Breaking: Apple and Samsung Shipment Forecasts Downgraded Amid Tariff Uncertainty
In a surprising turn of events, Counterpoint Research has revised its growth expectations for global smartphone shipments in 2025, slashing the forecast from 4.2% to 1.9%. The primary driver behind this downward revision is the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policies.
Tariff Policies and Market Impact
Recall that President Trump announced a series of duties on commercial partners on April 2, aiming to boost domestic production in the United States. However, on May 12, an agreement was reached between Beijing and Washington to temporarily lower duties on products, offering some relief to the stock market. The agreement reduced U.S. duties from 145% to 30% on most Chinese imports and from 125% to 10% on U.S. goods for a period of 90 days.
IDC’s Revised Forecasts
Last week, International Data Corporation (IDC) also cut its growth predictions for global smartphone shipments for 2025 from 2.3% to 0.6%. IDC expects smartphones shipments to China to grow by 3% in 2025, driven by government subsidies. Conversely, Apple is expected to register a drop of 1.9% due to intense competition from Huawei, the general economic slowdown, and the lack of subsidies for most of its models.
Market Reactions and Expert Insights
Apple shares have an average target price of $238.79 for the next year, representing a potential rise of 17.47%. However, there are differing opinions among analysts, with 3 issuing bearish recommendations and 21 issuing bullish ones. The highest price target is $325.0, while the lowest is from Jefferies at $167.88. As of now, Apple shares are down by 0.50% to $202.26.
Future Prospects and Strategic Investments
Gene Munster of Deepwater Research estimates that Apple has about two years to perfect its AI strategy, but this will require significant investments. The future of smartphones hinges on the functions they offer, which will determine their long-term prospects. Share research can provide valuable insights into a company’s fundamentals and future expected profits, enabling analysts to create financial models and determine price targets and recommendations.
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