Absolute uncertainty

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During the last week and a half, two serious events have placed the Government in a limit situation. The first, the pact with Bildu, followed by a confusing rectification by the Executive himself. Secondly, the quarrel of the Interior Minister with the Civil Guard following the dismissal of Pérez de los Cobos. In accordance with what the law requires, the colonel refused to reveal the data that he is in charge of providing to the investigating judge of 8-M. And Marlaska, in a fit of anger or seeking pre-emptive intimidation of other Charities, removed him from where he was. It is not unthinkable that the matter has criminal consequences. These episodes, not at all trivial, are projected on a politically and materially bleak background. According to international statistics on pandemic impact, we are the second country with the most deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in the world. And this is only half the story. The other half is that the government has imposed exceptionally severe containment measures, paralyzing the economy and leading to a depression from which it will not be easy to get out. The most pious explanation is that the disastrous management during the crucial weeks that preceded the virus’s implosion has forced a sanitary inescapable policy, as well as an economically suicidal one. Nor can it be excluded, however, that this policy was, in addition to being suicidal, ineffective.

Let us handle the hypotheses that we handle, the picture is lousy. The lies of the President, the nonsense of some of his ministers and the abuses committed invoking the state of alarm will complicate the extension of this in Congress. If it finally succeeds, perhaps it will be at the price of scandalous concessions to the various unconstitutional groups that dot the chamber. And we are only talking about the very short term. The next few months … do not promise to be better. The frontal clash between Iglesias and Nadia Calviño, with Sánchez in profile, constitutes the domestic manifestation of a problem whose protagonist is Europe. In other words: the permanence of United Podemos in the Government is increasingly damaging. Either European aid, accompanied by strong conditions, will presuppose the departure of Churches, or he will have to accept economic policies entirely incompatible with those he sponsors. Would the representative of veteroleninism in La Moncloa double the testuz? There is a division of opinions, but I tend to think not. Iglesias has not identified himself at any time with the government of which he is a part. By the traces, it could be said that he is taking advantage of his time in the vice presidency to underline his breakthrough profile. And that he will go down to the street, that is, he will leave Sánchez, when the Government is absolutely prostrate.

A prostrate government, in a prostrate country, is usually the propitious juncture to call elections. But they cannot be held for a few months, and the deterioration is progressing in Spain much faster than the official legislative calendar. Subtract, as an alternative, a new parliamentary combination. The most reasonable thing would be an agreement of the PSOE with the PP. Ideally, without Sánchez, a man who does not represent, cannot represent, the policy of national conciliation that circumstances require. Would the president sacrifice himself, attending to the general interests? I think they paint coarse. The least likely prospect, between now and Christmas, is chaos, in a climate of increasing delegitimization of the system. In the Casa de Tócame Roque that Spain has become, everything could happen. Verbigracia: in the next vote for the extension of the state of alarm, if there ever is one, Ciudadanos once again supports the Government, and the latter secretly agrees with Bildu. It would be unheard of for our political class to bring us that instant of infinite comedy. But the way things are, it is better not to make predictions. .

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