Southern Lebanon is bracing for a potential prolonged Israeli occupation as ground operations expand, raising fears among hundreds of thousands of displaced residents. The escalation follows a recent warning from Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, drawing parallels to the Gaza Strip, that Lebanese civilians forced from their homes will not be permitted to return until the safety of Israelis near the border is guaranteed.
Katz’s remarks, reported Monday, signaled a potentially extended Israeli military presence and a reshaping of the security landscape in southern Lebanon. The comments have fueled anxieties about a repeat of the 1982-2000 occupation, a period marked by significant disruption and hardship for Lebanese communities. The current conflict began on March 2, when Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel, prompting a retaliatory campaign across Lebanon, escalating beyond the parameters of the 2023-24 conflict.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has begun ground operations in Lebanon, aiming to “eliminate threats and protect the residents of the Galilee and the North,” according to Minister Katz. These operations are focused on dismantling what Israel describes as Hezbollah’s infrastructure in border villages, mirroring tactics employed in Gaza, specifically in Rafah and Beit Hanoun. The conflict has already displaced approximately 1 million people within Lebanon, with reported casualties ranging from 800 to over 850 since the recent escalation, according to multiple reports.
The potential for widespread displacement and the conditions for return are raising serious legal concerns. Ramzi Kaiss, a Lebanon researcher for Human Rights Watch, warned that preventing civilians from returning to nearly 10% of Lebanon’s territory based on a vague “safety” standard could constitute a war crime and amount to forced displacement. “Preventing civilians from returning to their homes…would be unlawful and further raises the risk of forced displacement, which would be a war crime,” Kaiss stated.
Fears of a Prolonged Occupation Echo Past Conflicts
For residents of villages south of the Litani River, Katz’s statement evokes memories of the Israeli occupation from 1982 to 2000. Abbas Awadeh, a municipal official in Naqoura, expressed deep concern, stating, “God forbid we return to the days of the previous border-strip occupation. We’re afraid of that, honestly. It took us years before we were able to return to Naqoura. To return to that would be very hard.” Virtually all residents have fled Naqoura following an IDF displacement order issued last week, part of a broader directive for residents south of the Litani to move north.
The immediate impact of the displacement is dire, with many residents struggling to secure basic necessities. “People really want to return to their towns, because the situation is very difficult. Sometimes a person can’t even secure food. Displacement is humiliating,” Awadeh said.
Selective Displacement and Shifting Security Doctrine
Despite a blanket displacement order, the Israeli military is not requiring all villages to evacuate. Reports indicate that border villages with significant Christian populations are being exempted. This selective approach mirrors the practices of the 1982 occupation, when residents of certain Christian or Sunni villages were allowed to remain and even granted work permits within Israel.
Seven villages in the Arqoub area, along the eastern Lebanese-Israeli border, have been told by the Israeli military they can remain in their homes, provided they avoid involvement in any activity. Qassem al-Adiri, the mayor of Kfar Shouba, relayed the Israeli military’s instructions: “Don’t leave your homes, don’t go anywhere, don’t get involved and don’t allow any strangers to come close to you.” Similarly, residents of Rmeish, a Maronite Christian village, were informed they could stay as long as they prevented Hezbollah fighters from entering the area.
According to Prof. Yagil Levy, head of the Open University Institute for the Study of Civil-Military Relations in Israel, the ground operation reflects a “new security doctrine” adopted after October 7. This doctrine, he explains, involves seizing territory and removing the population to ensure freedom of action and minimize the risk of guerrilla warfare. “Israel regards this new security doctrine as feasible because the world…effectively accepts the principle of Israel’s right to absolute security,” Levy stated.
International Concerns and Future Implications
The escalating conflict has drawn concern from international leaders. Leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK issued a joint statement Monday evening, warning that a large-scale Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon would have “devastating humanitarian consequences and could lead to a protracted conflict.”
Israel’s expanding military operations appear aimed at reshaping the balance of power ahead of any potential diplomatic resolution. While international efforts to de-escalate the situation continue, Israel’s advances into Lebanese territory could strengthen its negotiating position. The situation remains fluid, and the potential for further escalation remains high. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether a wider conflict can be averted and whether displaced Lebanese will be able to return to their homes.
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