Mainz, Germany – German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) secured a lead in Sunday’s election in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate, according to initial projections from broadcaster ARD. The CDU garnered 30.5% of the vote, surpassing the Social Democrats (SPD) who received 26.9%, potentially ending 35 years of SPD rule in the region.
The outcome represents a significant, though not decisive, victory for Chancellor Merz, coming after a narrow loss for his party in the neighboring state of Baden-Württemberg on March 8. CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann described the results as “a great result” and highlighted the strong support for the centrist parties, noting that the CDU/CSU and SPD together secured over 50% of the vote.
The election outcome delivers a “bitter setback” to the SPD, according to the party’s Secretary-General Tim Kluessendorf. The SPD’s defeat in Rhineland-Palatinate follows a disappointing performance in Baden-Württemberg, where they secured only 5.5% of the vote, barely exceeding the threshold for parliamentary representation. The loss deepens the crisis within the SPD following the collapse of the governing coalition led by former Chancellor Olaf Scholz in 2024.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to receive 20% of the vote, mirroring their result in Baden-Württemberg and solidifying their position as Germany’s second-strongest party at the national level. Alice Weidel, the federal leader of the AfD, announced the party would perform “great work in the opposition” following the results.
Rhineland-Palatinate, a state bordering France, Belgium, and Luxembourg, is a key economic region, home to both vineyards and major industrial players like chemicals giant BASF. The state’s economy has been impacted by Germany’s recent economic stagnation and faces potential vulnerabilities related to energy disruptions stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran. The region similarly hosts several US military facilities, including Ramstein Air Base.
Depending on the final vote count, a coalition government at the state level mirroring the current national coalition – comprised of the CDU and SPD – is possible. CDU candidate Gordon Schnieder is positioned to potentially replace the current SPD premier, Alexander Schweitzer.
This election is the second of five state elections scheduled for 2026, with closely watched races anticipated in September in Berlin and the eastern states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD is hoping to achieve its first major electoral victory in these eastern states.
