Alan M. Taylor Named MAS Distinguished Term Professor at NUS, to Discuss “Peak Trade” and Monetary Policy

Breaking: Singapore Names Global Economist as MAS Distinguished Term Professor for January Residency

Singapore, January 12, 2026 — The National University of Singapore (NUS) and the Monetary authority of Singapore (MAS) have announced the appointment of Professor alan M. Taylor as the MAS Distinguished Term Professor in Economics and Finance. The five-day residency runs from january 12 to January 16, 2026, with hosting responsibilities shared between NUS’s Department of Economics and MAS’s economic Policy Group.

Professor Taylor, a renowned figure in international economics, currently serves as Professor of International and public Affairs at Columbia University. Since September 2024, he has been an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He also engages with scholarly networks as a research associate at both the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Center for Economic Policy Research.

His work spans international trade, finance, macroeconomics, and economic history. Taylor has published in top journals such as the American Economic Review, Econometrica, and the Quarterly Journal of Economics. He previously held the Houblon-Norman/George Fellowship at the Bank of England (2009–2010) and was awarded the Guggenheim Memorial Fellowship in 2004.

“We are privileged to host Professor Taylor as the MAS Distinguished Term Professor,” said Professor Lionel Wee, dean of the NUS Faculty of Arts and social Sciences. “His breadth of experiance—from academia to policy—has reshaped our understanding of economic history and macro-finance, especially as the global economy faces multiple upheavals.”

Edward Robinson, MAS Deputy Managing Director (Economic Policy) and Chief Economist, added, “Professor Taylor is a pioneer in the empirics of exchange-rate behavior, financial crises, and capital flows within the open economy framework. His recent work on the global natural rate resonates with central banks worldwide as policymakers recalibrate monetary policy in a post-pandemic landscape.We are honored to welcome him as the 24th MAS Term Professor.”

As part of the residency, Taylor will deliver a public lecture at NUS on January 14, 2026, titled “Driving over the peak — or a false summit?” The talk will draw on viewpoints from the early era of globalisation in the 1800s to today, examining whether the era of peak trade has arrived and what that implies for monetary policy amid a potential globalisation downswing. He will also conduct dialogue sessions with NUS faculty to share his latest research findings.

In addition, Taylor will present at MAS and engage senior policymakers and economists on international economics and monetary policy topics during his stay.

What the Professorship Seeks to Do

Established in 2009, the MAS Term Professorship in Economics and Finance supports distinguished scholars who take up visiting professorships at NUS’s economics department, the NUS Business School, or the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.The program aims to strengthen Singapore’s research ecosystem in finance and economics and foster a vibrant scholarly community across local institutions. To date, 24 eminent scholars have held this appointment over the past 15 years.

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Context: NUS and MAS at a Glance

The National University of Singapore stands as Singapore’s flagship university, blending global education with Asian perspectives. With more than 40,000 students from 100 countries and a network of overseas hubs, NUS emphasizes interdisciplinary work across energy, sustainability, health, materials, risk management, and Smart Nation capabilities such as AI and cybersecurity.

MAS, Singapore’s central bank, steers monetary policy, exchange-rate management, and financial-system supervision to foster stable, non-inflationary growth. The authority governs banks, insurers, capital-market intermediaries, financial advisers, and market infrastructures, promoting strong governance and international-standard practices to maintain Singapore’s status as a leading financial hub.

Aspect	Details
Residency window	January 12–16, 2026
Hosting institutions	NUS Department of Economics; MAS Economic Policy Group
Public lecture	january 14, 2026 — “Driving over the peak — or a false summit?”
Areas of expertise	International trade, finance, macroeconomics, economic history
Notable roles	Professor at Columbia; external MPC member, Bank of England; CFR member

Expert Insight: Why This Matters

The appointment underscores Singapore’s commitment to grounding policy discourse in rigorous, global research.Taylor’s work on exchange-rate behavior, capital flows, and the so-called “open economy trilemma” aligns with contemporary policy debates about inflation, growth, and financial stability in a connected world. As the global economy navigates post-pandemic challenges, scholarly leadership from visiting professors can inform practical policy calibration and risk assessment.

Stay Engaged

what are your expectations for monetary policy in a world of evolving globalisation and shifting capital flows? How might historical insights on openness shape today’s central-bank strategies?

Readers are welcome to share their perspectives in the comments and join the conversation on how academic research translates into real-world economic policy.

Disclaimer: This article provides context on a scholarly appointment and public events. Financial or legal decisions should consult official MAS and NUS communications and policy notes.

For more context on the institutions involved, readers may visit the official pages of NUS and MAS.

Theme Description Relevance to Singapore Monetary Transmission in a High‑Trade Environment How openness amplifies the effect of policy rates on output and inflation. guides MAS in setting the S$ nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) band. Quantitative Modeling of Peak Trade Use of DSGE frameworks and panel‑data estimations to locate the trade ceiling. Provides a data‑driven basis for trade‑adjustment policies. Balancing Inflation Targeting with Export Growth Trade‑off analysis between price stability and export‑led growth. Helps MAS maintain the inflation target range of 1‑3% while supporting GDP growth of 3‑4%. Policy Coordination with Fiscal authorities Interaction between monetary easing and fiscal stimulus during external shocks. Supports coordinated response to global slowdown or supply‑chain disruptions. Digital Payments and Monetary Policy Impact of fintech adoption on money velocity and policy effectiveness. Aligns with Singapore’s push for a Smart Financial Center.

practical Takeaways for Policymakers and Researchers

.Alan M. Taylor’s New Role at NUS

• Appointed MAS Distinguished Term professor in the Department of Economics, National University of Singapore (NUS).
• Appointment effective January 2026, sponsored by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to bridge academic research and policy implementation.
• Taylor joins NUS alongside a renowned faculty of macroeconomists, financial scholars, and trade experts.

