APEC Summit: Evaluating the Impact of Xi-Trump Diplomacy on Bilateral Relations and Substantial Outcomes

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U.S. President Trump arrived in Gyeongju, South Korea, where the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit will be held on Wednesday (October 29), and plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, more than an hour’s drive away. This will be the first face-to-face meeting between the leaders of the two countries since Trump began his second term.

This bilateral meeting was held during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit and was a “side meeting” – since Xi Jinping took office in 2014, eight similar meetings between the heads of state of China and the United States were held during multilateral summits.

BBC Chinese visiting scholar analyzes why there are more and more “sideline meetings” between heads of state? How is it different from a formal summit?

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Image caption,This bilateral meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States was held on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit (APEC). However, the meeting venue between the two was set to be in Busan, not Gyeongju, where the summit will be held.

What is a “courtside meeting”?

Generally speaking, meetings between leaders of the two countries can take several forms.

The first is leaders’ overseas visits, of which state visits are the highest level form of diplomatic exchanges. The scene is grand, the protocol is strict, gun salutes are fired, and dinners are held. During their visits, in addition to exchanging views on issues of concern, the two heads of state will also arrange special activities – for example, when Obama visited China during his term in office, he climbed the Great Wall and visited the Forbidden City. When Trump paid a state visit to China in 2017, Xi Jinping closed the Forbidden City to receive him.

The second type of meeting is a bilateral summit meeting. The leaders of the two countries convene to resolve major issues. They will prepare the agenda and discussion framework in advance, and the meeting generally does not last too long. In recent years, most bilateral summits between these heads of state have been arranged during large-scale multilateral conferences and forums, also known as “sideline meetings.”

Song Wendi, a China researcher at the U.S. Atlantic Council, explained to BBC Chinese that sideline meetings when holding large-scale meetings in a third place can significantly reduce the logistical costs of organizing state banquets, 21-gun salutes and other events, while also reducing the political costs of formal meetings.

“For two countries with hostile relations, if one side decides to grant the other the honor of a state visit, it may trigger a domestic nationalist backlash; or the other side may feel that an unofficial visit (rather than a state visit) would be a loss of face and embarrassing.”

The most recent state visit by Xi Jinping to the United States dates back to 2015, during the Obama administration; the visit of the US head of state to China also dates back to 2017, when Trump received an extraordinary reception from China and called it a “state visit+”. However, after the trade war broke out between China and the United States, relations between the two sides deteriorated, and there was no further exchange of visits at the “state visit” level. Since 2018, talks between China and the United States have been held during the G20 Summit and APEC.

It is worth mentioning that in addition to formal talks, there is also an “informal meeting” between heads of state. Leaders “meet” in a meeting space and mingle briefly for a few minutes. Some of the meetings are known as “corridor diplomacy” and are seen as a means for the two countries to ease tensions.

For example, after the Diaoyutai crisis broke out between China and Japan in 2010, then-Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan met by chance at the Asia-Europe Meeting in Belgium and talked for 25 minutes. In 2012, Japan and South Korea had tense relations over the issue of island sovereignty. After the APEC summit that year, the two heads of state also stood outside and communicated for five minutes.

“Sometimes, when some issues are too sensitive and neither party has formed a final position, it is necessary to hold informal talks.” Ruan Zongze, deputy director of the China Institute of International Studies, once pointed out that informal talks are more flexible. Not only do they remove “red tape”, they can be held during the breaks of meetings, and the two sides can also exchange only staged ideas.

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Image caption,U.S. President Joe Biden (left) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru, on November 16, 2024.

Is it easier to achieve substantive results through “sideline meetings”?

There are voices from the outside world that generally large-scale multilateral summits achieve little substantive results, and talks outside the main stage deserve more attention. The American think tank Council on Foreign Relations once cited expertsanalyzebilateral talks held during summits can sometimes lead to important international agreements.

If we look back at the early sideline talks between the Chinese and US presidents, we do find that many “results” were achieved. For example, after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022, Sino-U.S. relations rapidly deteriorated. In November, Xi Jinping and Biden met at the G20 Summit in Bali. At that time, the two sides reiterated their consensus on the Taiwan issue, competition between the two countries and the Russia-Ukraine issue.

