Bitcoin Cycle Maintains $164K Target Despite False Breakouts

August 24, 2025

The Bitcoin market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and upward momentum, prompting analysts to reaffirm ambitious price targets. Current assessments suggest a potential surge to $164,000, building on the significant gains observed throughout 2024 and early 2025.

A Consistent Bullish Outlook

Optimism surrounding Bitcoin has been steadily growing since mid-September 2023, when the cryptocurrency traded around $26,000. Experts have consistently pointed to the four-year cycle inherent in Bitcoin’s price movements, suggesting that the current phase represents a “Mid Bull” period, setting the stage for a substantial rally. Projections indicated a potential range of $100,000 to $200,000 plus by the close of 2025, a forecast that increasingly appears attainable.

Reaching New Heights and Identifying Targets

On August 14, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $124,532. This milestone confirms the ongoing strength of the market. Applying Fibonacci extension analysis to recent price action suggests an ideal target zone between $164,000 and $216,000 remains within reach, particularly with over three months remaining in the current cycle. A long-term trading alert issued on March 31, 2023, recommended purchasing Bitcoin at $28,476, and has yet to issue a sell signal.

Key Dates & Levels	Details
Initial Bullish Signal	Mid-September 2023 ($26,000)
Long-Term Buy Signal	March 31, 2023 ($28,476)
Recent All-Time High	August 14, 2025 ($124,532)
Target Price Range	$164,000 – $216,000

Technical Indicators Support the Trend

Beyond cyclical analysis, several technical indicators corroborate the bullish narrative. Since bottoming out in late 2022, Bitcoin has maintained a consistent uptrend. The On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, for instance, has repeatedly broken above its downtrend line, signaling renewed buying pressure and confirming the continuation of the uptrend.

Furthermore, an examination of Bitcoin’s ancient price action reveals a pattern of extended consolidation periods followed by significant rallies. Approximately 28 months have been spent in consolidation, contrasted with roughly six months of rallying. This disparity implies that opportunities for substantial gains remain available, and investors should avoid prematurely exiting the market during periods of low volatility. Did You Know? Bitcoin has historically spent more time consolidating than rallying,a pattern suggesting potential for continued growth.

Navigating Consolidation and False Breakouts

Recent market behavior has exhibited characteristics of consolidation, with a false breakout occurring on August 14.However, a similar consolidation phase earlier in the year was resolved positively, with Bitcoin later rallying to new all-time highs. This resilience underscores the importance of adhering to the prevailing trend, leveraging Elliott Wave analysis, and heeding long-term trading signals. Pro Tip: Avoid reacting to short-term dips or false breakouts; focus on the overall trend and long-term indicators.

Considering a peak on December 1 as a potential benchmark, the blue trend channel suggests a price level around $149,300, still representing a 28% increase from current levels and moving closer to the $164,000 target.

understanding Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle

Bitcoin’s price movements have historically followed a four-year cycle, characterized by distinct phases: Accumulation, Bull run, distribution, and Bear Market. Understanding this cycle is crucial for long-term investors. The current phase is considered a ‘Mid Bull’ phase, suggesting significant upside potential remains before reaching the peak of the cycle.

Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoin

• What is driving the current Bitcoin bull run? The bull run is driven by a combination of factors, including increased institutional investment, growing adoption, and the inherent scarcity of bitcoin.
• What is the meaning of the $164,000 target? This target is based on Fibonacci extension analysis of recent price movements and represents a key level of resistance and potential profit-taking.
• How can investors mitigate risk during a Bitcoin bull run? Diversification, setting stop-loss orders, and conducting thorough research are essential risk management strategies.
• What role do technical indicators play in predicting Bitcoin’s price? Technical indicators such as the On Balance Volume (OBV) and Elliott Wave analysis can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movements.
• Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin? Financial experts suggest potential, but investment decisions should be based on individual risk tolerance and financial goals.

What are your thoughts on bitcoin’s future performance? Do you believe the $164,000 target is achievable?

Share your insights and join the conversation in the comments below!

What factors contribute to “false breakouts” in the Bitcoin market cycle?

Understanding the Bitcoin Market cycle

The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), operates in predictable cycles. These cycles, driven by investor sentiment and macroeconomic factors, typically follow a pattern of accumulation, bull run, distribution, and bear market. Currently, despite several perceived breakdowns, analysis suggests the ongoing Bitcoin cycle remains firmly on track to reach a peak target of $164,000. This isn’t simply optimistic speculation; it’s rooted in established cyclical models and on-chain data. Understanding these cycles is crucial for Bitcoin investing and navigating market volatility.

Decoding the Recent “False Breakouts”

Over the past few months, we’ve witnessed several instances where Bitcoin appeared to be losing momentum, even briefly dipping below key support levels. These were quickly labeled as “false breakouts” by seasoned analysts. But what causes them?

Profit Taking: After significant gains, large holders (whales) frequently enough take profits, creating temporary downward pressure.

Macroeconomic Headwinds: Global economic uncertainty, interest rate hikes, and geopolitical events can trigger risk-off sentiment, impacting Bitcoin’s price.

Market Manipulation: While less common, coordinated selling can create artificial price drops to shake out weaker hands.

Liquidation Cascades: Leveraged positions are vulnerable to sudden price swings, leading to forced liquidations that exacerbate downward movements.

These events, while unsettling, are normal within a bull market cycle. They represent healthy corrections, allowing the market to consolidate before the next leg up. The key is to differentiate between a genuine trend reversal and a temporary setback. Bitcoin price prediction models are constantly being refined to account for these nuances.

The $164K Target: Why It Remains Valid

The $164,000 target isn’t pulled from thin air. It’s derived from several analytical methods, most notably the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, developed by PlanB. While the S2F model has faced criticism, its historical accuracy in predicting Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory remains noteworthy.

Here’s a breakdown of the factors supporting the target:

1. Halving Events: Bitcoin’s programmed halving events, which reduce the block reward for miners, historically precede significant bull runs. The most recent halving in April 2024 has set the stage for the current cycle.
2. Scarcity: Bitcoin’s limited supply of 21 million coins is a fundamental driver of its value. As demand increases and supply diminishes, the price is expected to rise.
3. Institutional Adoption: Growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, evidenced by investments from companies like MicroStrategy and the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, is injecting significant capital into the market.
4. On-Chain Metrics: Analyzing on-chain data, such as the number of active addresses, transaction volume, and long-term holder behavior, provides valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movements.Metrics like Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) currently indicate we are still in the early to mid stages of the bull cycle.

Navigating Volatility: Practical Tips for Investors

The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile. Here’s how to protect your investments and capitalize on the ongoing bitcoin cycle:

Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Invest a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the price. This mitigates the risk of buying at the top.

Diversification: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify your portfolio across diffrent cryptocurrencies and asset classes.

Secure Storage: Protect your Bitcoin wallet with strong passwords and two-factor authentication. Consider using a hardware wallet for long-term storage. Remember, to obtain a Bitcoin address, a Bitcoin client must first generate a key pair consisting of a public and private key.

Long-Term Perspective: Bitcoin is a long-term investment.Don’t panic sell during temporary downturns.

Stay Informed: Keep up-to-date with the latest news and analysis from reputable sources.

Real-World Example: The 2021 Cycle

Looking back at the 2021 bull run, we saw similar patterns of false breakouts and corrections. Bitcoin experienced several pullbacks of 20-30% before ultimately reaching its all-time high of nearly $69,000. Investors who remained patient and adhered to a long-term strategy were rewarded handsomely. This historical precedent reinforces the likelihood of continued growth in the current cycle, despite short-term volatility.

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* Bitcoin price analysis