ASML Faces Growth Uncertainty as Tariff Concerns Loosen 2026 Forecast

ASML‘s 2026 Growth Mired in Tariff Uncertainty, Clouds Outlook

Amsterdam, Netherlands – Semiconductor lithography giant ASML is navigating a complex landscape as it prepares for the latter half of 2025 and looks ahead to 2026. While the company anticipates continued sales growth for the full year 2025, its outlook for 2026 is significantly clouded by ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the impact of tariffs.

For the third quarter of 2025, ASML projects net sales to range between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, a figure expected to remain largely consistent with the second quarter’s performance. The company’s gross margin is forecast to be between 50% and 52%, a slight decrease from the previous quarter.

Looking at the entire fiscal year 2025, ASML forecasts a healthy sales increase of approximately 15%, with a gross margin anticipated to hover around 52%. This sales growth rate is expected to outpace the previous year’s performance.

However, the more notable concern emerges when examining the 2026 outlook. ASML’s ability to provide concrete growth projections for the following year is hampered by the pervasive impact of tariffs and other macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, which could exert both direct and indirect influences on its operations and customer demand.

CFO Roger Dassen elaborated on the direct implications of tariffs during a recent earnings call, explaining that they could affect system sales to customers in the United States, the import of materials for U.S. manufacturing facilities, and the import of parts for U.S. field operations, as well as the export of U.S.-originating parts.The indirect impact of these tariffs, however, is proving more challenging to quantify. This uncertainty stems from the potential influence on broader economic indicators like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and overall market demand, which are difficult to predict with accuracy.

“No one knows even today, what’s the end state [with tariffs],” stated Pierre Fouquet, highlighting the fluctuating sentiment surrounding these trade policies. “Some people are getting more optimistic. Some people are getting more pessimistic. And I think when we talk about uncertainties, we mean both basically. So, I think our visibility because of discussion has a bit reduced, and therefore, we are being more cautious.”

It is this vrey uncertainty and a diminished visibility that prevents ASML from making definitive growth forecasts for 2026.

“Looking at 2026, we see that our AI customers’ fundamentals remain strong,” Fouquet commented. “At the same time, we continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments.Thus, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”

Despite a recent sell-off, ASML’s stock had demonstrated a solid performance earlier in the year, remaining up 8% year-to-date. the stock currently trades at a relatively high valuation of 31 times earnings, suggesting that a resolution to the tariff disputes could perhaps lead to a more attractive entry point for investors. Should the “tariff wars” see some form of resolution, ASML, operating within a robust and expanding industry, could present a compelling opportunity for those seeking exposure to strong growth.

How might a softening of US export controls on mature node technologies impact ASML’s revenue diversification strategy?

The Shifting Landscape of EUV Technology & Global Trade

ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant and dominant force in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, is navigating a period of increasing growth uncertainty. While demand for its cutting-edge technology remains high – fueled by the global race for advanced chip manufacturing – evolving geopolitical factors, specifically the easing of some tariff concerns, are prompting a recalibration of forecasts for 2026 and beyond. This impacts not only ASML’s revenue projections but also the broader semiconductor industry, including key players like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung.

Tariff Relief & Its Impact on ASML’s Order Book

For months, potential tariffs on ASML’s EUV systems destined for china loomed large, creating a significant overhang on the company’s long-term outlook. The US government’s restrictions on exporting advanced chipmaking technology to China aimed to slow down the nation’s semiconductor progress. Though, recent signals suggest a potential softening of this stance, with discussions around exemptions for certain mature node technologies.

This shift has several key implications:

Increased Chinese Demand: A loosening of restrictions could unlock pent-up demand from Chinese foundries like SMIC, perhaps leading to a surge in orders for ASML’s older, deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems. While not as lucrative as EUV, DUV still represents a considerable portion of ASML’s revenue.

EUV Order Timing: The easing of tariffs doesn’t necessarily translate to immediate EUV system sales to China. Restrictions on the most advanced EUV machines remain in place. However,it does alter the timing of potential future orders,making forecasting more complex.

Global Capacity Planning: Foundries worldwide are reassessing their capacity expansion plans considering the changing trade dynamics. This impacts ASML’s backlog and future system deliveries.

2026 Forecast Revision: A More Cautious Outlook

analysts are already factoring these developments into their projections. Initial forecasts for ASML’s 2026 revenue growth where aggressively optimistic, anticipating continued exponential growth in EUV system sales. Now, a more cautious approach is being adopted.

Here’s a breakdown of the key adjustments:

1. Revenue Growth Slowdown: Expect a moderate deceleration in overall revenue growth compared to previous estimates. While still positive, the pace will likely be less dramatic.
2. EUV System Shipments: The number of EUV systems ASML anticipates shipping in 2026 might potentially be slightly lower than previously projected, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand and global capacity adjustments.
3. DUV System Demand: increased DUV system orders from China could partially offset any slowdown in EUV shipments, but the lower margins on DUV systems will impact overall profitability.
4. Geopolitical Risk Premium: Investors are now assigning a higher “geopolitical risk premium” to ASML’s stock,acknowledging the inherent volatility in the global trade surroundings.

The Role of US-China Tech War & Export Controls

The ongoing US-China technology competition remains the central driver of uncertainty. Export controls, designed to limit China’s access to advanced semiconductor technology, are constantly evolving. ASML is caught in the middle, navigating a complex web of regulations and political pressures.

CHIPS Act Implications: the US CHIPS and Science Act, aimed at bolstering domestic semiconductor manufacturing, is indirectly influencing ASML’s business. Increased investment in US-based foundries will drive demand for ASML’s equipment, but it also creates a more fragmented global supply chain.

Dutch Export Regulations: The Netherlands, ASML’s home country, has also implemented export controls on advanced semiconductor technology, aligning with US policies. These regulations add another layer of complexity to ASML’s operations.

Supply Chain Resilience: ASML is actively working to diversify its supply chain and build greater resilience to geopolitical disruptions. This includes investing in alternative sourcing options and strengthening relationships with suppliers outside of China.

ASML’s Internal Strategies for Navigating Uncertainty

Despite the challenging environment, ASML is taking proactive steps to mitigate risks and maintain its leadership position.

R&D Investment: Continued heavy investment in research and development is crucial for maintaining its technological edge.ASML is focused on developing next-generation EUV systems with higher throughput and lower costs. High-NA EUV is a key focus.

Customer Collaboration: Close collaboration with key customers – TSMC, Intel, Samsung – is essential for understanding their evolving needs and aligning production plans.

* Service & Support: Expanding its service and support capabilities is a strategic priority. As the installed base of EUV systems grows