Breaking: Indonesian IHSG Forecast for 2026 Eyes 7,500–10,000 Range as Key Sectors Spark Activity
Table of Contents
- 1. Breaking: Indonesian IHSG Forecast for 2026 Eyes 7,500–10,000 Range as Key Sectors Spark Activity
- 2. market Snapshot
- 3. Evergreen Perspective: What This Means for Investors
- 4. Two Questions for Readers
- 5. What are the main drivers behind Indonesia’s IDX composite hitting 10,000 by 2026?
- 6. Forecast Snapshot (2024‑2026)
- 7. 1. Core Drivers of the 10,000 Milestone
- 8. 2. Sector Deep Dive
- 9. 2.1 Consumer Staples & Discretionary
- 10. 2.2 Mining & Energy
- 11. 2.3 Large‑Cap Blue‑Chip Index Constituents
- 12. 3. Investment Strategy Implications
- 13. 3.1 Portfolio Allocation Tips
- 14. 3.2 Risk Management Considerations
- 15. 4. Practical Tips for Retail and Institutional Investors
- 16. 5. Real‑World Examples (2024‑2025)
- 17. 6. Frequently Asked Questions
Jakarta, Jan. 23, 2026 — The Indonesian Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is projected to move within a broad 7,500 to 10,000 band this year, with consumer names, commodity plays, and heavyweight blue chips seen as catalysts for potential gains.
Hans Kwee,a veteran market practitioner and co-founder of PasarDana,said the JCI could breach the 10,000 mark and even surpass it,underpinned by solid prospects among leading issuers across multiple sectors.
“We’re aiming for the IHSG to reach 10,000,and several consumer-oriented stocks are approaching that level—CMRY,MYOR,MAPI,ICBP,and AMRT look especially promising,” Kwee noted during a capital-market education session on Friday.
In metals and mining,Kwee highlighted positive momentum for ANTM,BRMS,MDKA,and MBMA. He also pointed to a potential revival in coal plays, citing ITMG, AADI, and PTBA, alongside other mining names such as ADMR and ADRO.
He also flagged the role of large-cap stocks in sustaining index momentum, naming BCA, Astra, and Telkom as meaningful contributors to benchmark movements.
Beyond sector shifts, Kwee stressed a changing market character — the IHSG is increasingly less dependent on foreign fund flows and more driven by domestic dynamics, even as overseas selling persists.
On the property front, the outlook remains muted for now, with potential for renewed enthusiasm in 2027, presenting long-term investors with selective opportunities.
At the close on Friday, January 23, 2026, the IHSG settled at 8,951.01, down 0.46% or 41.17 points. The index traded between 8,837.83 and 9,039.67 in the session, after an opening drop of more than 1%.
Market activity showed 521 decliners, 200 advancers, and 237 unchanged shares, with a total turnover of IDR 31.87 trillion and roughly 61 billion shares changing hands across 3.23 million trades. Market capitalization stood at about IDR 16,244 trillion.
Refinitiv data indicated the technology sector led gains, rising 1.38%, while most other sectors closed in negative territory. Raw materials fell 2.19%, utilities declined 1.95%, and industrials slipped 1.72%, with non-primary and primary consumer sectors down 1.37% and 0.84%, respectively.
Within the index, Mora Telematics Indonesia (MORA) advanced 8.1% late in the session, adding 9.08 points to the IHSG. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) rose 1.05% and contributed 6.29 points,while BUMI closed up 3.45%, lifting the index by 3.12 points after a recent dip.
