Beijing – A planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is facing increased tension following U.S.-Israeli military action in Iran that resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The situation marks the second time in two months the U.S. Has taken military action against a key economic partner of China, following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January.
The timing of the escalating conflicts presents a complex geopolitical challenge for Xi, who is preparing to host Trump for talks focused on trade. While Beijing has publicly condemned the U.S.-led operations, its response has been measured, reflecting both limited influence over U.S. Military decisions and the transactional nature of its diplomatic relationships, according to experts. The summit, tentatively scheduled for March 31 to April 2, remains uncertain.
The U.S. Military campaign against Iran has arguably put Xi “on the back foot” ahead of the anticipated meeting, according to analysis from Reuters. Both leaders are seeking to stabilize a fragile trade truce between the world’s two largest economies, but the recent events have significantly altered the dynamics leading up to the potential talks.
Nicholas Burns, the former U.S. Ambassador to China under President Joe Biden, characterized China’s response as demonstrating it is a “feckless friend for its authoritarian allies,” a statement made on X (formerly Twitter). This assessment highlights the delicate balancing act China faces in maintaining relationships with both Washington and its strategic partners in the Middle East and Latin America.
China’s Economic Ties to Iran and Venezuela
China maintains significant economic interests in both Iran and Venezuela. Approximately 80% of Iran’s crude oil exports are destined for China, making it a crucial lifeline for the Iranian economy, which is heavily sanctioned. However, Iranian oil accounts for only about 13% of China’s total oil imports, according to NBC News, indicating China is not overly reliant on Iranian supplies. China and Iran signed a 25-year cooperation agreement in 2021, solidifying their strategic partnership. China also brokered a deal in 2023 restoring diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Similarly, China has close economic ties with Venezuela, which were disrupted by the U.S. Capture of President Maduro. Despite these disruptions, China has largely limited its response to stern statements, mirroring its approach following the raid in Caracas.
Strategic Considerations for Beijing
Experts suggest China may prioritize maintaining the upcoming summit with Trump over strongly challenging U.S. Military actions. Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Center for China and Globalization, stated he hadn’t heard of any plans to delay or derail the visit, as reported by NBC News. He added that the Iran conflict could even increase the urgency of a meeting between China, the largest trading partner in the Middle East, and the U.S., the region’s primary security partner.
Peiyu Yang, an assistant professor of Arabic studies at George Mason University, emphasized the “practical” nature of the China-Iran relationship, stating it is driven by economic interests rather than ideological alignment. This pragmatic approach suggests China is unlikely to jeopardize its economic relationship with the U.S. For the sake of defending Iran or Venezuela.
Potential Geopolitical Implications
A prolonged U.S. Military engagement in the Middle East could potentially benefit China by diverting U.S. Strategic attention away from the Indo-Pacific region, according to William Yang, a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group. This could create an opportunity for China to advance its interests in the Asia-Pacific, including potentially increasing pressure on Taiwan, the self-ruling island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. The U.S. Remains Taiwan’s main arms supplier and international backer.
a protracted conflict could deplete U.S. Munitions stockpiles, potentially weakening its deterrent capabilities in the Asia-Pacific. China could also leverage the situation to present itself as an alternative to American global leadership, particularly in the Global South, where trust in the U.S. May be eroding due to its assertive foreign policy actions, as noted by Ahmed Aboudouh of the Chatham House research institute.
China has evacuated 3,000 of its citizens from Iran and confirmed the death of one national in the recent strikes, underscoring the risks its citizens face in the region. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has criticized the U.S.-Israeli strikes as a violation of Iran’s sovereignty and international law, calling the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the “incitement of regime change” as “unacceptable.”
What to Watch Next
As the situation in Iran continues to evolve, China is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Experts believe Beijing will likely prioritize its economic interests and seek to maintain a pragmatic relationship with whoever comes to power in Tehran. The upcoming summit between Trump and Xi remains a key event to watch, as it will provide a crucial opportunity to assess the future trajectory of U.S.-China relations in light of these recent geopolitical developments.
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