The integration of artificial intelligence into the workplace is sparking debate about its ultimate impact on employment. A new study from the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reveals a significant disconnect between how executives and employees perceive the future of work in the age of AI. While company leaders anticipate potential job cuts, workers largely believe AI will lead to increased employment opportunities.
The NBER study, titled “Firm Data on AI,” surveyed nearly 6,000 firms across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Australia. The research highlights the complex and often contradictory expectations surrounding AI’s transformative potential. Despite widespread investment and adoption, concrete evidence of AI’s impact on productivity and employment remains limited, at least for now.
Currently, over 80% of executives surveyed report that AI has had no discernible impact on either employment levels or overall productivity within their organizations over the past three years. However, expectations shift dramatically when looking ahead. Executives forecast that AI will boost productivity by 1.4%, increase output by 0.8%, and result in a 0.7% reduction in employment over the next three years. This anticipated decline translates to an estimated 1.75 million jobs lost across the four surveyed nations by 2028, according to The Register.
This pessimistic outlook sharply contrasts with the views of employees. The NBER study found that workers, on average, expect AI to increase employment by 0.5% over the same three-year period. This divergence in expectations suggests a substantial gap in understanding and anticipation regarding the future of work, with leaders bracing for workforce reductions while employees foresee net job creation.
Current AI Adoption Rates
Despite the limited immediate impact, AI adoption is already widespread. Approximately 69% of businesses currently utilize some form of AI, with common applications including text generation using large language models, visual content creation, and data processing using machine learning, as reported by The Register. 75% of businesses anticipate increasing their use of AI in the coming three years.
Productivity Gains Remain Elusive
The study similarly reveals a surprisingly low level of actual AI usage among top executives. While over two-thirds regularly use AI, their average usage is only 1.5 hours per week, with a quarter reporting no AI use at all, according to the NBER working paper. This suggests that even as companies invest in AI technologies, their leaders aren’t fully integrating them into their daily workflows.
The NBER research builds upon broader discussions about the economic implications of AI. A separate NBER working paper, “A.I. And Our Economic Future,” published in January 2026, describes AI as potentially “the most important technology we have ever developed,” comparing it to transformative technologies like electricity and the internet. Charles I. Jones, the author of that paper, suggests that automating intelligence itself could have broader effects than previous technological advancements.
Funding and Research Behind the Study
The “Firm Data on AI” study was supported by grants from the Sloan Foundation (#G-2023-19633) and the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation (#20251294), as detailed on the NBER website. The research team included economists from multiple institutions, including the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and the Bank of England.
As AI continues to evolve and become more integrated into business operations, the discrepancy between executive and employee expectations will likely remain a key area of focus. The coming years will be critical in determining whether AI ultimately leads to widespread job displacement or a new era of economic growth and opportunity. Further research and ongoing monitoring of AI’s impact on the labor market will be essential to navigate this evolving landscape.
What do you think? Will AI create more jobs than it eliminates? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
