The future of work is a subject of intense debate, particularly as artificial intelligence rapidly integrates into businesses across the globe. A latest study from the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reveals a significant disconnect between how executives and employees perceive AI’s impact on employment. Even as company leaders anticipate potential job cuts, workers largely believe AI will lead to increased opportunities.
The NBER study, titled “Firm data on AI,” surveyed 6,000 firms across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Australia. The findings highlight a cautious outlook from those in leadership positions, contrasted with a more optimistic view from the workforce. This divergence in expectations underscores the uncertainty surrounding the long-term effects of AI adoption.
Over 80% of executives surveyed reported that AI had no discernible impact on either employment levels or productivity over the past three years. Yet, expectations shift dramatically when looking ahead. Executives forecast that AI will boost productivity by 1.4% and increase output by 0.8% over the next three years, but also predict a corresponding decrease in employment of 0.7% [1]. This anticipated job reduction, if realized across the surveyed countries, could equate to approximately 1.75 million fewer jobs by 2028, given a workforce of over 250 million [5].
This pessimistic outlook from management stands in stark contrast to the views of employees. The NBER study found that workers, on average, expect AI to increase employment by 0.5% over the same three-year period. This difference in perception suggests a fundamental gap in understanding how AI will reshape job roles and responsibilities.
Current AI Adoption Remains Limited
Despite the widespread discussion surrounding AI, current adoption rates remain relatively low. The NBER study indicates that, on average, AI is being used for just 1.5 hours per week across the surveyed firms [4]. Approximately 25% of respondents reported that AI is not being used in their workplace at all [5]. This suggests that while companies are exploring AI’s potential, widespread implementation is still in its early stages.
The most common applications of AI currently center around text generation using large language models, followed by visual content creation and data processing through machine learning [3]. These applications are primarily focused on automating tasks and improving efficiency, which may explain the executive concerns about potential job displacement.
A Rapid Pace of Adoption, But Limited Immediate Impact
Interestingly, a separate NBER working paper published in September 2024 found that the adoption of generative AI is happening at a rate comparable to the personal computer and faster than the internet [1]. As of late 2024, nearly 40% of the U.S. Population aged 18-64 was using generative AI, with 23% of employed respondents using it for work at least once a week and 9% using it daily [1]. Between 1 and 5 percent of all work hours are currently assisted by generative AI, resulting in reported time savings equivalent to 1.4 percent of total work hours [1].
What’s Next for AI and the Workforce?
The NBER study underscores the complex and evolving relationship between AI and the labor market. While current adoption rates are relatively low and immediate impacts on employment have been minimal, executives anticipate significant changes in the coming years. The contrasting views of executives and employees highlight the necessitate for open communication and proactive planning to navigate the transition. Further research is needed to understand how AI will reshape job roles, skill requirements, and the overall structure of the workforce.
The debate over AI’s impact on jobs is far from settled. As the technology continues to develop and become more integrated into various industries, ongoing monitoring and analysis will be crucial to inform policy decisions and ensure a smooth transition for workers. Share your thoughts on the future of work in the comments below.
