The Long Shot Revolution: How Industry Starting Prices Are Rewriting the Rules of Horse Racing
Forget the fairytale upsets of Leicester City or the occasional 200-1 winner grabbing headlines. A quiet revolution has been unfolding in British horse racing since 2020, and it’s costing punters more than they realize. The number of 100-1+ winners isn’t just a statistical quirk; it’s a symptom of a fundamental shift in how starting prices are calculated, and the implications extend far beyond a bruised betting slip.
The Pandemic Pivot and the Rise of the Outsider
For decades, starting prices – the odds you get when betting in a shop or on-course – were determined by a survey of on-course bookmakers. When COVID-19 shut down racing to spectators, that system vanished overnight. In its place came a reliance on off-course prices, compiled by the “industry” collectively. While seemingly a practical solution, this change sparked immediate concern among traditional bookmakers.
Their fears proved well-founded. The switch, as many predicted, led to a “shaving” of prices on favorites, while simultaneously inflating the odds of outsiders. Essentially, the market became less efficient at reflecting true probabilities. A horse that might have been 50-1 in 2019 could now be trading at 100-1 or even higher. This isn’t about horses suddenly becoming more competitive; it’s about a change in how their odds are presented.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: A Clear Trend Emerges
The data paints a stark picture. Between 2015 and 2019, runners at 100-1 or greater won an average of 5.5 races per year, with a strike rate of 0.164%. From 2020 to 2024, that number jumped to 20 races annually, and a strike rate of 0.242%. While still a small percentage of the roughly 10,000 races run each year, the increase is undeniable. The recent Champions Day at Ascot, featuring two 100-1+ winners, wasn’t an isolated incident, but a continuation of this established trend. You can find further analysis of racing statistics at the Racing Post.
The Impact on Everyday Punters
For the casual bettor, the impact is subtle but significant. While the thrill of a long-shot win is undeniable, the consistent erosion of value on favorites is a slow burn. The rolling five-year average return from backing favorites has worsened from -6.6% in 2019 to -8.8% in 2025. This means that, on average, you’re losing more money backing the horses expected to win.
Beyond the Track: Implications for Market Integrity
The shift in starting prices raises broader questions about market integrity. While not suggesting any malicious intent, the current system creates an environment where bookmakers benefit from inflated outsider prices, potentially at the expense of informed bettors. This is particularly relevant in the retail betting sector, where a significant portion of bets are still settled at starting price.
Furthermore, the increased frequency of long-shot winners could contribute to a decline in public trust in the fairness of the sport. While upsets are part of the appeal of racing, a perception that the odds are systematically skewed could deter casual bettors and ultimately harm the industry.
What Does the Future Hold?
The current trajectory suggests that 100-1+ winners will continue to be more common than they were a decade ago, not because the horses are improving, but because the system is changing. Addressing this requires a serious conversation about the methodology for compiling starting prices. Reintroducing a greater degree of on-course price influence, or exploring alternative pricing models, could help restore market efficiency and fairness.
The long shot revolution isn’t about luck; it’s about a fundamental shift in the economics of horse racing. Understanding this change is crucial for anyone who bets on the sport, and for the long-term health of the industry itself. What are your predictions for the future of starting prices? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
