Bitcoin traders are paying the highest prices on record for downside protection, according to a new report from VanEck, signaling continued investor caution despite recent stabilization in spot prices. The firm’s mid-March 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck revealed a significant increase in demand for put options, indicating a prevailing fear of further price declines.
The report detailed a 19% decrease in Bitcoin’s 30-day average price compared to the previous period, coupled with a drop in realized volatility from approximately 80 to just above 50. Funding rates for futures contracts similarly eased, falling from 4.1% to 2.7%, suggesting a cooling of leveraged speculative activity. However, the options market painted a different picture, with investors exhibiting a level of fear not seen since China’s crackdown on Bitcoin mining in June 2021.
VanEck analysts found the put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77, peaking at 0.84 – the highest level recorded since the aforementioned Chinese regulatory action. Over the past 30 days, traders allocated roughly $685 million to put options, while premiums for call options decreased by 12% to approximately $562 million. Put premiums, relative to spot volume, reached an all-time high of roughly 4 basis points, exceeding levels observed in mid-2022 during the collapse of Terra/Luna and the liquidity crisis surrounding Ethereum staking.
“Relative to spot volume, put premiums reached an all-time high of roughly 4 basis points, roughly 3x the levels seen in mid-2022 following the Terra/Luna stablecoin collapse and the Ethereum staking liquidity crisis,” the report stated. This surge in demand for put options suggests investors are willing to pay a premium to insure against potential further losses.
Interestingly, VanEck’s analysis suggests that such periods of heightened fear have historically preceded positive market movements. The firm’s data indicates that similar skewed options readings in the past six years were followed by average Bitcoin gains of 13% over 90 days and 133% over 360 days. This historical pattern leads VanEck analysts to believe the current fear may represent a potential turning point rather than a harbinger of further declines.
The report also noted continued weakness in onchain activity, alongside contained selling pressure from Bitcoin miners. VanEck CEO Jan van Eck recently stated that Bitcoin is nearing a bottom in 2026, according to Bitbo, adding further context to the firm’s overall outlook. Long-term Bitcoin holders have also slowed their selling activity, a trend VanEck described as “potentially constructive” in a separate report, according to The Block.
VanEck’s mid-February 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck also highlighted similar trends, setting the stage for the more pronounced fear observed in the mid-March report. The firm continues to monitor onchain data and market activity for further signals regarding the future trajectory of Bitcoin.
