Germany’s egg market is facing a critical situation, with persistent shortages and high demand exacerbated by ongoing outbreaks of avian influenza and, more recently, Newcastle disease. The challenges are impacting producers and consumers alike, and industry experts anticipate the difficulties will continue for the foreseeable future. The situation highlights the vulnerability of the food supply chain to animal disease and the increasing pressures on poultry farmers.
The availability of eggs across all retail levels remains limited, a situation described as “extraordinary” by industry insiders. Even established companies are experiencing a new reality where consistent supply is not guaranteed. Demand remains robust, regardless of farming method, with available product quickly absorbed into the market. This scarcity is not a temporary fluctuation; a fundamental shift appears to be underway.
The primary driver of the current crisis is the continued presence of avian influenza, with new positive cases being reported regularly. According to the Friedrich Loeffler Institute, Germany has registered 18 cases in laying hens during the winter of 2024/25, affecting the states of Lower Saxony, Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Schleswig-Holstein [1]. However, the impact extends far beyond Germany’s borders. The United States egg market was particularly hard hit in 2024 by massive avian influenza outbreaks [1].
Newcastle Disease Adds to the Pressure
Compounding the challenges posed by avian influenza, Newcastle disease (ND) has re-emerged in Germany after approximately 30 years. This highly contagious viral disease affects birds and can cause significant economic losses. The recent confirmation of ND in commercial poultry has raised serious concerns throughout the German poultry industry. More than 1 million laying hens have already been culled due to the Newcastle Disease [3]. Strict preventative measures are now crucial to protect remaining flocks.
The combination of these two diseases is creating a perfect storm for egg producers. Wim Thomassen of the Union of Poultry Producers (UPP) and Biomer Egg, notes that a “structural shortage of eggs” is driving market stability at high price levels [2]. Globally, avian influenza has been detected in poultry in 50 countries between October 2022 and September 2023, resulting in 1,971 outbreaks – a record high [2]. From October 2023 to February 2025, another 949 cases were reported, with 121 outbreaks in March 2025 alone causing over 11 million poultry deaths, including 2.3 million in Europe [2].
Declining Hen Populations Contribute to Scarcity
Beyond disease outbreaks, a reduction in laying hen populations is further tightening the supply. The Dutch laying hen population has decreased from 35 million in 2017 to 31 million in 2024, and is projected to fall to 26 million by the complete of the year, representing a decline of over 25% in nine years [2]. Similar reductions are occurring in Belgium, driven by stringent nitrogen regulations. Germany has also seen a decline in its laying hen numbers.
Consumer demand is also playing a role. The per capita consumption of eggs in Germany rose to 244 eggs per year in the last year, an increase of eight eggs [3]. This increase in demand, coupled with reduced supply, is putting significant pressure on the market, with some retailers even considering rationing [3].
The situation is expected to remain volatile. Industry stakeholders emphasize the need for understanding from consumers as the market navigates these challenges. The future development of the egg market remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: all available eggs are needed to meet current demand.
Disclaimer: This article provides informational content about market conditions and is not intended as professional advice regarding food security or agricultural practices.
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