Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, has drastically decreased this week as tensions escalate following attacks linked to the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. According to data analyzed by AFP from MarineTraffic, only nine large vessels – including oil tankers, cargo ships, and container carriers – transited the strait between Monday and Friday. This represents a significant drop in traffic, with several ships reportedly disabling their tracking systems for portions of their journey, a tactic often employed to obscure their movements.
The Strait of Hormuz is strategically vital, facilitating the passage of approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil and a similar proportion of liquefied natural gas. The recent disruption follows attacks on three vessels Sunday, prompting widespread concern about potential impacts on the global economy. While oil prices have surged, analysts are not yet observing widespread panic, but the situation remains volatile.
Reduced Vessel Traffic and “Dark” Vessels
Since the onset of the recent attacks, at least three oil tankers and one gas carrier have navigated the strait, while many shipping companies have suspended operations due to increased risk. Several vessels have been observed transmitting location signals only upon entering and exiting the strait, suggesting deliberate efforts to avoid detection during transit. Matt Wright, an analyst at Kpler, explained on Wednesday, “Some tankers are still crossing the strait heading east and west, but several are doing so under AIS blackouts,” referring to the Automatic Identification System used to track ships.
The increase in aggressive actions – including drone and missile attacks attributed to Iran following public threats – has raised concerns about sustained economic repercussions. The conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, and the subsequent retaliatory measures in the region, have disrupted global energy flows and increased uncertainty in international markets. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts global supply, as only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates possess alternative pipeline routes, but these are insufficient to bypass the maritime passage entirely.
The availability of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) in the Persian Gulf is rapidly diminishing. Bloomberg data indicated only nine VLCCs were visible on Thursday. Each VLCC can transport around 2 million barrels of crude oil, enough for roughly five hours of Saudi Arabia’s national production. Once these vessels are loaded, the lack of available tankers will force producers to fill onshore tanks and subsequently reduce extraction rates.
Vessels Operating Without Transponders
The assessment of vessel traffic excludes ships that navigated with their location systems completely disabled. The Danuta I, a gas carrier sanctioned by the United States, crossed the strait at dawn on Friday, while the Athina was last detected Thursday after loading oil in Bahrain and then disappearing from radar. At least five ships operated by Dynacom have transited the area since the start of the conflict, all with their transponders switched off, according to reporting by the Financial Times. The cargo ship Safeen Prestige was hit by projectiles on Tuesday while traveling east, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) organization.
Ship positions, which may be subject to signal manipulation, show eight signals recorded on March 6, and one from the previous Sunday. Vessels linked to Iran have been identified based on ownership, insurance, and previous routes. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile, with most carriers choosing to avoid the area or navigate under high-risk conditions, increasing pressure on the region’s export capacity.
Oil prices surged past 9% late Monday, and stocks temporarily fell as the war with Iran entered its third day. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was trading in the high $70s on Monday morning following the effective halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to NPR. This is a sharp rise, but remains below worst-case scenarios. Analysts have warned that prices could exceed $100 a barrel if oil trade is disrupted for a prolonged period, or if the conflict spreads to neighboring countries and damages oil infrastructure.
Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook
The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz underscores the vulnerability of global energy markets to geopolitical instability in the Middle East. The United States has indicated It’s preparing to escort ships through the waterway, with the Secretary of Energy stating on Friday that the U.S. Navy is preparing for this role, according to reporting from Arab News PK. This move comes after Iran threatened to close the strait following attacks. The situation is further complicated by reports that Saudi Arabia has shot down drones targeting an oil refinery, and Qatar Energy has reported attacks on two natural gas facilities.
The immediate impact of reduced traffic is a tightening of oil supplies and increased shipping costs. The long-term consequences will depend on the duration and intensity of the conflict, and the effectiveness of efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The coming days will be critical in determining whether the current disruption is a temporary setback or the beginning of a more prolonged crisis in global energy markets.
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