Rosemary Foot, professor of international relations at Oxford University, oncedescribe“It seemed to be a productive meeting.”

Subsequent “Xi visits” were also held during the APEC summits in 2023 and 2024. The two sides agreed to resume high-level military dialogue and direct phone calls between leaders, and also agreed to work together to deal with the fentanyl issue.

The “Xi-Trump meeting” will be held again after six years. Rare earths, US agricultural products, fentanyl and TikTok agreements are expected to become the focus of the talks.

However, Zhuang Jiaying, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, believes that China and the United States may not achieve great results. In his view, APEC is just an “accidental” time point and platform for the two sides to hold talks. China and the United States may make partial adjustments, but the fundamental competitive relationship will not change.

One of the main factors is the duo’s style. Zhuang Jiaying pointed out that Trump often plays cards that do not follow common sense. “After negotiations, it seems that he will go back on some things, catching the other party by surprise.” Faced with the unpredictable Trump, Xi Jinping counterattacked with force. “Under such conditions, even if the leaders of the United States and China meet, there is no guarantee that there will be obvious progress.”

Song Wendi also believes that the “Xi-Trump meeting” will not reach any “grand agreement” between China and the United States, including the Taiwan issue that is of concern to the outside world. “At best, it will be a temporary, partial memorandum of cooperation (MOU) to buy both sides more time to resolve issues.”

Previously, the Wall Street Journal reported that Beijing may require the White House to publicly clarify that it “opposes Taiwan’s independence” rather than “does not support Taiwan’s independence” in exchange for a U.S.-China trade agreement and anchors the “One China” principle.

Song Wendi said that reaching such a complex “grand compromise” requires extremely high political trust between China and the United States. “That simply does not exist – and that trust is unlikely to be achieved under a transactional US administration.”

“If Taiwan is used as a trade concession, what can the United States get in exchange for something of equal value?” Song Wendi mentioned that the Trump administration may launch an investigation into China’s implementation of the 2020 trade agreement (Section 301) – this is an example that the Trump administration does not believe that China is a country that is “well-intentioned and keeps its promises.”

However, after representatives of China and the United States concluded the fifth round of economic and trade consultations in Malaysia a few days ago, Trump said that he expected to have “a successful negotiation” with Xi Jinping, and also revealed that the investigation into China may be canceled.

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Image caption,The last time a US head of state visited China was in 2017, when Trump received an extraordinary reception from China and called it a “state visit+”.

Will Trump officially visit China?

According to South Korean media Dong-A Ilbo, citing government sources, the “Xi-Trump meeting” will be held at Busan Gimhae International Airport. China and the United States also officially announced the venue arrangements for this meeting this week.

Trump once said that there would be a “pretty long meeting” with Xi Jinping, but South Korea’s National Security Office Director Wi Sung-rok said that because the meeting would be held in a third country zone and on a multilateral stage, “it will not take a long time to negotiate.”

Trump previously stated that he had received an invitation to visit China and that the time to visit China was “basically confirmed” early next year. He was even reported to have said, “I want to be nice to China.”

If successful, this will be the first official visit between leaders of China and the United States in eight years. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded yesterday that there is currently no news to release.

The Wall Street Journal has analyzed that the agreement to be reached at this “Xi-Trump meeting” is of a “truce” nature, setting a framework for future high-level visits between the two countries, and it also has symbolic significance for both countries – Trump can show that he is bringing Beijing back to the negotiating table on his own terms.

For Xi Jinping, if Trump’s visit to China takes place, it will also show the public that “even the president of the United States wants to come to China.” The article writes that in a period of continued uncertainty about the domestic economy, such a spectacle will become a “heavy political gift” and allow Xi Jinping to further enhance his image as a global statesman.

How might the renewed US-China dialog on climate change, as initiated at the APEC Summit, influence global efforts to meet Paris Agreement targets?

APEC Summit: Evaluating the Impact of Xi-Trump Diplomacy on Bilateral Relations and Considerable Outcomes

The San Francisco Reset: A Deep Dive into US-China Dialogue

The 2025 APEC Summit in San Francisco provided a crucial platform for a highly anticipated meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump. Coming amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and technological competition, the summit aimed to stabilize the fraught US-China relationship. This article analyzes the key takeaways from their diplomacy, assessing the impact on bilateral relations and outlining the substantial outcomes achieved. Key areas of focus include trade, technology, security concerns (specifically taiwan), and climate change cooperation.

