Washington D.C. – As President Donald Trump prepares to deliver his State of the Union address tonight, a unique form of political analysis is gaining traction: prediction markets. According to Kalshi, a platform where users can bet on the outcome of future events, there’s a strong likelihood the President will touch on a surprisingly diverse range of topics, from extraterrestrial life to the latest in artificial intelligence and even the sport of hockey. The betting odds suggest these subjects are far more likely to be mentioned than traditional political fare.
With the speech scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET, over $10 million in trading volume has already been placed on Kalshi regarding the content of Trump’s address, indicating significant public interest in anticipating the President’s remarks. This isn’t simply about guessing; it’s a data-driven approach to forecasting the speech, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders willing to position their money where their predictions are.
The most heavily favored topics, according to Kalshi’s data, are surprisingly specific. There’s a 96 percent probability Trump will mention “250,” a reference to the upcoming celebration of the nation’s 250th anniversary in 2026. Close behind are “Trillion” (95 percent) and “AI / Artificial Intelligence” (92 percent). The inclusion of “Olympics / World Cup” also ranks high at 92 percent, likely spurred by the recent gold medal win by the U.S. Men’s Hockey team at the Olympics in Milan, and their subsequent invitation to attend the address tonight.
Perhaps most intriguing is the 87 percent chance that the word “Alien” will be uttered during the speech. This surge in interest coincides with President Trump’s recent order to release government files pertaining to “alien and extraterrestrial life,” as reported by Kalshi. The timing suggests the President may address the topic, capitalizing on the renewed public fascination.
What Topics Are Less Likely to Appear?
While certain phrases are heavily favored, others are considered less probable. Kalshi’s markets indicate less than a 50 percent chance of hearing references to “Drill Baby Drill,” “Sleepy Joe,” or “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” This suggests a potential shift in focus from the more combative rhetoric often associated with the President’s past addresses.
Beyond Topics: Who Will Trump Mention?
The betting isn’t limited to keywords. Kalshi also offers markets on the individuals President Trump is likely to name during his speech. There’s a 92 percent chance he’ll mention former President Joe Biden, and an 87 percent chance he’ll reference deposed Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who was recently captured by U.S. Forces. Even higher odds are placed on mentions of Iran (95 percent), Venezuela (94 percent), and China (93 percent), signaling a continued focus on international relations.
The Length of the Address: A Market in Itself
Beyond the content, Kalshi is also facilitating betting on the duration of the speech. Currently, traders are forecasting a speech lasting 111.1 minutes. A 99% probability exists that the address will surpass one hour, with “80 minutes or above” showing a price tag of 88¢. The action doesn’t even out until after the 90-minute mark, with “95 minutes or above” having a 72% chance and “100 minutes or above” priced at 57¢. Trump’s last State of the Union address lasted 100 minutes, so a lengthy speech appears likely.
As President Trump prepares to address the nation, the prediction markets on Kalshi offer a fascinating glimpse into what observers anticipate. While the actual speech may hold surprises, the data suggests a focus on technological advancements, international affairs, and perhaps even a discussion about life beyond Earth. The address is expected to highlight his administration’s approach to immigration, military operations, and the economy during its first year in office, according to the Associated Press.
The State of the Union address remains a significant political event, and the insights provided by platforms like Kalshi offer a unique and engaging way to follow the unfolding narrative. What will the President actually say? We’ll find out tonight.
What are your predictions for tonight’s State of the Union address? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
