Armenian and Azerbaijani Peace Agreement: Prospects for 2025 and Insights Under Trump’s Administration

US Mediation Secures Armenia-Azerbaijan Deal, Leaving EU on the Sidelines & Raising Regional Concerns

A recent agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, brokered by the United States, has dramatically reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus. While hailed as a step towards peace, the deal – centered around a potential strategic corridor – has sparked anxieties in Iran and highlighted the diminishing influence of the European Union in the region.

Turkey was quick to endorse the agreement, viewing it as an chance to strengthen ties with Baku and possibly integrate Armenia into it’s economic sphere. This move would significantly bolster Ankara’s regional influence at the expense of Russia, which historically dominated regional security architectures like the CSTO and the OSCE Minsk Group.

However, the prospect of a new corridor, particularly one potentially controlled by the US and with Israeli backing, has deeply worried Iran. Analysts in Tehran see the development as a modern iteration of the “anaconda strategy” – a 19th-century doctrine of encirclement – effectively isolating the country. official statements from Iran express concern over “foreign interference” near its borders, with some officials labeling the agreement a strategic “alarm.”

The EU’s apparent marginalization in the peace process is striking. The US, leveraging its political capital and a swift, high-profile mediation effort, effectively bypassed the EU’s typically slower, consensus-driven approach. Brussels’ limited leverage – particularly in terms of security guarantees and economic influence – further contributed to its sidelined position. The EU’s preoccupation with crises in Ukraine, energy security, and internal politics also hampered its ability to mount a robust mediation effort.

Critically, the agreement also signals the abandonment of the EU observation mission in the region, raising concerns about the future security of Armenia.

The US intervention marks a notable shift in the dynamics of the Caucasus conflict, demonstrating Washington’s willingness to assert itself as a primary mediator. Whether this new corridor will truly deliver lasting peace, or simply redraw the lines of regional power, remains to be seen.

Source: https://lediplomate.media/2025/08/analyse-washington-caucase-paix-trump-armenie-azerbaidjan-prix-couloir-strategique/giuseppe-gagliano/monde/armenie-azerbaidjan/

What specific provisions regarding border delimitation are currently causing the most notable roadblocks in the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations as of August 2025?

Armenian and Azerbaijani Peace Agreement: Prospects for 2025 and Insights Under Trump’s Governance

Current Status of Negotiations (August 2025)

The fragile peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan,aimed at establishing a lasting resolution to the decades-long Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,remain in a critical phase as of august 2025. While a complete peace treaty hasn’t been signed, significant progress has been made in recent months, largely facilitated by the European Union and the United States. Key areas of discussion revolve around:

Border Delimitation: Establishing mutually recognized international borders is a primary hurdle. Progress has been slow, wiht disputes over specific territories continuing to stall negotiations.

Corridor Access: The proposed “Zangezur Corridor” – a transport route through Armenia connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave – remains a contentious issue. Armenia is wary of ceding sovereignty, while Azerbaijan views the corridor as vital for regional connectivity.

Rights and Security of Populations: Ensuring the rights and security of both Armenian and Azerbaijani populations within each other’s territories is paramount. This includes addressing the return of displaced persons and guaranteeing cultural preservation.

Nagorno-Karabakh’s Future Status: While Azerbaijan has reasserted control over nagorno-Karabakh, the future status of the region and the rights of its remaining Armenian population remain unresolved.

The Impact of a Potential Trump Administration (2025-2029)

A shift in US foreign policy under a second Trump administration could significantly alter the dynamics of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Here’s a breakdown of potential scenarios:

Shifting US Priorities & Regional Focus

Reduced Emphasis on Democracy Promotion: A Trump administration historically prioritizes transactional relationships over democracy promotion. This could mean less pressure on Azerbaijan regarding human rights and democratic reforms, potentially emboldening Baku in negotiations. Human Rights Watch reports, such as their analysis of the 2008 Armenian presidential election and subsequent violence, highlight the importance of accountability – a factor potentially downplayed under a Trump administration.

Increased Focus on Energy Security: The US may prioritize azerbaijan’s role as an energy supplier to europe, potentially strengthening its strategic partnership with Baku. This could give Azerbaijan greater leverage in negotiations with Armenia.

Potential for Reduced US Mediation: Trump’s preference for bilateral deals and skepticism towards multilateral institutions could lead to a reduced US role in mediating the peace process, potentially leaving more space for Russia or Turkey to exert influence.

Implications for Key Stakeholders

Armenia: armenia could find itself in a more vulnerable position under a Trump administration, particularly if US support for democratic reforms diminishes. Increased reliance on European partners and potentially Russia might become necessary.

Azerbaijan: azerbaijan could benefit from a more transactional US approach, potentially gaining greater leeway in pursuing its strategic objectives. However, a complete withdrawal of US engagement could also create instability.

Russia: Russia could seek to capitalize on any perceived US disengagement, attempting to reassert its influence as a key mediator in the region. This could lead to increased tensions with the West.

European Union: The EU’s role as a mediator could become more prominent if the US steps back. However, internal divisions within the EU regarding its approach to the conflict could limit its effectiveness.

Key Obstacles to a 2025 Peace Agreement

Several significant obstacles continue to impede progress towards a lasting peace agreement:

1. Mutual Distrust: Decades of conflict have fostered deep-seated distrust between Armenia and Azerbaijan, making compromise challenging.
2. Domestic Political Considerations: Both governments face domestic political pressures that limit their flexibility in negotiations. Nationalist sentiments remain strong in both countries.
3. external Interference: The involvement of external actors – Russia, Turkey, and Iran – adds complexity to the situation. Conflicting interests and agendas can undermine peace efforts.
4. Unresolved Humanitarian Issues: The fate of prisoners of war, missing persons, and displaced populations remains a major sticking point.
5. Territorial Disputes: Disagreements over the precise demarcation of borders and the status of contested territories continue to fuel tensions.

Potential Scenarios for the Remainder of 2025

Optimistic Scenario: Continued EU and US mediation, coupled with a willingness to compromise from both sides, could lead to a framework agreement by the end of 2025. This agreement would address key issues such as border delimitation, corridor access, and the rights of populations, paving the way for a comprehensive peace treaty in 2026.

realistic Scenario: Negotiations stall due to unresolved disputes and external interference. Sporadic clashes along the border continue, but a full-scale war is avoided. The status quo persists, with a frozen conflict and limited progress towards normalization.

Pessimistic Scenario: A breakdown in negotiations leads to renewed hostilities. A Trump administration’s disengagement exacerbates the situation, potentially leading to a wider regional conflict.

Benefits of a Prosperous Peace Agreement

A lasting peace agreement between Armenia and azerbaijan would yield significant benefits:

Regional Stability: Reduced tensions and increased cooperation would contribute to greater stability in the South Caucasus.

Economic growth: increased trade and investment would boost economic growth in both countries and the wider region.

* Improved Humanitarian Situation: The return of displaced persons and the resolution