Key Areas of discussion & Diplomatic Shifts

The Xi-Trump meeting wasn’t simply a photo possibility; it involved substantive discussions across several critical domains. Observers noted a shift in tone compared to the previous four years, with both leaders signaling a willingness to engage in pragmatic dialogue.

* Trade Negotiations: While a extensive trade deal wasn’t promptly announced, both sides expressed a commitment to restarting negotiations. Trump reiterated concerns about the trade imbalance and intellectual property theft,while Xi emphasized the need for a mutually beneficial economic relationship.Discussions centered around potential tariff reductions and increased market access. The phrase “trade war resolution” was frequently used in post-summit briefings.

* Technology & Semiconductor Controls: The US maintained its stance on export controls aimed at limiting China’s access to advanced semiconductors and technologies with military applications. However, there was a willingness to discuss specific cases and explore mechanisms to prevent unintended consequences for US companies operating in China. the concept of “tech decoupling” appeared to be softened, with a focus on “de-risking” rather than complete separation.

* Taiwan Strait & Security Concerns: This remained a sensitive topic. Trump reaffirmed the US’s “One China” policy but emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Xi reiterated China’s position on Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory. While no breakthroughs were achieved, the dialogue itself was seen as a positive step in managing this critical flashpoint. Discussions included military-to-military communication channels to reduce the risk of miscalculation.

* Fentanyl & Counter-Narcotics Cooperation: A notable outcome of the summit was a commitment to increased cooperation in combating the flow of fentanyl precursors from China. This addressed a key US concern and demonstrated a willingness to collaborate on issues of mutual interest.This is a direct response to the ongoing fentanyl crisis in the United States.

* Climate Change Collaboration: Both leaders acknowledged the urgency of addressing climate change and agreed to resume high-level dialogue on climate issues. This included discussions on renewable energy, emissions reduction targets, and joint research initiatives. The potential for climate cooperation was highlighted as a key area for future collaboration.

Substantial Outcomes & Agreements Reached

Beyond the diplomatic signaling,the APEC Summit yielded several concrete outcomes:

1. Working Groups Established: Joint working groups were established to address specific issues,including trade,technology,and counter-narcotics cooperation. These groups will be tasked with developing concrete proposals and recommendations for further action.
2. Fentanyl Precursor Crackdown: China pledged to take stronger measures to crack down on the production and export of fentanyl precursors, a critical step in addressing the US fentanyl crisis.
3. Military Communication Channels: Agreement to re-establish high-level military-to-military communication channels to reduce the risk of miscalculation and escalation in the Taiwan Strait.
4. Renewed Dialogue on Climate Change: Resumption of high-level dialogue on climate change, with a focus on renewable energy and emissions reduction.
5. Limited Tariff Adjustments: While not a comprehensive rollback, some limited tariff adjustments were announced, signaling a willingness to ease trade tensions.

Impact on Bilateral Relations: A Cautious Optimism

The Xi-Trump meeting at the APEC Summit represents a potential turning point in US-China relations. While deep-seated differences remain, the willingness to engage in direct dialogue and address areas of mutual concern is a positive progress.

* Reduced Risk of Escalation: The resumption of communication channels and the commitment to manage disagreements peacefully reduce the risk of further escalation in tensions.

* Potential for Economic Stability: The renewed focus on trade negotiations and the limited tariff adjustments coudl contribute to greater economic stability.

* Increased Cooperation on Global Challenges: Collaboration on issues like climate change and counter-narcotics demonstrates a willingness to work together on global challenges.

* Lingering Concerns: Concerns remain regarding China’s human rights record, its military buildup in the south China Sea, and its support for Russia. These issues will continue to be sources of friction in the relationship.

The Role of APEC in Facilitating Dialogue

The APEC forum itself played a crucial role in facilitating the Xi-Trump meeting. APEC provides a neutral platform for leaders to engage in informal discussions and build relationships. The summit’s focus