California Democrats are bracing for a potentially bruising primary election as the state party announced plans Tuesday to invest “multiple six figures” in polling to assess the viability of candidates vying to succeed outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom. The move follows a failed attempt by party chair Rusty Hicks to persuade several Democratic hopefuls to withdraw from the race, a bid intended to prevent a fractured vote that could pave the way for a Republican victory in the November general election.
Hicks released an open letter last week urging candidates deemed unlikely to win to step aside, but only former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon heeded the call. Eight other Democrats remain in the running, increasing the risk of a split vote in the June 2 primary. California’s top-two primary system advances the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party affiliation, to the general election.
“Candidates have filed, and now they’ve got the opportunity to showcase their viability, their path to win. I desire to simply ensure that everybody has information to fully understand the current state of the race,” Hicks said, emphasizing the need for clarity as the campaign intensifies. The planned series of six polls, the first of which will be released on March 24, are intended to provide “anyone and everyone” with a clear understanding of the race’s dynamics before voters begin receiving mail ballots in early May.
The possibility of a Republican winning the governorship, a scenario unseen in California for over two decades, has sparked anxiety within the Democratic party. Whereas registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans in the state, the crowded Democratic field could dilute the vote, potentially allowing Republican candidates Steve Hilton, a former conservative commentator, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco to advance to the general election. According to the Novel York Times, at least ten candidates will be on the ballot in the nonpartisan primary.
Party officials fear that a divided Democratic vote could not only lead to a Republican governor but also depress voter turnout in November, impacting down-ballot races and potentially influencing control of Congress. The Associated Press reported that Hicks’ call for candidates to withdraw prompted concerns among candidates of color, including former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, who suggested the effort unfairly targeted nonwhite candidates.
Hicks dismissed those claims, stating that the letter was not directed at any specific candidate. He added that the polling will be conducted by Evitarus, a Los Angeles-based firm that is Black- and Latino-led, and will oversample Latino, Black, and Asian American voters to ensure broader representation. The polling effort aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the race, with surveys released every seven to ten days until early May.
“We’re putting this forward to ensure everyone is armed with the information they need to clearly have an eyes-wide-open assessment of where the state of the race currently is between now and when ballots land in the mailboxes of voters,” Hicks said.
