A $12 billion plan to build a U.S. Stockpile of critical minerals, dubbed “Project Vault,” was announced by President Trump on February 2, marking a significant escalation in Washington’s efforts to counter China’s dominance in the supply chain for materials essential to both economic and national security.
The initiative, backed by a $10 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank of the United States and $2 billion in private funding, aims to secure a 60-day emergency supply of critical minerals for manufacturers. The move follows years of growing concern over China’s control of the mining, processing, and export of these materials, which are integral to a vast range of products, from smartphones and electric vehicles to advanced weaponry.
“For years, China has leveraged its dominance of critical minerals by manipulating global markets and supply chains,” Senator Todd Young (R-Ind.), a co-sponsor of the SECURE Minerals Act, told The Cipher Brief. “These materials are used in everything from fighter jets and submarines to missile systems and drones, and China’s monopolization has created a significant vulnerability.”
The U.S. Geological Survey’s 2025 Mineral Commodity Summary highlights the extent of the reliance: the U.S. Is entirely dependent on imports for 12-13 critical minerals, with China being the leading supplier for 24 minerals where U.S. Import reliance exceeds 50%. Crucially, China refines at least 70% – and often over 90% – of the global supply for 19 of the 20 minerals deemed most strategically critical by the U.S.
China demonstrated its willingness to weaponize this control last year, responding to U.S. Tariffs in April by tightening export controls on rare earths and magnets, materials vital to the U.S. Defense sector. Even as restrictions were eased after a Trump-Xi summit, the message was clear: the U.S. Is vulnerable. Beijing further expanded these restrictions in July, targeting additional minerals.
Fabian Villalobos, Senior Engineer at RAND and Professor at the RAND Graduate School of Public Policy, described the current moment as a shift from analysis to action. “The U.S. Is moving from analysis and into operations. There’s a point when you stop doing analysis and you start doing something about it.”
China’s dominance is the result of decades of strategic investment. Since the 1990s, Beijing has actively supported its state-owned companies, restricted foreign investment in the sector, and consolidated production. This has allowed China to control not just the mining of critical minerals, but the entire ecosystem, from processing to export.
The Trump administration’s approach, exemplified by Project Vault, mirrors some of China’s tactics, employing state financing, potential partial government ownership of mining firms – notably through a public-private partnership with MP Materials – and strategic stockpiling. The Export-Import Bank loan represents the largest outlay in its history.
“The Trump administration has proven willing not only to convene these initiatives but to back them with significant taxpayer resources,” said Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, in February. “In the past six months, the administration has announced plans to deploy tens of billions of dollars in public capital—taking equity stakes in and extending credit to strategic firms—in an effort to reengineer entire global supply chains.”
Alongside Project Vault, Senator Young and three other senators introduced the SECURE Minerals Act, proposing a $2.5 billion “Strategic Resilience Reserve” to support domestic industry, create storage facilities, and stabilize prices. “To grow our independence and protect our national security,” Sen. Young stated, “we need to ensure the United States has a secure and accessible supply of critical minerals.”
The U.S. Is likewise pursuing a broader diplomatic strategy, seeking to diversify its supply chains and build alliances with mineral-rich nations. On February 4, Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted leaders from over 50 countries to launch the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE), a coalition intended to counter China’s influence. The State Department stated FORGE would “strengthen diversified, resilient, and secure critical minerals supply chains.”
This outreach extends beyond multilateral forums. The U.S. Has announced critical minerals frameworks or Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) with Argentina, Morocco, the Philippines, the United Arab Emirates, Great Britain, and several other countries. Larger agreements include a multibillion-dollar deal with Australia, potentially supplying up to 40 of the 50 minerals the U.S. Considers essential, and a U.S.-Saudi Arabia agreement to develop a refinery in Saudi Arabia.
Recent agreements also include a minerals deal with Ukraine and acknowledgement of rare earth resources as a factor in U.S. Interest in Greenland. The U.S. Has also sent its largest-ever delegation to Africa’s biggest mining conference, signaling a renewed focus on the continent’s mineral wealth.
Some experts advocate for a more radical approach, focusing on “leapfrogging” China through innovation in materials science, recovery, and recycling. A recent report by the Council on Foreign Relations and Silverado Policy Accelerator argues that the U.S. Should prioritize these areas over attempting to directly compete with China in mining and processing. A study in Science suggested that recovering metals from existing mining waste could meet a significant portion of U.S. Critical mineral needs.
The U.S. Is also exploring unconventional sources, such as deep-sea mining, exemplified by cooperation with the Cook Islands in their Exclusive Economic Zone. This follows an executive order aimed at unleashing America’s offshore critical mineral resources, though deep-sea mining remains controversial due to environmental concerns.
Mahnaz Khan, Vice President of Policy for Critical Supply Chains at Silverado Policy Accelerator, described the emerging strategy as “a new American industrial playbook for critical minerals,” focused on rebuilding and reshoring the rare earths sector to reduce decades of dependence on China.
Despite the ambitious initiatives, challenges remain. Experts caution that building new mines and refineries will take years, and securing the cooperation of allies may prove difficult. China continues to strengthen its own position, recently gaining control of a major Tanzanian rare-earth mine previously held by an Australian company.
The administration has not yet responded to questions regarding the potential for retaliatory measures from China in response to Project Vault and the broader push for supply chain diversification.