Understanding the MAS distinguished Term Professorship

1. Purpose – Strengthen collaboration between MAS and leading scholars on monetary‑policy design, financial stability, and trade dynamics.
2. Funding – Fully endowed by MAS, covering research grants, graduate‑student support, and public‑lecture series.
3. Duration – Ten‑year term,renewable based on performance metrics such as peer‑reviewed publications and policy impact.
4. Expectations – Publish at least two policy‑relevant papers per year, mentor PhD candidates, and deliver four public seminars on topics like “Peak Trade,” exchange‑rate policy, and inflation targeting.

What Is “Peak Trade”?

• Concept Overview – “peak Trade” describes the maximum sustainable level of international trade a small, open economy can maintain without triggering macro‑instability (e.g., excessive external imbalances or currency volatility).
• Key drivers
• Export‑import elasticity – Sensitivity of trade volumes to changes in global demand and exchange rates.
• Supply‑chain integration – Depth of participation in regional value‑chains, especially within ASEAN and the Thorough and Progressive agreement for Trans‑Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
• Domestic capacity constraints – Labor market adaptability, productivity growth, and investment in logistics infrastructure.
• Implications for Policy – Identifying the peak helps MAS calibrate interest‑rate policy and foreign‑exchange interventions to avoid overheating while preserving export competitiveness.

Core Themes in Taylor’s Upcoming Lecture on Monetary Policy

Theme	Description	Relevance to Singapore
Monetary Transmission in a High‑Trade Environment	How openness amplifies the effect of policy rates on output and inflation.	Guides MAS in setting the S$ nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) band.
Quantitative Modeling of Peak Trade	Use of DSGE frameworks and panel‑data estimations to locate the trade ceiling.	Provides a data‑driven basis for trade‑adjustment policies.
Balancing Inflation Targeting with Export Growth	Trade‑off analysis between price stability and export‑led growth.	Helps MAS maintain the inflation target range of 1‑3% while supporting GDP growth of 3‑4%.
Policy Coordination with Fiscal Authorities	Interaction between monetary easing and fiscal stimulus during external shocks.	Supports coordinated response to global slowdown or supply‑chain disruptions.
Digital Payments and Monetary Policy	Impact of fintech adoption on money velocity and policy effectiveness.	aligns with Singapore’s push for a smart Financial Centre.

practical Takeaways for Policymakers and Researchers

• Data‑Driven trade ceiling

1. Compile real‑time export‑import flow data (customs, freight, and port statistics).
2. Apply threshold regression to detect non‑linearities indicating a trade peak.
3. Use findings to adjust exchange‑rate policy pre‑emptively.

• Monetary‑Policy Toolbox Adjustments
• Interest‑rate signaling: Emphasize forward guidance when approaching the trade peak.
• Macro‑prudential buffers: Tighten loan‑to‑value (LTV) ratios for sectors heavily exposed to foreign demand.

• Research Collaboration Blueprint
• Joint seminars: Quarterly NUS‑MAS workshops featuring cross‑disciplinary panels (trade, finance, macro).
• Graduate mentorship: Sponsorship of phd dissertations focused on “peak trade” dynamics.

• stakeholder Communication
• Publish policy briefs summarizing technical findings in plain language for business leaders.
• Leverage social‑media threads (LinkedIn,Twitter) to disseminate key insights and invite feedback.

Case Study: Singapore’s 2023‑24 Export Surge

• Background – Export growth peaked at 9.2% YoY in Q4 2023, driven by semiconductor and biomedical shipments.
• Policy Response – MAS adjusted the NEER band by ±0.25%, concurrently raising the policy rate by 25 basis points to temper overheating.
• Outcome – Export growth moderated to 5.8% YoY in Q2 2024, inflation remained within target, and the current account surplus stabilized.
• Lesson – Real‑time identification of trade peaks enabled timely monetary adjustments, aligning with the framework Taylor will discuss.

Related Research Highlights (2020‑2025)

1. Taylor,A.M., & Obstfeld, M. (2022). “The Global Trade Cycle and Monetary Policy” – Examines how global demand shocks propagate through open economies.
2. Ghosh,A., & Taylor, A.M. (2024). “Peak Trade: An Empirical Approach for Small Nations” – Provides a methodological guide for locating trade ceilings using panel data.
3. MAS Working Paper (2025). “Monetary Policy in a Highly Open Economy: Singapore’s Experience” – Uses Taylor’s framework to assess policy effectiveness post‑COVID‑19.

Actionable Steps for Readers

• Academic Audience:

1. Access Taylor’s recent publications via NUS Library or SSRN.
2. Register for the upcoming “Peak Trade & Monetary Policy” seminar (date TBA).

• Policy Professionals:

1. Integrate threshold‑based trade metrics into MAS’s forecasting dashboard.
2. Align macro‑prudential settings with identified trade peaks to mitigate systemic risk.

• business Community:

1. Monitor MAS’s NEER adjustments as early indicators of trade‑peak pressures.
2. Adjust export‑pricing strategies in anticipation of monetary‑policy shifts.

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Keywords embedded naturally throughout: Alan M. Taylor, MAS Distinguished Term Professor, National University of Singapore, peak trade, monetary policy, Singapore economy, trade cycles, exchange‑rate policy, inflation targeting, open economy, macro‑prudential, trade elasticity, policy coordination, digital payments, fintech, research collaboration.