Bitcoin Approaches $100K Resistance Amidst Wider Crypto Weakness and Economic Distress Spillover From Red October

Bitcoin Plummets Below $104,000: Is This a Correction or a Reversal?

New York, NY – November 5, 2025 – Bitcoin is currently navigating a meaningful downturn, falling below the $104,000 mark and erasing nearly 4% of its value in a single day. This slide extends a multi-week correction that has wiped out over $400 billion in overall cryptocurrency market capitalization, raising concerns among investors and analysts. The decline stems from a confluence of factors, including widespread forced selling, diminished institutional appetite, and growing uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Forced Liquidations Fuel Market Descent

The recent price drop triggered a cascade of liquidations, with over $1.27 billion in leveraged crypto positions being eliminated in a 24-hour period-one of the largest single-day purges in recent months. CoinGlass data indicates that the majority of thes liquidations impacted traders who had bet on continued price increases,known as ‘long’ positions. As Bitcoin breached a crucial 200-day exponential moving average around $109,800, automated sell orders were enacted, accelerating the price decline to as low as $104,139.

Technical Analysis Signals Bearish Momentum

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has entered a short-term bearish phase. The cryptocurrency has repeatedly closed below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level,calculated from its April low of $74,508 to its October high of $126,199. A decisive breach of the 61.8% retracement near $106,450 occurred earlier this week.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has weakened to 35, levels not seen since April, signaling increasing downward pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also shifted to a negative signal on November 3.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Analysts are now closely watching key Fibonacci extension levels. The $100,000 mark is considered a critical psychological and technical threshold, coinciding with June’s swing lows and the 50% retracement point.A failure to hold this level could lead to a further slide towards the $92,000-$94,000 range. Should Bitcoin fall below $92,000, the next target could be the $74,000-$77,000 area, representing a potential 30% decline from current prices.

Level	Description
$100,000	Critical psychological and 50% Fibonacci retracement.
$92,000 – $94,000	61.8% Fibonacci retracement + 100% Fibonacci extension cluster.
$74,000 – $77,000	April’s trough and 161.8% Fibonacci extension; potential 30% drawdown.

Institutional Sentiment Shifts

Institutional investment has cooled in recent weeks. Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), including offerings from BlackRock and Fidelity, have collectively experienced $1.3 billion in net outflows since October 29. Spot Ether ETFs have also witnessed outflows, totaling nearly $500 million.On Monday alone, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded another $186.5 million in redemptions,continuing a trend of negative flows spanning over a week. The CME Bitcoin Futures annualized basis has contracted to 1.98%, a two-year low, indicating professional traders are avoiding long-term exposure. Even MicroStrategy, a significant corporate Bitcoin holder, saw a 5% decline in its stock price despite CEO Michael Saylor’s recent purchase of an additional 397 Bitcoin.

Macroeconomic Factors at Play

The Federal Reserve’s recent actions are also impacting market sentiment. Following a 25-basis-point rate cut last week, comments from Chair Jerome Powell suggesting caution regarding future cuts led to a reassessment of market expectations. The probability of another rate cut in December has fallen from 96% to below 70%. Statements from other Fed officials reinforced this hawkish shift, contributing to a stronger U.S. Dollar Index and a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield-both historically bearish for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

On-Chain Data Offers Mixed Signals

On-chain analysis reveals that long-term Bitcoin holders are largely driving the recent sell-off, taking profits after the considerable rally from April to October. Lookonchain data indicates that over 16,000 BTC have been transferred to major exchanges by historic wallets as October 1. However, the market has so far absorbed approximately 405,000 BTC in legacy supply without falling below the $100,000 level, suggesting underlying demand remains resilient. QCP Capital refers to this as a “legacy holder reset.” CryptoQuant’s NUPL metric, currently at 0.47,has dipped to its lowest level as April,historically marking accumulation phases.

Did You No? Bitcoin’s historical November returns average 42%, with positive gains recorded in 9 out of the past 12 years.

Looking Ahead

Despite the current downturn, Bitcoin still outpaces both gold and the S&P 500 over the last 12 months, tho its relative value against these assets has diminished slightly.As gold cools and equities gain momentum, Bitcoin could regain leadership as capital redistributes. Market makers anticipate Bitcoin to trade between $94,000 and $118,000 in the coming weeks.

Pro Tip: Keep a close watch on the $100,000 level. A sustained break below this mark may indicate a deeper correction.

Understanding Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate potential areas of support or resistance. They are based on the Fibonacci sequence,a mathematical formula found in nature. Traders use these levels to identify where prices might reverse direction or consolidate. Understanding these levels can help in anticipating potential price movements and making informed trading decisions. For more details, explore resources like Investopedia’s guide to Fibonacci retracements.

