Islamabad finds itself in an increasingly precarious position as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran threaten regional stability. Pakistan, already grappling with internal security challenges and strained relationships with its neighbors, must now prepare for the potential fallout of a conflict it cannot afford. The situation is particularly complex given Pakistan’s delicate balancing act between maintaining ties with both Washington and Tehran.
For decades, Pakistan has navigated a volatile neighborhood, struggling to maintain working relationships with both its eastern and western neighbors. While enduring persistent political tensions with India, its relations with Afghanistan and Iran have also been fraught with difficulty. Cross-border terrorism originating in Afghanistan has led to a deterioration in bilateral ties and a prolonged border closure. Relations with Iran, though stabilized after a high point of tension in 2024 when both countries launched strikes against militant groups within each other’s borders, remain uneasy due to ongoing border security concerns, as reported by Arab News.
Historical Context of Pakistan-Iran Relations
Prior to 1979, Pakistan and Iran enjoyed a period of trust and close ties between their respective governments. Although, the Iranian Revolution fundamentally altered the dynamic, as the two nations came under the influence of differing ideologies and pursued divergent strategic interests. The politicization of sectarian identities within Pakistan further complicated the bilateral relationship. Adding to these challenges, both countries have accused each other of harboring Baloch insurgent groups responsible for attacks on security forces, particularly along the Baloch frontier. The Syrian civil war and reports of Iranian recruitment of Pakistani citizens to fight in Syria also strained relations.
Despite these difficulties, both countries have maintained channels of communication, with increased engagement between their security establishments over the past decade aimed at improving coordination and reducing distrust.
The Current Crisis and Pakistan’s Concerns
Recent protests in Iran, coupled with a forceful crackdown by Iranian authorities and a subsequent increase in US military presence in the region, have created a novel layer of uncertainty for Pakistan. As Intelligence Online reported on February 20, 2026, both Iran and the US have invited Pakistan to participate in talks, highlighting its growing influence in the region. Pakistan’s Foreign Office confirmed its invitation to participate in US-Iran dialogue in Oman on February 3, 2026, according to Dawn. Further demonstrating Pakistan’s increasing role, it was also invited to participate in Iran-U.S. Nuclear talks, as noted by The Diplomat on February 5, 2026.
A potential US attack on Iran poses significant risks for Pakistan. Analysts suggest such an attack could destabilize the region, potentially leading to the collapse of state authority in Iran’s peripheral regions, including the predominantly Baloch province of Sistan-Balochistan. This could embolden ethnic separatists and disrupt border security, effectively opening the border and increasing insurgent activity within Pakistan. Investment in Balochistan would likely be hampered, and Pakistan could face domestic pressure to support Iran while simultaneously attempting to prevent the recruitment of its citizens for fighting in Iran.
Preparing for Contingencies
Given these potential repercussions, Pakistani decision-makers recognize the critical importance of a successful outcome to US-Iran negotiations. However, with the continued build-up of US military assets in the region, Pakistan must simultaneously prepare for the possibility of conflict. This includes strategic wargaming and planning to mitigate the impact on border security, domestic politics, and sectarian tensions. As Umar Karim, a doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham, notes, proactive preparation is essential.
The situation demands a comprehensive assessment of potential scenarios and the development of robust contingency plans to safeguard Pakistan’s interests and stability in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.
What comes next will depend heavily on the outcome of ongoing diplomatic efforts. However, Pakistan’s proactive engagement and strategic preparation will be crucial in navigating the challenges ahead. Share your thoughts on how Pakistan can best navigate these complex regional dynamics in the comments below.