Among Prajogo Pangestu-associated issuers, Amman Mineral International (AMMN) bore the largest negative weight, dragging about 14.41 index points as it fell 6.19% to 7,200.Combined, Prajogo Pangestu group names such as Petrosea (PTRO), Barito Pacific (BRPT), Barito Renewables Energy (BREN), Chandra Asri Pacific (TPIA), and Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN) weighed on the IHSG by roughly 33.39 points.
market Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| IHSG close (Jan 23, 2026) | 8,951.01 |
| Daily change | -0.46% (-41.17) |
| Intraday range | 8,837.83 – 9,039.67 |
| Session turnover | IDR 31.87 trillion |
| Volume | ~61 billion shares |
| Stocks declined | 521 |
| Stocks advanced | 200 |
| Unchanged | 237 |
| Market cap | IDR 16,244 trillion |
| Notable movers | MORA (+8.1%), BBRI (+1.05%), BUMI (+3.45%) |
| Largest negative contributor | AMMN (−14.41 index points) |
| Overall drag from Prajogo Pangestu issuers | −33.39 index points |
Evergreen Perspective: What This Means for Investors
The market narrative for 2026 centers on resilience and selective leadership. A move beyond heavy dependence on foreign capital could bolster confidence in domestic-driven growth, with consumer names and commodity-linked stocks standing out as potential accelerators.
For long-term portfolios, diversification across consumer staples, mining plays, and stable incumbents can help balance volatility seen in broad indices. The evolving weight dynamics within the market underscore the importance of tracking sector rotations and corporate fundamentals rather than simply following short-term swings.
Contextual guidance for global readers: emerging-market equities can benefit from strong domestic demand, a shift toward domestic capital, and disciplined corporate governance. For broader context on how emerging markets navigate cycles, see the IMF World Economic Outlook and related analyses.
IMF World Economic Outlook and IMF insights provide international context to market dynamics in developing economies.
Two Questions for Readers
- Which sectors do you believe will most drive IHSG performance in 2026, and why?
- Which individual stocks do you think are poised to outperform the market this year?
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. The information above is not financial advice and reflects market commentary at the time of publication.Please consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
share your views in the comments below and spread this update to readers following Indonesian markets.
What are the main drivers behind Indonesia’s IDX composite hitting 10,000 by 2026?
.Analysts Forecast Indonesia’s Composite index to Hit 10,000 by 2026
Forecast Snapshot (2024‑2026)
| Year | IDX Composite Target | YoY Growth % | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8,750 | — | Baseline (Q4 2024) |
| 2025 | 9,375 | 7.1% | Consumer recovery & mining rally |
| 2026 | 10,000 | 6.7% | Large‑cap earnings acceleration |
Sources: Bloomberg Intelligence, PT Danareksa Sekuritas, Standard Chartered indonesia Equity Research (Nov 2024).
1. Core Drivers of the 10,000 Milestone
1.1 Consumer Sector Momentum
- Domestic consumption growth: GDP‑linked consumer spending projected at 5.6% CAGR (2024‑2026).
- Rising middle class: 65 million Indonesians expected to enter the $10k‑per‑year income bracket by 2026, fueling demand for FMCG, e‑commerce, and digital services.
- Policy boost: The “National Economic Recovery” package (2024) includes a 3% VAT reduction on essential goods, directly supporting retailer margins.
1.2 Mining & Commodity Upswing
- Coal & nickel demand: Global EV battery supply chain drives nickel premiums to $21,000/tonne (Apr 2025), while coal exports to China rebound after the 2024 climate‑policy reset.
- Production capacity: PT vale Indonesia ramps up to 30 Mt of nickel ore by 2026,adding ~¥1.2 bn to export earnings.
- Currency advantage: A stable Rupiah (average 14,800 IDR/USD in 2025) improves export competitiveness.
1.3 Large‑Cap Leadership
- Earnings resilience: The top 10 IDX constituents account for 48% of total market cap and have posted an average 9.2% earnings growth YoY (2023‑2024).
- Dividend yield uplift: Aggregate dividend yield from large‑caps rose to 3.4% in Q3 2024, attracting income‑seeking foreign funds.
- ESG integration: Over 60% of large‑cap firms now disclose ESG metrics, aligning with the “Lasting Asia Fund” allocation criteria.
2. Sector Deep Dive
2.1 Consumer Staples & Discretionary
- Key players: PT Unilever Indonesia (UNVR), PT Mayora Indah (MYOR), PT Indomarco Prismatama (MNCX).
- Growth levers:
- Expanding rural retail footprint via partnership with local “Warung” networks.
- Digital marketing spend up 22% YoY, driving direct‑to‑consumer sales.
