STEPHENVILLE, Texas – The Tarleton State Texans (12-13, 3-9 WAC) aim to break a three-game home losing streak when they host the Abilene Christian Wildcats (12-13, 4-8 WAC) Monday night at Wisdom Gym. The Western Athletic Conference matchup is scheduled for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off and will be broadcast on ESPN+. The Texans are currently favored by 1.5 points, with moneyline odds of -125, and the over/under is set at 133.5 points, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Both teams enter the contest with identical overall records, but their recent form differs. Abilene Christian has secured back-to-back wins against UT Arlington and Tarleton State, while the Texans are looking to rebound from a 14-point loss at Abilene Christian on Saturday. This marks the third and final regular season meeting between the two programs.
The series history favors Tarleton State, holding a 29-8 all-time record against Abilene Christian, including a dominant 16-2 mark at home. However, the Wildcats have been competitive in recent years, winning seven of the last 23 games since 2020. Notably, none of the past 23 contests between these two teams have been decided by more than three points, suggesting a closely contested affair is likely.
A key factor in this matchup is the status of Tarleton State guard Dior Johnson, who leads the team with 23.6 points per game on impressive .547/.564/.852 shooting splits. Johnson has been sidelined since January 21 with an undisclosed injury, and his absence significantly impacts the Texans’ offensive capabilities. Despite Johnson’s injury, Tarleton State managed a road win against Southern Utah on February 7.
Wildcats Rely on Hubbard, Defensive Pressure
Abilene Christian’s offense is spearheaded by former JUCO forward Bradyn Hubbard, who averages 15.8 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. Guard Rich Smith contributes 9.5 points and a team-best 4.5 assists, while Cbo Newton adds 9.2 points, having scored 15 against Tarleton State in their previous encounter. The Wildcats excel at forcing turnovers, ranking 10th nationally in that category, and limiting opponents’ shot attempts. However, they struggle on the defensive boards, ranking near the bottom of the country in that statistic, and commit a high number of fouls.
According to KenPom ratings, Abilene Christian is ranked No. 232 with an adjusted offensive rating of No. 303 and an adjusted defensive rating of No. 139. Their NET ranking is No. 201, with a 0-2 record against Quad 1 opponents, 0-3 against Quad 2, 3-6 against Quad 3, and 6-2 against Quad 4. Monday’s game at Tarleton State is classified as a Quad 3 matchup.
Texans Look to Control Tempo at Home
While the Texans suffered losses against SMU, LSU, Baylor, and Cincinnati in non-conference play, they secured a 16-point victory over Rice and won eight other pre-WAC games. Cam McDowell, averaging 13.9 points per game and shooting 87.8% from the free-throw line, is a key contributor for Tarleton State. Sixth-year forward Freddy Hicks adds 9.7 points and 5.7 rebounds, while Chris Mpaka contributes 8.1 points and 5.3 rebounds. The Texans have utilized a deep roster this season, with 18 different players seeing court time, but have been hampered by injuries to several key players.
Tarleton State boasts the second-highest steal rate in the nation, forcing opponents into a league-leading number of turnovers. They also perform well at the free-throw line, ranking in the top 70 in attempts, makes, and percentage. However, they are second-to-last in the country in three-point attempts. KenPom ranks the Texans No. 270 on offense, No. 135 on defense, and No. 211 overall. Their NET ranking is No. 214, with a 0-4 record against Quad 1 opponents, 0-1 against Quad 2, 2-6 against Quad 3, and 6-2 against Quad 4. This game against Abilene Christian is considered a Quad 4 matchup.
Expert Prediction: Texans to Cover
According to a model by Bart Torvik, Tarleton State is projected to win by 6.2 points. Considering the 1.5-point spread, analysts suggest there is value in backing the Texans. Despite Dior Johnson’s injury, Tarleton State’s overall metrics – including superior rankings in NET, KenPom, and adjusted offensive and defensive ratings – position them favorably. The Texans have also consistently won by at least three points in their 12 victories this season. Tarleton State’s ability to control the tempo on their home court, coupled with their historical dominance in the series (29-8 16-2 at home), further supports a pick for the spread.
Best Bet: Tarleton State -1.5 (-112)
Looking Ahead
This matchup is crucial for both teams as they navigate the remainder of the WAC schedule. A win for Tarleton State would not only halt their home losing streak but also potentially boost their standing in the conference standings. For Abilene Christian, a victory would continue their recent momentum and solidify their position in the top half of the league. The outcome of this game will undoubtedly have implications for the upcoming WAC tournament.
What are your thoughts on this matchup? Share your predictions and insights in the comments below!
