If you live in the East, you might be enjoying a welcome thaw this week, while here in the West, we find ourselves facing an unfolding catastrophe. In Colorado, the winter season has been alarmingly warm and dry, with last December recorded as the warmest in history. It was 8.9 degrees warmer than the average from 1991 to 2020 and the warmest since record-keeping began in the late 19th century. This past weekend, families in Colorado Springs were out walking in T-shirts and shorts, experiencing temperatures in the mid-60s, while Denver set a new record high of 68 degrees on February 15.
But it isn’t just the unseasonably high temperatures that signal trouble; the state is grappling with one of the lowest snowpacks ever recorded. This lack of snow means that rivers originating in the mountains, which supply water to farms and reservoirs as far as Los Angeles, will be critically low. Although snow is forecasted to arrive in the mountains this week, it may not be enough to avert what could be one of the worst water years in modern history. Colorado is currently in the grip of the most severe drought experienced in 1,200 years, as noted by Senator John Hickenlooper.
“The snowpack is pretty much as large as all of our reservoirs combined. That’s why winters like this one are so terrifying,” Hickenlooper explained. The ramifications of this drought could lead to economic disaster, with ski resorts already feeling the financial pinch. If significant snowfall doesn’t materialize soon, the state’s environment and economy could suffer substantial consequences.
Unprecedented Conditions
Russ Schumacher, the state climatologist, stated, “It’s as bad as you believe It’s.” The ongoing drought coupled with a snow drought has resulted in the amount of water stored in the snowpack being at its lowest since comprehensive measurements began in 1987. The current water year is already the third-worst on record, with snowpack levels around 58 percent of the median and even lower in some areas.
Climatologists have identified a weak La Niña pattern in the Pacific as a contributing factor, leading to a high-pressure system that pushes moisture away from the mountains. This lack of snow is also causing a feedback loop, resulting in higher-than-normal temperatures in the mountains. Although there is hope that the weather pattern may change this week, climatologist Allie Mazurek cautioned that it is looking increasingly unlikely that the state will return to an average snowpack.
Impact on Water Resources
The snowpack is critical as it forms the headwaters for major rivers, including the Colorado, Rio Grande, and Arkansas. These rivers feed into the largest reservoirs in the United States: Lake Powell and Lake Mead, both of which are critically low. Currently, Lake Powell is about 25 percent full, and Lake Mead is at 34 percent. Water managers are concerned about reaching a “dead pool” scenario, where the water level would drop too low to allow for hydroelectric power generation at Glen Canyon Dam.
In the upper Colorado River basin, which includes Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Wyoming, water is often diverted from streams and irrigation ditches. This year, many rivers may run dry or offer significantly reduced flow. “This year, there just isn’t going to be any water in these rivers. Or there will be water, but instead of 12 weeks or 16 weeks of water, it will be four weeks of water,” Udall explained. The implications for agriculture, recreation, and ecosystems are dire.
Political Complications
The situation is further complicated by the ongoing negotiations regarding the Colorado River Compact, which regulates water distribution among seven states, the federal Bureau of Reclamation, tribal nations, and Mexico. A major deadline was missed on February 14, which means that the Bureau will now impose its plan, likely to be met with discontent from state leaders.
Concerns have emerged regarding potential biases in water distribution, particularly under the current administration. Some residents worry that decisions may favor states that supported the administration in the last election. In December, the administration vetoed funding for a pipeline that would have provided water to rural southeastern Colorado, intensifying fears of inequitable water management.
As the West braces for a challenging summer, hydrologists and climate scientists are preparing for the worst. The consequences of reduced water flow will reverberate through agriculture, recreation, and mountain ecosystems. The effects will be felt acutely in the coming months, as trees have begun to bud six weeks too early due to the warm conditions. Residents are left to worry about how to ensure their trees survive and to prepare for potential wildfires, as winter fire watches become alarmingly common.
With all eyes on the forecast, it remains to be seen whether the anticipated snowfall will arrive in time to alleviate the dire situation. The urgency for action is palpable, as the communities in the West navigate the realities of climate change and its impacts on their environment and economy. As the situation evolves, public discourse around water management and environmental policy will likely intensify.
We invite readers to share their thoughts and experiences regarding this pressing issue in the comments below.
