Bitcoin is demonstrating unexpected resilience in the face of escalating geopolitical tensions and broader market uncertainty. Despite the outbreak of conflict in Iran and concerns about potential oil supply disruptions, the leading cryptocurrency has remained relatively stable, even posting gains in recent days. This performance is drawing attention from traders and analysts who are reassessing Bitcoin’s role as a potential safe haven asset.
As of Wednesday, March 11, 2026, Bitcoin was trading near $70,000, a roughly 7% increase from Sunday evening’s lows, according to market data. This stands in contrast to traditional markets, where the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have shown limited movement, and gold – typically a safe haven during times of crisis – has experienced only modest gains. Bitcoin is currently the only one of these three assets showing gains for the month of March.
The cryptocurrency is also showing signs of decoupling from its recent correlation with struggling software stocks. Over the past five days, the spot Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock (IBIT) has risen 3.75%, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has fallen 2.45%, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment.
Bitcoin’s Resilience Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
Analysts are cautiously optimistic that the cryptocurrency market may be stabilizing after months of declines. Aurelie Barthere, a leading research analyst at Nansen, noted that Bitcoin’s limited reaction to new geopolitical headlines is an encouraging signal. “The downside vulnerability of Bitcoin was relatively limited,” she said, observing that benchmarks like the Euro Stoxx Index experienced larger declines during the same period. This suggests that sellers may be less aggressive with Bitcoin than with traditional stocks.
Initial market reactions to the conflict in Iran saw a brief surge in optimism, fueled by falling oil prices and hopes for de-escalation. However, this optimism waned as the day progressed, and risk assets gave back some of their gains. Despite this, Bitcoin maintained a degree of stability, indicating a potential shift in investor perception.
Shifting Correlation with Gold
Another notable development is the changing relationship between Bitcoin and gold. Bryan Tan, a trader at the crypto trading firm Wintermute, reports that the correlation between BTC and gold has turned positive, moving from -0.49 a week ago to +0.16. Initially, during the early stages of the conflict in the Middle East, Bitcoin fell while gold rose, reflecting a classic risk-off trade. However, more recently, both assets have risen in tandem as the U.S. Dollar has weakened.
Tan suggests that investors may now view both Bitcoin and gold as beneficiaries of dollar weakness rather than opposing risk assets. “If this correlation continues to be positive, the narrative around BTC in a conflict environment shifts from ‘sell the risk investment’ to something more nuanced,” he explained.
ETF Inflows Return
The recent strength in Bitcoin may also be supported by improving inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. After peaking in October, inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs had been negative for several months. However, data from the past two weeks shows a significant improvement, particularly through consistent inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT fund, the largest of the Bitcoin ETFs. According to SoSoValue, IBIT has attracted nearly $1 billion in fresh inflows in March, reversing more than $3 billion in outflows between November and February. SoSoValue
Joe Edwards, Head of Research at Enigma, believes that a sustained recovery in ETF demand could be crucial for Bitcoin. He notes that the next phase of growth for Bitcoin likely depends on access to deeper institutional capital pools, such as ETF investors through brokerage accounts. “The ‘good news’ is that signs of the conclude of this phase are emerging,” Edwards said.
The ongoing conflict in Iran has significantly disrupted global oil supplies. According to Rapidan Energy, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the largest oil supply disruption in history, impacting approximately 20% of global supply for nine days – more than double the previous record set during the 1956 Suez Crisis. CNBC Crude oil prices initially surged above $115 per barrel, but have since eased, trading in the $77-$92 range as of Tuesday. Fox Business
Looking ahead, the continued recovery of ETF demand will be a key factor to watch. If the trend persists in the coming weeks, it could provide further support for a broader Bitcoin rally in the second quarter. The evolving geopolitical situation in Iran and its impact on global markets will also continue to influence investor sentiment towards Bitcoin and other assets.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries significant risk, and you should always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
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