Frequently Asked Questions about Bitcoin’s Price Drop

1. What is causing the Bitcoin price drop? The decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including forced liquidations, weakening institutional demand, and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty.
2. Is this a good time to buy Bitcoin? The current market conditions are volatile. A cautious approach is advised, and investors should consider their risk tolerance carefully.
3. What are the key support levels to watch? $100,000, $94,000, and $77,000 are key support levels as identified by technical analysis.
4. How do macroeconomic factors impact Bitcoin? Federal Reserve policies, inflation rates, and the strength of the U.S. Dollar can all significantly influence Bitcoin’s price.
5. What does ‘legacy holder reset’ mean? This refers to a pattern where long-term Bitcoin holders take profits, potentially leading to a temporary price correction.
6. What is the historical performance of Bitcoin in November? Historically, November has been a positive month for Bitcoin, averaging a 42% return, however, past results are not indicative of future outcomes.
7. What is the significance of the RSI (Relative Strength Index)? An RSI below 30 typically indicates an oversold condition, which could suggest potential for a rebound.

What are your thoughts on the current Bitcoin price correction? Do you believe it’s a temporary setback, or a sign of a longer-term downturn? Share your perspective in the comments below!

What factors could contribute to profit-taking at the $100,000 resistance level for Bitcoin?

Navigating Bitcoin’s Price Action: A Complex Landscape

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently testing the $100,000 resistance level, a significant psychological barrier, as it contends with broader cryptocurrency market weakness and the lingering effects of a challenging October – frequently enough referred to as “Red October” in trading circles. This confluence of factors creates a complex environment for investors, demanding a nuanced understanding of the forces at play.the current Bitcoin price is heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, investor sentiment, and evolving regulatory landscapes.

The $100K Resistance: A Critical Juncture

Reaching $100,000 represents more than just a numerical milestone. It signifies a potential shift in market perception, moving Bitcoin further into the mainstream as a legitimate store of value. However, resistance at this level is expected. Several factors contribute to this:

* Profit-Taking: Long-term holders may view $100,000 as an opportune moment to realize profits, increasing selling pressure.

* Psychological Barrier: The round number itself can act as a psychological barrier, causing traders to hesitate.

* Increased Scrutiny: Approaching this level attracts increased media attention and regulatory scrutiny, potentially dampening enthusiasm.

Red October’s Echoes and crypto Market Sentiment

October 2025 proved to be a arduous month for the cryptocurrency market, with many altcoins experiencing substantial corrections. This “Red October” effect, historically linked to seasonal market trends and increased volatility, has left a lingering impact on overall sentiment.

* altcoin Underperformance: The weakness in altcoins suggests a risk-off approach, with investors flocking to perceived safe havens like bitcoin.

* Decreased Trading Volume: Lower trading volumes indicate reduced investor confidence and a wait-and-see attitude.

* Fear,Uncertainty,and Doubt (FUD): Negative news and market speculation contribute to FUD,exacerbating the downturn.

Economic Distress: A Global Headwind

Global economic headwinds are significantly impacting the crypto market. Concerns surrounding inflation, rising interest rates, and potential recessionary pressures are driving investors towards more conservative assets.

* Inflationary Pressures: Persistent inflation erodes purchasing power and increases the appeal of inflation hedges like Bitcoin,but also forces central banks to tighten monetary policy.

* Interest Rate Hikes: Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing liquidity in the market and potentially triggering economic slowdowns.

* Geopolitical instability: Ongoing geopolitical tensions add to the uncertainty,further fueling risk aversion.

Bitcoin’s Resilience: A Relative Strength Indicator

Despite the challenging environment,Bitcoin has demonstrated relative resilience compared to other risk assets. This suggests a growing recognition of its potential as a store of value and a hedge against conventional financial instability.

* Safe Haven Narrative: Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and limited supply appeal to investors seeking protection from government intervention and economic turmoil.

* Institutional Adoption: Increasing institutional interest and investment in Bitcoin provide a degree of stability and legitimacy.

* Halving Events: The upcoming Bitcoin halving event in early 2026 is anticipated to reduce the supply of new Bitcoin, potentially driving up its price.

Real-World Example: Scams and Security Concerns

The increasing value of Bitcoin also attracts malicious actors. recent reports,such as those discussed on the Polish Bitcoin Forum (https://forum.bitcoin.pl/viewtopic.php?t=38505), highlight the growing prevalence of scams targeting bitcoin holders. This underscores the importance of robust security measures and due diligence.

* Phishing Attacks: Scammers use deceptive emails and websites to steal private keys and access Bitcoin wallets.

* Fake Exchanges: Fraudulent cryptocurrency exchanges lure investors with promises of high returns, only to disappear with their funds.

* Social Engineering: Scammers manipulate individuals into revealing sensitive details or transferring Bitcoin to their control.

Practical Tips for Navigating the Current Market

Given the current market conditions,investors shoudl adopt a cautious and strategic approach.

1. Diversification: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify your portfolio across different asset classes.
2. Risk Management: Set stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and take profits when appropriate.
3. Due Diligence: Thoroughly research any cryptocurrency project before investing.
4. Secure Storage: Use hardware wallets or reputable custodial services to securely store your Bitcoin.
5. Stay Informed: Keep abreast of market developments and regulatory changes.

Understanding Key Metrics: Hash Rate and Network Activity

Monitoring key on-chain metrics can provide valuable insights into the health and strength of the bitcoin network.

* Hash Rate: The hash rate, a measure of the computational power securing the Bitcoin network, remains high, indicating strong network security.

* Transaction Volume: While transaction volume has decreased slightly, it remains above historical averages.

* Active addresses: The number of active Bitcoin addresses provides an indication