coupled with the swift staff reductions, isn’t just a story about one game. it’s a stark illustration of the increasingly precarious landscape for live service titles and a potential harbinger of more turbulence to come.
The Allure and Peril of the “Shadow Drop”
Highguard’s launch strategy was ambitious, to say the least. Wildlight Entertainment opted for a “shadow drop” – revealing the game at The Game Awards in December 2025 and releasing it almost immediately, with minimal pre-launch marketing. The idea, according to the studio, was to “let the game speak for itself.” This approach, while potentially effective for established franchises, carries significant risk for new IPs. Without a robust marketing campaign to build awareness and manage expectations, a game relies entirely on word-of-mouth and initial player reception. In Highguard’s case, that initial buzz wasn’t sustainable.
The Live Service Model: A High-Wire Act
The live service model, popularized by titles like Fortnite and Apex Legends, demands constant content updates, community engagement, and ongoing development. It’s a commitment that extends far beyond the initial release. The success of these games isn’t just about a compelling core gameplay loop; it’s about maintaining that loop with a steady stream of new features, events, and cosmetic items. This requires a substantial and dedicated team, and, crucially, a consistent revenue stream to justify the ongoing investment. The layoffs at Wildlight suggest that Highguard failed to achieve the necessary player retention and monetization to support its long-term development goals.
The Cost of Content and Community
Developing and maintaining a live service game is expensive. Beyond the initial development costs, studios must allocate resources to server maintenance, customer support, content creation, and community management. Alex Graner, a former senior level designer at Wildlight, lamented on LinkedIn that “there was a lot of unreleased content I was really looking forward to that I and others designed for Highguard.” This unreleased content likely represents a significant sunk cost, highlighting the financial strain the game’s underperformance placed on the studio.
Key Takeaway: The live service model isn’t just about building a game; it’s about building a sustainable ecosystem. Without a clear path to profitability, even promising titles can quickly falter.
The Shifting Sands of Player Engagement
The gaming landscape is notoriously fickle. Players have more choices than ever before, and their attention spans are increasingly fragmented. Highguard’s initial peak on Steam demonstrates the potential for rapid adoption, but the subsequent decline underscores the difficulty of maintaining that momentum. The game’s developers even implemented a 5v5 mode shortly after launch in response to player feedback regarding the small scale of the original 3v3 format, demonstrating a willingness to adapt, but it wasn’t enough to stem the tide.
“Highguard debuted in the top 10 in weekly active users on US Steam, was top 20 on both US PlayStation and Xbox,” noted Mat Piscatella from Circana, highlighting the initial traction. However, that traction didn’t translate into sustained engagement. This raises a critical question: what factors contribute to long-term player retention in the crowded live service market?
What Does This Mean for the Future?
The situation at Wildlight Entertainment serves as a cautionary tale for other studios venturing into the live service space. Here are a few key trends to watch:
- Increased Scrutiny of Launch Strategies: The “shadow drop” approach may become less common, particularly for new IPs. Studios may prioritize more traditional marketing campaigns to build awareness and manage expectations.
- Emphasis on Player Retention Metrics: Studios will likely place greater emphasis on tracking and analyzing player retention metrics from day one. Early warning signs of declining engagement will be crucial for making timely adjustments.
- The Rise of “Sustainable” Live Service: We may see a shift towards live service games that are designed for long-term sustainability, with a focus on core gameplay loops that are inherently engaging and less reliant on constant content updates.
- Consolidation and Acquisition: Smaller studios may struggle to compete in the live service market, leading to increased consolidation and acquisition by larger publishers.
Did you know that the average lifespan of a free-to-play game is just 18 months? This statistic underscores the immense pressure on developers to continually innovate and engage their player base.
The Importance of Realistic Expectations
The industry needs to move away from the expectation that every new live service game will become the next Fortnite. Realistic expectations, coupled with a well-defined monetization strategy and a commitment to long-term development, are essential for success.
Expert Insight: “The live service model is incredibly challenging,” says industry analyst Daniel Ahmad. “It requires a significant investment of time and resources, and there’s no guarantee of success. Studios need to be prepared to adapt and iterate quickly, and they need to have a clear understanding of their target audience.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What caused Highguard to fail?
A: A combination of factors likely contributed, including a lack of pre-launch marketing, a competitive market, and potentially insufficient player retention and monetization.
Q: Is the live service model dying?
A: No, but it is evolving. Studios are learning that simply releasing a game isn’t enough; they need to build a sustainable ecosystem and continually engage their player base.
Q: What can other studios learn from Highguard’s experience?
A: The importance of realistic expectations, robust marketing, and a long-term commitment to development and community engagement.
Q: Will Highguard receive further updates?
A: Wildlight Entertainment has stated they will continue to innovate on and support the game with a core group of developers, but the scope of future updates remains uncertain.
The story of Highguard is a reminder that even with a talented team and a promising concept, success in the live service market is far from guaranteed. The industry is entering a new era of increased scrutiny and heightened competition, and only the most adaptable and sustainable games will thrive. What are your predictions for the future of live service games? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
