The world is entering its most dangerous period since 1945, according to prominent U.S. Historian Robert Kagan, as the United States under the current administration appears to be dismantling the international order it built over eight decades. Kagan warns that the shift isn’t due to a lack of capacity, but a deliberate choice to abandon its role as a global security provider, leading to a future defined by escalating competition and conflict. This assessment comes amid growing concerns about the domestic situation within the U.S., including recent events involving the use of force by ICE agents.
Kagan’s analysis, detailed in recent interviews and writings, paints a stark picture of a nation potentially succumbing to authoritarianism with surprisingly little opposition. He suggests that the current trajectory represents a fundamental break from the post-World War II era, returning the world to a state of affairs reminiscent of the period before 1945 – characterized by multiple great powers vying for influence and a lack of reliable alliances. The historian’s warnings about the potential for a new world disorder are gaining traction as the U.S. Navigates a complex geopolitical landscape and internal political divisions.
ICE Actions and Domestic Concerns
Recent events, specifically the killing of U.S. Citizens by ICE militia in Minneapolis, have amplified concerns about the direction of the country. Kagan expressed surprise at the level of military brutality witnessed in American streets, admitting he hadn’t fully anticipated such a scenario. He noted a disturbing pattern of complacency among Americans, with some actively supporting the changes, others in denial, and still others believing the situation won’t escalate further. This lack of widespread resistance is what Kagan finds most alarming, echoing his earlier warnings about the subtle creep of fascism. He wrote almost a decade ago that fascism wouldn’t arrive with overt displays of force, “but with a television huckster, a phony billionaire, a textbook egomaniac.”
The situation in Minneapolis, while shocking to many, appears to be part of a broader trend. In October 2025, border control agents were documented confronting demonstrators in Portland, Oregon, as reported by Reuters.
A Shift in U.S. Foreign Policy
Kagan’s assessment aligns with a broader shift in U.S. National security strategy, as outlined in recent policy documents. The Trump administration has signaled a move away from providing global security, opting instead to focus on defending its own interests, even if it means disrupting the existing international order. This change, as detailed in an article in The Atlantic, means that access to resources, markets, and strategic bases will no longer be guaranteed through alliances but will require to be actively contested and defended. This will likely necessitate increased military spending, as the U.S. Will be forced to rely solely on its own strength.
This new approach represents a significant departure from the past 80 years, during which the U.S. Played a dominant role in shaping a liberal international order. For decades, the U.S. Benefited from the cooperation of allies in Europe and Asia, and challengers to the order were constrained by the combined economic and military power of the U.S. And its partners. Now, Kagan argues, the U.S. Is entering a world where it will have few reliable friends and will face increasing competition from other major powers.
Preparing for a More Dangerous World
Kagan believes Americans are ill-prepared for this new reality, both materially and psychologically. The country has grown accustomed to a world where its dominance was largely unchallenged, and the prospect of a more competitive and conflict-ridden future is unsettling. He suggests that the relative peace enjoyed during the Cold War and the post-Cold War era has lulled Americans into a false sense of security. The current situation, he contends, is far more dangerous than the Cold War, and requires a fundamental reassessment of U.S. Foreign policy and national security priorities.
The historian’s warnings are echoed by others in the foreign policy community. A short video on YouTube highlights Kagan’s point that normal geopolitics now resembles the world before 1945. This shift necessitates a reevaluation of long-held assumptions about international relations and a willingness to confront a more uncertain and dangerous future.
As the U.S. Navigates this evolving landscape, the implications for global stability are profound. The dismantling of the liberal international order could lead to increased regional conflicts, a resurgence of great power competition, and a decline in international cooperation. The next few years will be critical in determining whether the U.S. Can adapt to this new reality and avoid a descent into a more dangerous and unstable world.
What remains to be seen is whether the American public will heed Kagan’s warnings and demand a change in course. The coming months will likely reveal whether the current trajectory is sustainable or if a course correction is possible. Share your thoughts in the comments below.
