Atlantic Tropical Wave: Potential for Cyclogenesis Over Next Days

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Tropical Wave Emerging From Africa Shows Potential For Cyclonic Development

By Archyde News Desk | August 27, 2023

A Tropical Wave is expected to leave the West African coast within the next few days, and forecasters are monitoring its potential for cyclonic development. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami issued a statement Sunday morning outlining the system’s projected path and chances of intensification.

According to the NHC, the wave is forecast to move westward-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the latter part of the week. Conditions appear increasingly favorable for gradual development as it progresses.

Currently, the NHC estimates a 30% chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days. Experts are closely watching the wave for any signs of strengthening.

In addition to the African wave, another low-pressure system off the East Coast of the United States is also under scrutiny. This non-tropical low, located approximately 180 miles from the North Carolina coast, has a 50% chance of cyclonic development over the next 48 hours.

The NHC reports that this system is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for it to become a tropical or subtropical storm today or Monday, as it moves east-northeastward at around 10 mph, remaining well offshore of North Carolina.

Understanding tropical wave

What specific sea surface temperature range is identified as crucial for tropical cyclone development?

Current Status & location (August 3, 2025)

As of 15:00 UTC on August 3, 2025, a significant Atlantic Tropical Wave is located approximately 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.This system, designated invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is exhibiting signs of increasing institution and has a high probability of developing into a tropical depression within the next 48-72 hours. current data from satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a broad area of low pressure and disorganized thunderstorms. Tropical cyclone formation is becoming increasingly likely.

key Factors Supporting Development

Several atmospheric conditions are contributing to the potential for cyclogenesis:

Warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): SSTs along the projected path of the wave are currently 28-29°C (82-84°F), well above the threshold required for tropical cyclone development. These warm waters provide the necessary energy to fuel intensification.

Low Vertical Wind shear: Wind shear, the change in wind speed and direction with altitude, is currently low across the region. Low shear allows thunderstorms to remain vertically aligned, promoting further development.High wind shear inhibits storm growth.

Favorable Atmospheric Moisture: A moist mid-level atmosphere is present, providing ample moisture for thunderstorm development. Increased atmospheric moisture is a critical component.

Weakening of the Subtropical High: The subtropical high-pressure system, which typically steers tropical waves westward, is showing signs of weakening.This could allow the wave to slow down and possibly curve northward, increasing the threat to the Lesser Antilles and potentially the U.S. East Coast.

Projected Path & Intensity

current hurricane models (including the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF) show a range of possible scenarios. The consensus suggests a westward to west-northwestward track over the next few days.

Scenario 1 (Most Likely): The wave develops into a tropical storm and continues westward, passing near or over the northern Leeward Islands by August 6th-7th. Intensity forecasts range from 40-60 mph sustained winds.

Scenario 2 (less Likely): The wave encounters stronger wind shear and remains a disorganized tropical wave, with minimal intensification.

Scenario 3 (Concerning): The wave rapidly intensifies into a hurricane as it approaches the Leeward Islands, potentially posing a significant threat to the region. This scenario is less probable but cannot be ruled out given the favorable conditions. Rapid intensification is a growing concern in a warming climate.

Potential Impacts & Areas at Risk

The following areas should closely monitor the progress of Invest 93L:

Lesser Antilles: The northern Leeward Islands (including the Virgin Islands,Puerto Rico,and the Dominican Republic) are at the highest risk of experiencing tropical storm-force winds,heavy rainfall,and potential flooding.

Bahamas: Depending on the eventual track, the Bahamas could also be affected by the system.

U.S. east Coast: while it’s too early to determine the exact impact, the U.S. East coast should monitor the system’s development. A northward curve in the track could bring impacts as far north as Florida,Georgia,and the Carolinas. East Coast storms are frequently enough unpredictable.

Preparing for a Potential Tropical Cyclone

Taking proactive steps now can substantially reduce your risk:

Review Your hurricane Plan: Ensure your family has a well-defined hurricane plan, including evacuation routes and communication strategies.

Gather Supplies: Stock up on essential supplies, including non-perishable food, water, medications, flashlights, and batteries. A hurricane preparedness kit is essential.

Secure Your Property: Bring in outdoor furniture, secure loose objects, and trim trees and shrubs.

Stay Informed: Monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), your local National whether Service office, and trusted news sources. Pay attention to tropical weather outlooks.

Know Your Evacuation Zone: Determine if you live in an evacuation zone and be prepared to evacuate if ordered to do so.

Historical Context: Similar Systems

In 2017, Hurricane Irma followed a similar track, devastating the Leeward Islands. While Invest 93L is not currently projected to reach Irma’s intensity, it serves as a stark reminder of the potential for significant impacts from these systems. The 2020 hurricane season was also exceptionally active, highlighting the increasing frequency of strong tropical cyclones. Learning from past hurricanes is crucial for future preparedness.

Resources for tracking & Facts

National Hurricane Center (NHC): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Archyde.com Weather Center: [Link to Archyde’s Weather Section – Placeholder]

Local National Weather Service Office: [Link to NWS Website – Placeholder]

* Tropical Cyclone Updates: Search “tropical cyclone updates” on reliable news websites.