Bitcoin was the first financial asset to react to the outbreak of conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, experiencing an 8.5% drop in value on February 28, 2026, the day U.S. And Israeli forces launched initial strikes against targets in Iran. While the cryptocurrency initially fell alongside escalating tensions, it has since outperformed traditional safe-haven assets like gold, the S&P 500, and Asian equities over the subsequent two weeks, according to data analyzed by CoinDesk.
The initial strikes, targeting nuclear facilities, missile sites, and areas in Tehran including the residence of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered a surge in Iranian citizens turning to Bitcoin as a means of preserving wealth and transferring funds outside the country’s financial system, which was already facing instability. Chainalysis data indicates approximately $10.3 million in cryptocurrency flowed out of Iranian exchanges between February 28 and March 2, mirroring patterns observed during periods of domestic unrest and geopolitical shocks in 2025.
Despite subsequent negative headlines – including retaliatory missile strikes by Iran impacting Gulf states, and attacks on oil tankers – Bitcoin has repeatedly recovered to higher lows, establishing a rising floor between roughly $64,000 and $70,596. This pattern contrasts sharply with earlier this year, when a rapid liquidation event in February caused a significant drop in Bitcoin’s value and erased approximately $800 billion in market capitalization. The current market has demonstrated greater resilience, absorbing each wave of conflict-related news without repeating those forced sell-offs.
On February 28, Bitcoin bottomed at $64,000. Following Iranian missile strikes on March 2, the low point was $66,000. By March 7, after a week of sustained conflict, the price found support at $68,000. After attacks on tankers on March 12, it held at $69,400, and following an attack on Isla Kharg on Saturday, the lowest price reached was $70,596. Each successive dip has been met with increased buying pressure, with the range of support narrowing by approximately $1,000 to $2,000 per event.
While Bitcoin has experienced volatility, its performance has contrasted with other asset classes. Oil prices have risen more than 40% since the start of the conflict. The S&P 500 has declined. Gold has shown fluctuating values. Asian stocks experienced their worst week since March 2020. Only oil and the U.S. Dollar have outperformed Bitcoin during this period, benefiting directly from the conflict itself.
The resilience of Bitcoin has led some analysts to reassess its role as a safe-haven asset, a notion that was previously contested. It is increasingly viewed as a 24/7 liquidity pool, absorbing geopolitical shocks more rapidly than traditional markets. However, Bitcoin continues to experience sell-offs in response to negative news, but the speed and strength of its subsequent recoveries are accelerating.
Adding to the geopolitical complexity, former U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Friday night that he would “reconsider immediately” a previous decision to refrain from targeting Iranian oil infrastructure if Iran continued to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with a warning that any attack on its energy infrastructure would trigger retaliatory strikes against U.S.-linked facilities. The potential for disruption to global oil supplies, already flagged by the International Energy Agency as potentially the largest in history, remains a significant concern.