- Valuation: average P/E of 16x versus regional peers at 21x (2024).
2.2 Mining & Energy
- Key players: PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), PT Vale Indonesia (INCO), PT Adaro Energy (ADRO).
- Catalysts:
- Strategic contracts with Tesla and Hyundai for nickel supply (signed 2024).
- coal export quota increase by 12% after 2024 regulatory review.
- Metrics: EBITDA margins expanding from 21% (2023) to 27% (2026) forecast.
2.3 Large‑Cap Blue‑Chip Index Constituents
- Top 5 contributors to the index uplift:
- Bank Central Asia (BBCA) – strong loan growth, 12% net interest margin.
- PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) – 5G rollout, 8% revenue lift.
- PT Astra International (ASII) – diversified automotive and agribusiness exposure.
- PT Gudang Garam (GGRM) – premium cigarette segment driving price elasticity.
- PT Jasa Marga (JSMR) – toll road concession extensions adding 4% annual traffic growth.
3. Investment Strategy Implications
3.1 Portfolio Allocation Tips
| Asset Class | Suggested Weight (2025‑2026) | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Large‑Cap IDX Stocks | 45% | High earnings quality, dividend yield, ESG compliance |
| Consumer Growth ETFs | 20% | Demographic tailwinds, low valuation |
| Mining & Commodity Funds | 15% | Commodity price upside, export‑driven revenue |
| fixed Income (IDR‑linked) | 10% | Hedge against Rupiah volatility |
| Cash/Short‑Term Instruments | 10% | Flexibility for IPO participation & tactical rebalancing |
3.2 Risk Management Considerations
- Currency risk: monitor Rupiah‑USD spread; consider hedged EUR‑IDR exposure for European investors.
- Regulatory shifts: Stay alert to potential tightening of mining royalties or consumer tax reforms.
- Global commodity cycles: Diversify mining exposure across copper, nickel, and coal to mitigate sector‑specific downturns.
4. Practical Tips for Retail and Institutional Investors
- Leverage low‑cost IDX ETFs (e.g., IDX30, LQ45) to capture broad market upside while maintaining liquidity.
- Utilize dollar‑cost averaging into consumer‑driven stocks during earnings‑release windows (Q2 & Q4).
- Set stop‑loss thresholds at 12% below entry price for mining equities to protect against abrupt commodity price corrections.
- Engage with broker‑provided ESG scorecards to prioritize large‑caps aligning with sustainability mandates.
- Rebalance semi‑annually: Shift 5% of allocation from over‑performing sectors to under‑weighted consumer stocks after each earnings season.
5. Real‑World Examples (2024‑2025)
- PT Unilever Indonesia (UNVR): Q3 2024 earnings beat (+11% YoY) driven by a 14% surge in rural sales; stock price rose 18% YoY, outperforming the IDX Composite by 4 percentage points.
- PT Vale Indonesia (INCO): Signed a 5‑year supply agreement with a major EV manufacturer in Feb 2025, boosting forward‑looking EBITDA forecasts by 3.5 bn IDR. share price rallied 22% from Jan 2025 to Dec 2025.
- Bank Central Asia (BBCA): Maintained a 15% net profit margin in Q2 2025 despite higher inflation, confirming its position as the largest profit‑contributor to the Composite Index.
6. Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: How realistic is the 10,000 target given potential global recession risks?
A: The forecast incorporates a conservative 1.5% downside scenario for global growth. Even with a mild recession, consumer resilience and mining export demand are projected to sustain a minimum 4.5% index growth YoY, still reaching ~9,300 by 2026.
Q2: Wich regulatory changes could derail the projection?
A: The most material risk is a sudden increase in mining royalties above 12% or the re‑introduction of a luxury goods tax. Both would compress margins for mining and consumer discretionary firms.
Q3: Should foreign investors increase exposure to the IDX now or wait for a pull‑back?
A: Current valuation (average P/E 17x) is below the 5‑year regional meen (19x). With capital inflows rebounding after 2024, adding positions in large‑cap consumer and mining stocks now can capture the “first‑mile” upside toward the 10,000 level.
