The U.S. Brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, initiated on October 10, is facing sustained challenges as Hamas refuses to disarm, while radical Israeli settlers in the West Bank have engaged in violent rampages through Palestinian villages, escalating tensions.
David Makovsky, the Ziegler Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Koret Project on Arab-Israel Relations, asserts that “spoilers,” motivated by their own agendas, are actively attempting to undermine the fragile stability in Gaza. He emphasized that for the ceasefire to endure, both sides must address these disruptive forces.
The situation is complicated by the ongoing threat of external actors potentially exacerbating the conflict. Recent talks between the U.S. And Iran, held in Oman on February 5, 2026, were initially planned as a multilateral forum but were shifted to a bilateral format at Iran’s insistence, focusing solely on the nuclear file. This shift followed pressure from Turkey and Gulf allies, who fear the regional repercussions of a potential war, including a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory strikes.
Israel’s concerns regarding Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, described as the “last real deterrence Iran has against a total Israeli domination,” further contribute to the complex dynamics. The resumption of U.S.-Iran talks has raised questions about Israel’s potential role as a spoiler, a pattern observed in previous negotiations.
Makovsky’s analysis highlights the necessity for internal accountability. He argues that Arab governments, including the Palestinian Authority, must pressure Hamas to end its armed resistance, while Israeli leaders must confront the violence perpetrated by settlers in the West Bank. He stresses that external intervention is ineffective in controlling radical elements within a community, and that responsible leadership on both sides is crucial for marginalizing extremism.
The current instability echoes the period following Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, which occurred after “political tensions and much bloodshed between Palestinian factions.” The recent escalation in violence, coupled with the internal political turmoil within Israel prior to October 7th – including the threat of civil war and the rise of radical voices – underscores the fragility of the current ceasefire.
As of March 23, 2026, no public statement has been issued by Israeli leaders regarding specific actions to address settler violence in the West Bank, nor has Hamas publicly committed to disarming. The next scheduled event is a briefing on how Middle East societies grapple with war, starting March 24, 2026.
