A recent Roy Morgan survey indicates a narrowing of the gap between the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and the Liberal-National Party (L-NP) coalition, fueled in part by concerns over rising fuel prices and recent state election results. The shift in voter sentiment comes as Australians grapple with a record high average retail petrol price of $2.38 per litre, an increase of over 70 cents since mid-February – a 43.3% jump.
The survey, conducted between March 16-22, 2026, with a representative sample of 1,664 Australian electors, shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis with 52.5%, down 1.5% from previous polling. The L-NP coalition has gained 1.5% to reach 47.5%. While the ALP maintains a lead, the margin has tightened, signaling potential challenges for the government as economic pressures mount. This comes after a pivotal South Australian election win for the incumbent Labor government led by Premier Peter Malinauskas.
The changing political landscape is also reflected in primary vote numbers. ALP primary support has decreased by 1.5% to 27%, while the L-NP coalition has seen a 1.5% increase to 25.5% – with the Liberals up 1% to 21.5% and the Nationals up 0.5% to 4%. Notably, One Nation has experienced a 1% increase to 23.5% and the Greens have also gained ground with a 1% rise to 13.5%. Support for other parties and independents has fallen by 2% to 10.5%.
Fuel Prices and Voter Sentiment
The surge in fuel prices appears to be a significant driver of the shift in voter preferences. The economic strain is impacting households across the country, and the Roy Morgan survey suggests What we have is translating into decreased support for the governing ALP. The timing of the survey coincides with national debate surrounding fuel shortages and soaring costs, highlighting the issue’s prominence in the public consciousness.
The South Australian election result, where Premier Malinauskas secured victory, provides a contrasting dynamic. Lower support for smaller parties and independents in South Australia benefited the Labor Party. Though, at the national level, this shift in support is benefiting the L-NP coalition, One Nation, and the Greens, indicating a complex interplay of state and federal political currents.
Two-Party Preferred and Potential Election Outcome
When preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted in the 2025 Federal Election, the ALP leads with 51% compared to the L-NP’s 49% – a smaller lead than when preferences are determined by current voter intentions. Despite the narrowing gap, the survey suggests that if a federal election were held now, the ALP would likely be returned to government, albeit with a narrow majority under either preference allocation method.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased by 2.5 points to 67.5, but remains significantly below the neutral level of 100. A majority, 59.5% (down 1%), of Australians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, while 27% (up 1.5%) feel it is on the right track. This negative sentiment is occurring against a backdrop of ongoing international tensions, with the survey noting the impact of conflicts involving the US and Israel in the Middle East and Iran’s subsequent retaliatory actions.
Shifting Primary Vote Breakdown
Here’s a breakdown of the primary vote shifts over the past few weeks:
| Party | Feb. 23-Mar. 1, 2026 | Mar. 2-8, 2026 | Mar. 9-15, 2026 | Mar. 16-22, 2026 | Change (1 Week) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | 30.5% | 26.5% | 28.5% | 27% | -1.5% |
| L-NP | 23.5% | 22.5% | 24% | 25.5% | +1.5% |
| One Nation | 22% | 23.5% | 22.5% | 23.5% | +1% |
| Greens | 11.5% | 14.5% | 12.5% | 13.5% | +1% |
| Independents/Others | 12.5% | 13% | 12.5% | 10.5% | -2% |
| TOTAL | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The survey also revealed that 5.5% of electors (down 0.5%) remain undecided. Roy Morgan emphasizes the importance of considering the dates of polling when comparing different surveys to ensure accurate analysis.
Further details from the Roy Morgan survey will be presented in a weekly video update by Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine. Those seeking more detailed analysis, including breakdowns by state, demographics, and other factors, can contact Julian McCrann at (03) 9224 5365 or [email protected].
The evolving political landscape suggests that economic factors, particularly fuel prices, are playing an increasingly significant role in shaping voter intentions. As the situation in the Middle East continues to unfold and fuel costs remain elevated, it will be crucial to monitor how these developments further impact Australian political sentiment in the weeks and months ahead.
What are your thoughts on these shifting political trends? Share your perspective in the comments below.
